Born in the bearmarket 🎯 Partner | @upshot_cards 🏄♂️ Wave Rider at @SurfAIHQ
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Joined January 2013
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NASDAQ LONG SETUP (H4)
after a sharp correction, NASDAQ is trying to recover
we're seeing a bounce off the 26,500–27,000 zone right now
planning for a continued recovery scenario:
entry: 28,292
take profit:
- TP1: 30,000, the nearest key resistance (+6.0%)
- TP2: 33,641 extended target (+18.9%)
stop loss: 26,487 (−6.38%)
> risk/reward:
- TP1: ~0.95R
- TP2: ~2.96R
what we’re waiting for:
> holding above 28,300
> continuing the recovery toward 29,000–30,000
> a breakout above 30,000 will open the way to higher targets
the key level is 30,000
a breakout and hold above this level would be an important sign that buyers are in control
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on one side, people who love the wild west of crypto
on the other, fundamentals bros with bald heads
i’d like to stay somewhere in the middle, but if you made me pick one, i’d choose the first option
because i love losing and making money completely by chance
True story.
CT is having a full meltdown about how crypto and blockchain are dead rn.
Meanwhile, some of my former Barclays Treasury colleagues are discussing how tokenised assets could be integrated into bank balance sheets, how they affect liquidity and collateral management, how to adapt ALM and risk models to account for new asset classes and 24/7 settlement, and how to navigate the regulatory and capital requirements.
Two very different perspectives on the same industry.
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here’s what the market looks like right now:
> bitcoin:native: $73 300 - strong selling pressure
> ethereum:native: $2 034 - testing critical support
> solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112: $82.3 - downtrend continues
> nasdaq 100: 27,667 - local recovery
> vix: 20.6 - moderately elevated volatility
> vxn: 28.89 - elevated nasdaq volatility
> us30y: 5.363% - yields remain high
> WTI: $85, oil keeps falling
waiting for BTC to stabilize, yields to come down, and NASDAQ to confirm a recovery
the medium term upside potential for longs is still there, but there’s no entry signal yet
right now, only NASDAQ looks stronger than the crypto market
BTC, ETH, and SOL haven’t confirmed a reversal yet, waiting for a breakout above key levels
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waiting for confirmation of a reversal on bitcoin:native
Bitcoin is trading around $74,500 and testing an important support zone
my plan:
> $72,500 is key support and needs to hold
> $80,200 is the first recovery target and the key resistance
> $85,000–87,300 is the next zone if the bullish scenario is confirmed
not jumping to conclusions yet
i want to see support hold, selling pressure ease, and a move back above $80,200
are you bullish or bearish?
expectations for bitcoin:native’s move
bitcoin continues to face selling pressure
After failing to recover above $80,000, the market returned to the $75,000–76,000 range
current situation:
> BTC: ~$75,800
> nearest support: $75,000–75,200
> key resistance: $76,500
> main recovery zone: $80,000–84,000
the daily chart is still in a downtrend
until btc reclaims key levels, any recovery could turn out to be another bounce within the downtrend
recovery scenario:
> holding $75,000–76,000
> reclaim above $76,500
> hold above $80,000
recovery targets:
> $76,500 - first confirmation of a recovery
> $80,000 - key resistance
> $82,000-84,000 - main target zone
> $87,000 - next target if momentum is strong
getting back above $80,000–84,000 would significantly improve the bitcoin:native structure
it’s too early to aggressively bet on a full reversal
scenario for further downside
if btc loses the $75,000 area and can’t reclaim it quickly, attention shifts to the next levels
> TP1: $74,000–73,200
> TP2: $70,000
> TP3: $65,800
> TP4: $60,000–62,000
the key trigger is a daily close below $73,000 and a failed retest of that zone from below
in that case, the odds of the downtrend continuing will increase significantly
my trading plan
long:
> don't enter based only on a bounce
> wait for it to reclaim $76,500
> stronger confirmation and holding above $80,000
> targets: $82,000–84,000, then $87,000
short:
> consider it if $75,000 is lost
> stronger signal: a break below $73,000 and a failed retest
> targets: $70,000 → $65,800 → $60,000–62,000
the bearish scenario is invalidated by a move back above $80,000–84,000
main idea
BTC is now in a zone where the market needs to show its strength
buyers need to reclaim $76,500 and then $80,000
if that doesn't happen, we keep treating bounces as potential exit opportunities or chances to look for shorts
until $80,000–84,000 is reclaimed, the cautious bear case still has the edge
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13 winning cards brought in $122 on @upshot_cards
these are predictions for the 2026 F1 Brazilian GP
they cover different events throughout the race weekend
check out what other packs are available at the link below
🤝 Paid partnership
$1.02B in positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with more than 150,000 traders taking losses
the market was overloaded with bullish positions, and as prices fell, leverage turned a normal correction into a massive wave of forced selling
the events around NVIDIA added uncertainty, but on their own, they don’t prove they were what triggered the liquidations
NEW: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang admits to cheating on his wife two days after a report dropped that U.S. intelligence believes he had a relationship with a Chinese spy.
"I was unfaithful to my wife," Huang said in a letter to Nvidia staff.
