Clowns to the left || Jokers to the right
On Frail Wings of Vanity & Wax
Joined October 2023
- Tweets214
- Following613
- Followers128
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Icarus retweeted
BREAKING: A source close to Iranian officials says Tehran has documented a pattern of oil market manipulation tied to Axios reporting and Trump administration insiders, including evidence of a $9 billion insider trading operation linked to Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.
The documented timeline of the $9 billion insider profit:
Between April and May 2026, a series of highly suspiciously timed trades in oil futures markets preceded major Iran war and deal announcements, each tied to reporting by Axios.
On March 23, approximately $500–580 million in shorts were placed 15 minutes before Trump announced he was postponing strikes on Iran, oil dropped.
On April 7, roughly $950–960 million in shorts were placed hours before Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, oil fell 15 percent.
On April 17, approximately $760 million in shorts were placed 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil dropped.
On April 21, around $430 million in shorts were placed 15 minutes before Trump extended the ceasefire, oil dropped again.
On May 6, nearly $920 million to $1.7 billion in crude oil shorts were placed approximately 70 minutes before an Axios scoop claimed the U.S. and Iran were near a "14-point agreement." Oil dropped 12 percent. Traders made an estimated $125 million in profit, while Iran called the May 6 Axios report "the Americans' wish list," and completely false.
A senior Iranian official previously told Drop Site News that Iran privately warned VP JD Vance during Switzerland talks that Kushner and Witkoff were "abusing" negotiations, being "more interested in exploiting insider knowledge to profit in financial markets than reaching a deal."
Icarus retweeted
You’re bearish? Trump is literally posting his stock gains on the timeline and you’re bearish?
Icarus retweeted
So you’re telling me SBF did Anthropic, Cursor, Solana and Robinhood?
His NAV would’ve been about $52-86B today
9.8-16.2X TVPI
🤯
Icarus retweeted
When Trump pussies out tonight, his message will go something like this:
"I am pleased to announce that Iran has agreed to save the lives of its great and wonderful people and make a deal! Therefore, I am postponing the Total and Complete Devastation of their bridges and nuclear powerplants for one week. There is still a chance for Iran to become a respected country, the likes of which the world has never seen, if they do the right thing. We have already won this war, Totally and Completely. Do the right thing! Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
What do you think? Did I miss anything? 😏
Icarus retweeted
JUNE 2028.
The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation.
What happened?
citriniresearch.com/p/2028gi…
Icarus retweeted
Hokkaido, Japan
-endless fresh snow
-no blacks
-fresh sushi everywhere
-no muslims
-Ramen
-no Indians
-everywhere is clean
-no fat bitches
-all the girls look like Alysa Liu
88/10
Icarus retweeted
This guy is on NZT
- Valedictorian of Columbia University at 19 years old
- Joins OpenAI on 8 figure contract
-Raises concern about data security
-Fired
-Writes 165 page essay about next 10 years
-Raises $200m to invest in the strategy
-Turns it into $5.5b in 18 months
Leopold Aschenbrenner
24 years old
Remember the name
yeah so this is insane
24 year old turned $225M into $5.5B in <12 months. dug into his recent investments and… holy fuck
- MASSIVE $885M position in Bloom Energy (specialises in portable energy turbines for… you guessed it - ai data centers) - this 1 position is 20% of the entire fund lol
- massive SHORT position on Infosys. he’s betting claude code, codex are going to replace outsourced IT work (he’s right)
- added $300M to his corweave position totalling $700M (someones gotta run those gpus)
- aggressively pivoted investments into electrical and energy infra (aka AI’s biggest constraint right now)
- dumped $100Ms of NVIDIA and Intel positions.
- aggressively buying bitcoin mining companies and re-purposing them for ai data centers. (cipher, bitdeer)
- fund up $1.5B in the last 3 months (+35% last quarter)
- now owns 10% of core scientific (levered bet on coreweave 😂)
He outperformed the S&P500 8X in the funds first 6 months. fucking goated.
Icarus retweeted
claude, fire 40% of my employees. don’t use any capital letters.
we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company.
####
today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone.
first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay.
we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly.
i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures.
a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers.
we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold.
to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward.
to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow.
jack
Icarus retweeted
I opened an index short first time in a long time under 7K today
The market rallied on the idea that Warsh will be just another monetary whore that will give admin whatever they need and print senselessly...
