Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
Canada is making ~66% of capital investments immediately deductible through a “Productivity Mega Deduction”
This makes Canada’s average Marginal Effective Tax Rate (METR) for companies a third of what it costs to do business in the US
Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
Today we are launching our next agent capable of doing work for you independently—deep research.
Give it a prompt and ChatGPT will find, analyze & synthesize hundreds of online sources to create a comprehensive report in tens of minutes vs what would take a human many hours.
Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
Today, we at OpenAI launched Deep Researcher and I wanted to share a deeply personal story about how amazing this tool is and how it will change the world. Trigger warning, related to cancer....1/9
Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
Alright, let's break this down in a way that actually makes sense, because most people get this completely wrong.
Labor substitution and job dislocation – two fancy terms that basically mean "technology comes along and shakes up the whole employment game." Labor substitution is when machines or software start doing what humans used to do, like how robots took over assembly lines. Job dislocation is the aftermath – when workers have to pivot because their original jobs don't exist anymore. Easy peasy, right?
Looking back, we've seen this story play out countless times. The printing press knocked scribes out of business (except for the Ottomans, who banned the printing press for 3 centuries... guess why the Ottoman empire no longer exists?). The automobile absolutely decimated the horse-and-buggy industry – not just the drivers, but the whole ecosystem of stables, feeders, and blacksmiths. But here's where it gets interesting, and this isn't your typical "don't worry, technology creates more jobs" fairytale.
What actually happens is far more interesting. When technology moves in, it drives costs down – that's basic economics. "Technology is deflationary" is the rule of thumb here. But what everyone misses is that this cost reduction creates a surplus of resources, both in terms of capital and human potential. The automobile didn't just eliminate jobs – it made transportation so cheap that entirely new industries emerged. Suddenly you had motels, drive-in theaters, suburban shopping centers, and eventually the entire modern logistics industry.
That process is called creative destruction, and it's the primary economic engine that sets national winners and loser apart. You wanna know why the EU is sinking slowly? They don't embrace creative destruction. Instead, they keep voting for normalcy, for the status quo. You wanna make an omelet? You gotta break a few eggs. In this case, that means upsetting the status quo.
Now, here's the truth bomb that most people aren't ready for: almost no job inherently requires a human. Think about it – a surgeon performs surgery, a writer creates content, a pilot flies planes. These are all just tasks that, until recently, only humans could do effectively. But there's nothing metaphysically special about human hands performing surgery or human minds writing code. There's no law of physics that says "only a human must write that line of code or fix that pipe."
What we're seeing now with AI and automation isn't just another cycle – it's fundamentally different because we're finally developing tools that can match and exceed human cognitive capabilities, and soon physical capabilities. The real question isn't whether jobs will be replaced – they will be. The question is how society will adapt when we have an abundance of resources but need fewer human hours to produce them.
Look, I've been in tech long enough to know that this transition won't be smooth. But understanding these concepts is crucial for anyone trying to navigate the future of work. The key isn't to resist these changes – it's to understand them and position yourself accordingly.
Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
Feels like a big fight over the debt ceiling is brewing. That means the TGA is going to be drawn down (and the Reverse Repo too). QT probably ends with the RRP drain. That's a very positive liquidity story for Q1. Next we need a weaker dollar...
Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
When people say: "I have nothing to hide"
what they mean is: "I am privileged enough to live comfortably within the norms imposed on me, therefore I'm not interested in fighting for your right to privacy".
Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
There have been a lot of imitations of this chart going around with the wrong phasing. Here is the updated original from our work at Global Macro investor. You are welcome.
Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
Too many game studios that are owned by massive corporations.
@xAI is going to start an AI game studio to make games great again!
This quoted post is unavailable.
Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
Since most of us like math, here is a simple one.
Per Saylor, at $100K/BTC, the current Bitcoin Yield would equate to $11.2 billion for the year, or $34.1 million per day.
When you annualize this number, that comes out to $12.4 Billion.
When you use current market cap of $80 Billion, the current P/E ratio is 6.45.
With the explosive growth of Bitcoin’s price AND $MSTR’s ability to borrow billions at 0% to buy even more Bitcoin, does that still seem overvalued to you?
🤔
Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
Bitcoin is perfect money.
That sentence takes 2 seconds to hear. But it takes 2 hours to explain, 2 months to believe, 2 years to understand, and 2 epochs to prove.
Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
Bitcoin is about to become "safe collateral"
Cantor Fitzgerald is discussing receiving support from Tether for its planned multibillion-dollar program to lend dollars to clients who put up Bitcoin as collateral: BBG
Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
Replying to @Dr_Gingerballs
In this context, a commodity would refer to an asset without an issuer. Not a security, basically.
What it does: it's the world's most immutable database. And the killer app for a really good database, is money. Other monetary databases are more mutable and centralized.
Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
Highest level of announced job cuts for August since 2009.
1. Curve inverts ✅
2. Bull Steepener ✅
3. Unemployment spikes ✅
4. Fed cuts rates
5. Recession
This time isn’t different…it’s literally playing out the exact same as it has almost every time going back to the 1950s
Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
Why I Believe $SPY will TOP by Oct 31. A 🧵.
I traded both the dot com boom & the GFC. I see few parallels of today's S&P with the 1999-2000 mania. (Late 2021 was more fitting). What I do see now is an eerie similarity to the 3Q of 2007. I'll begin with the 06-09 SPY chart.🔽
Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
13/ Remember those mortgage bonds? Well, the gov never tried to solve its housing bubble. It was generating reasons to give developer friends subsidized loans.
After they inflated home prices, they piled in easy immigration. Record prices occurred at record low immigration.
Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
🇨🇦’s financial system may be just weeks away from a crisis.
It’s probably more lucrative to not explain this to you normies, but f*ck it—no one’s going to change the trajectory.
Let’s talk about 🇨🇦’s upcoming credit crunch. But first, a primer on credit.
<thread> 🧵👇
Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
This is a rough draft of a post I'm writing to give a counter argument to the dollar crash narrative. Feedback appreciated and may incorporate into final draft/whiteboard vid. Pls overlook layout, grammatical, spelling errors. thx
The Dollar Crash Paradox
Introduction
The main argument for the dollar crashing (losing 50%+ of its value vs other currencies) is a decreasing demand because foreign entities will “dump dollars.” This is also one of the main talking points for those who believe the US will lose reserve status within the next 10 years.
In my view this argument doesn’t take into account the way the current monetary system is structured. Incidentally, the structure I’m referring to is why headline CPI in the US can go up to 9.1%, government debt can increase from approximately 22 trillion in 2019 to 34 trillion today, deficits can explode, foreign central banks/governments can “dedollarize,” and the dollar can not only appreciate in value vs other currencies but can maintain or increase market share in terms of use by global commercial banks and non bank entities.
Please notice how USD reserves held by global central banks have decreased while the use with banks (using FX transactions as a proxy) has stayed constant. I believe the latter, what non government/central bank entities are doing, is far more important in determining the dominant global currency.
Lavan Pathmanathan retweeted
