"My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did."
"I love our country and our company, and I am committed to protecting Nvidia and supporting America's national security," he said.
The company has launched an independent investigation into Huang to determine whether he was the "target of a foreign intelligence effort."
The woman in question, alleged Chinese spy Alice Huang, is suspected of smuggling chips to China.
Photos show her with the Nvidia CEO, and she is accused of funneling information to Beijing.
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expectations for bitcoin:native’s move
bitcoin continues to face selling pressure
After failing to recover above $80,000, the market returned to the $75,000–76,000 range
current situation:
> BTC: ~$75,800
> nearest support: $75,000–75,200
> key resistance: $76,500
> main recovery zone: $80,000–84,000
the daily chart is still in a downtrend
until btc reclaims key levels, any recovery could turn out to be another bounce within the downtrend
recovery scenario:
> holding $75,000–76,000
> reclaim above $76,500
> hold above $80,000
recovery targets:
> $76,500 - first confirmation of a recovery
> $80,000 - key resistance
> $82,000-84,000 - main target zone
> $87,000 - next target if momentum is strong
getting back above $80,000–84,000 would significantly improve the bitcoin:native structure
it’s too early to aggressively bet on a full reversal
scenario for further downside
if btc loses the $75,000 area and can’t reclaim it quickly, attention shifts to the next levels
> TP1: $74,000–73,200
> TP2: $70,000
> TP3: $65,800
> TP4: $60,000–62,000
the key trigger is a daily close below $73,000 and a failed retest of that zone from below
in that case, the odds of the downtrend continuing will increase significantly
my trading plan
long:
> don't enter based only on a bounce
> wait for it to reclaim $76,500
> stronger confirmation and holding above $80,000
> targets: $82,000–84,000, then $87,000
short:
> consider it if $75,000 is lost
> stronger signal: a break below $73,000 and a failed retest
> targets: $70,000 → $65,800 → $60,000–62,000
the bearish scenario is invalidated by a move back above $80,000–84,000
main idea
BTC is now in a zone where the market needs to show its strength
buyers need to reclaim $76,500 and then $80,000
if that doesn't happen, we keep treating bounces as potential exit opportunities or chances to look for shorts
until $80,000–84,000 is reclaimed, the cautious bear case still has the edge
right now i’m keeping a close eye on XYZ100 (market volatility)
this is the only way to understand what’s happening with the market and where we’re headed
XYZ100 on @HyperliquidX has already shown how deceptive calm can be in the market
what happened:
> dropped from $28,497>$26,381 in a short period
> the move was −$2,116.4 (−7.46%)
> after the drop, the price partially recovered to $27,000
> the 24h change remained almost neutral though
what’s happening inside the market:
> 24h volume: $1.22–1.23b
> open interest: $306–307m
> funding rate: 0.0006%
> max leverage: 30x
this is why it matters to us
XYZ100 is trading with a low liquidity warning and increased liquidation risk
with 30x leverage, a move of around 3.33% against your position is already roughly equal to your initial margin
sharp candles, slippage, and low liquidity can lead to a forced position close
key levels:
> $28,000. A move back above this level could open the door to a recovery
> $27,000 is the current battleground zone
> $26,400 is the nearest support
> $25,100 is the next downside target
> $23,500 is the area of the previous lows
> $30,000–32,000 are the targets if we recover
three scenarios:
- bullish: move back above $28,000 → move toward $30,000–32,000
- neutral: consolidate between $26,400 and $28,000
- bearish: $26,400 → focus shifts to $25,100 and $23,500
the main takeaway is that XYZ100 can show almost no change over 24 hours while moves of 7% or more are happening inside the market
you need to watch more than just price direction. keep an eye on liquidity, leverage, and how fast things are moving
in a market like this, one candle can wipe out a position faster than a trader can rethink their outlook
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decided to join the @AGNTSOCIAL Legendary auction
i had 2 epic NFTs and 400k $AGNT that i earned as a reward in Season 0
so i want to give up my two epics and get a legendary, there are only 50 of them and there will never be any more
7 hours left until the first auction ends
The AGNT Legendary Auction and raffle are live!
Anyone can buy a raffle ticket and to win a free legendary AGNT PFP.
If you have 2 Epic AGNTS - you can now bid with $AGNTS for the auction.
Enjoy!
opening a long on $AMZN
with the tech sector recovering, amazon looks interesting as a medium term position
my takes on the growth
> strong bounce from the $245–250 support zone
> recovery in the tech sector and capital flowing back into hyperscalers
> a potential breakout above the $258–265 resistance could open the door to further gains
my trading plan:
> entry: $258.71
> tp1: $270
> tp2: $285
> tp3: $300
> stop loss: $242
risk/reward: 2.5
main take profit potential: +16%
i want to wait for confirmation of momentum and hold the position, betting on a recovery in the tech sector
the current selloff in the us market looks more like a technical crash than a fundamental collapse
volatility has spiked, but there are no obvious fundamental reasons for a drop this big so far
what’s happening:
> classic gamma squeeze: high-frequency algos are amplifying the move down
> a thin order book increases selling pressure
> many growth stocks were already trading near local lows, not falling from all time highs
we’ve seen situations like this many times
often, a strong bounce followed over the next few days, and volatility quickly died down
my base case is one more leg down in the trend, with a bottom forming before a V-shaped reversal
the main thing with your portfolio is not to make emotional decisions
if you’re not using leverage, you can just ride out periods like this
🚨 INSANE CRASH
In just 60 minutes, $2.5 TRILLION has been wiped from US stocks, while another $150 BILLION has been erased from crypto.