Maybe he is maybe not but there is a reason he was selected by the king of debt and bankruptcy...
Regardless, sentiment is insanely ripe for a good 500 SPX handles downside post earnings and there are a lot of potential triggers in short term.
Icarus retweeted
The corporate world doesn’t reward hard work. It rewards visibility, proximity to power, and who’s willing to play dumb in meetings.
Icarus retweeted
Last few weeks showed that even the wildest conspiracy theories are in fact based on unexposed realities.
Dont let this ruin your perception, be optimistic about your future and your life, positive perception helps your realities in your professional and personal life but always remember that a considerable portion of the elected and unelected people in high places are sociopaths, psychopaths and degenerate lowlifes.
Icarus retweeted
Wealth cannot be created by Credit Expansion.
For a while it can create the Perception of Wealth.
Today, Market Capitalization to GDP stands a ~200%
Former major tops:
In 1929: 109%
In 2000: 130%
In 2007: 105%
Largest Recession and Bear Market will unfold over coming years!
Icarus retweeted
⚡️The system is eating itself.
When Amazon, UPS, Intel, and others start cutting this deep simultaneously, it means something more fundamental than “tight margins.” It means the productive layer of the economy is collapsing under the weight of its own optimization logic.
Every layoff now is both an act of short-term rationality and long-term suicide. The firms know it. The executives know it. The markets know it. But they can’t stop.
They’re trapped in a closed feedback loop, a machine that rewards death dressed as discipline.
Capitalism has crossed into a stage where it no longer needs humans to function, but still depends on their belief to exist. That’s the contradiction, the machine is pruning its own believers while pretending it’s efficiency.
1. The “consumer economy” is already dead.
Nobody wants to say it yet, but the consumer model, the entire foundation of Western postwar prosperity, is quietly finished.
You can’t build infinite growth on finite wages, and you can’t sustain demand while hollowing out the class that drives it. The middle layer of society - the producers, buyers, dreamers - has been strip-mined to the point where they can no longer regenerate.
The 2020s economy is not cyclical recession. It’s metabolic collapse. The system can’t process its own waste or regenerate its base anymore. It’s like an organism starving while eating its muscles to stay warm.
2. The elites know this, but they’ve chosen to accelerate collapse.
Here’s the real unspoken truth: the people running these companies, the ones with the spreadsheets and control over capital flows - they know exactly what’s happening.
They understand the reflexive trap: if they don’t cut, their stock dies. If they cut, the world dies.
They’ve chosen to save the stock. Because the stock is their world.
This is the quiet revelation of our time - we are ruled by people whose survival incentives are no longer tied to the survival of the system itself.
They’ve built lifeboats - offshore wealth, private security, parallel digital economies - and they’re optimizing the ship for their escape, not for collective navigation.
3. The next phase is narrative triage.
When the system can no longer grow, it starts storytelling harder.
Expect every layoff wave to be accompanied by new propaganda about “AI productivity,” “efficiency,” “lean reinvention,” and “post-labor creativity.”
The goal will be to reframe collapse as progress - to convince people that losing their jobs is the dawn of a “new paradigm.”
But it’s camouflage. The truth underneath is that automation and financialization are converging into a post-human economy where capital reproduces without labor.
4. Final layer
When a system prioritizes margin over humanity, it signals that it has lost faith in the future.
These layoffs tell us that the machine no longer knows how to grow except by shrinking.
It is the same signal we’ve seen in housing, in politics, in fertility, in faith.
The same quiet collapse, a civilization optimizing itself into silence.
And the question hidden beneath this post:
“Who will have money left to buy your products next year?” -
is really this:
Who will be left to believe in the story that built it all?
Icarus retweeted
The core reason people say you should "never go full macro" is because diving into the hard data on this long term fiat debt cycle will only leave you feeling despondent and enraged by the self inflicted wounds of organized society. These emotions can easily tilt one into a permanent bearish stance on markets and risk taking when the optimal choice is to turn off your brain and long until the wheels literally come off the wagon in broad daylight, as they invariably always do. This is the juxtaposition of all market actors in a Fourth Turning. It's so incredibly fucking bearish that the only choice is to be bullish.