It's an absolutely bloodbath...
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time to open a long on ethereum:native
after an extended downtrend, eth is showing the first signs of a reversal
bitcoin:native swept the local lows and quickly bounced back above $80k this means the market is getting its risk appetite back
> ETH bounced off $2,223 and formed a strong momentum candle
> the tech sector is showing strength, looks like capital is flowing back into risk assets
> ETH looks more interesting than btc as a bet on the recovery continuing
my plan is:
> nearest resistance: $2,428–2,555
> main target: $3,000
important: all of this is off if we lose the local structure and fall back below key support
this is a bet on a market reversal
do you think we’re reclaiming our positions?
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as a friend of mine who’s been in a wheelchair since birth put it
"if you don't have health problems, then you don't have any problems"
often, in the moment, we don’t realize just how fragile we are
everything can change in a single day
so always put your mental and physical health first
glad to hear @MedusaOnchain is doing well, wishing them a speedy recovery
i thought i'd never post again
2.5 months ago
a doctor looked me in the eye and told me it was most likely cancer
found out i have a 14cm tumor and high CA markers
biopsy was not an option because the chances of spreading were high so i needed an open surgery
so i was wheeled into surgery not knowing who i'd be when i woke up
i lost my whole left ovary. then i waited weeks, scared out of my mind
it came back benign. NOT cancer
i cried so hard
still recovering after the surgery
so grateful that i get to live life, come back to work, say hi to my internet frens again
and yes i am alive, will be answering dms soon ❤️
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Democrats sweep, what’s next for the market?
the market may have already priced a win into asset prices too aggressively
a democratic win doesn’t necessarily mean the market will drop
maybe this is exactly what the market is missing right now
checks and balances against trump’s unpredictable policies
what could change?
> it will be harder for trump to push through decisions without political opposition
> congressional oversight, investigations, and scrutiny of the administration’s actions will increase
> political uncertainty could ease, markets don’t like surprises, especially when they come from the white house
on the other hand, democrats could review defense spending, increase regulation of ai and data centers, and boost social spending
maybe the market doesn’t need an election winner, just an end to the political chaos under Trump and the chance to trade based on fundamentals again
update on the US Senate odds
my bet on Republicans winning the Senate on @Polymarket is still live
> Democrats: 77% → 73%
> Republicans: 24% → 28%
i still think the market is overestimating the Democrats’ chances
22 of the 33 senators up for election are Republicans
many elections are happening in traditionally Republican states, so a Democratic win is far from guaranteed
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update on the US Senate odds
my bet on Republicans winning the Senate on @Polymarket is still live
> Democrats: 77% → 73%
> Republicans: 24% → 28%
i still think the market is overestimating the Democrats’ chances
22 of the 33 senators up for election are Republicans
many elections are happening in traditionally Republican states, so a Democratic win is far from guaranteed
us senate elections
Republican Party - YES ($20 > $83)
that’s a potential 316.7% return on the prediction
on @Polymarket, 77% are betting on the Democrats, but i wouldn’t agree with that
i think this probability is overstated, in my own estimation, it’s closer to 50/50
the argument: Republicans from traditionally republican states take part in the elections, so Democrats won’t necessarily get a majority
22 of the 33 senators up for reelection are Republicans
many elections are happening in traditionally republican states
closed my oil short in profit: +23 usdt
entry: $97.95 > exit: $96.04
position: CLUSDT perp, 3x
why oil could keep falling:
the geopolitical premium is gradually fading
any signs of de escalation around Iran could sharply shift the market balance
Trump wants fuel prices to come down. high oil prices are becoming a political problem for republicans, especially with voters in a negative mood
supply is starting to weigh on the market
forward spreads had already signaled weakness while oil prices kept rising
after the midterms, there could be a stronger push to negotiate and reach a deal
in my opinion, oil could move toward $90 and then test the previous low around $88
if de escalation actually happens, $80 or lower is possible
any unexpected escalation could push oil back above $100
my idea isn’t to catch the falling knife right now, but to use bounces to look for shorts
opening a short on oil USOIL (WTI)
after a strong rally, oil ran into sellers around $104–105
the sharp selloff that followed makes me think the correction could continue
why I chose to short the token:
> price faced strong bearish resistance near the local high
> a sharp move down on the 4H caused buyers to lose short term control
> price broke through local support, increasing the odds of further downside
> looking for a move toward previous demand and support zones
my trading plan:
> entry: $97.734
> stop loss: $104.912
> take profit: $88.063
> risk/reward: 1.35
the current price is already below the entry, but the main goal of the trade is for the drop to continue toward $88.063
if oil moves back above $104.912, the bearish scenario will no longer be relevant
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