Liz George Barker

The Consequences of Liberation Day Following up on my post below from earlier this week, now that we see yesterday's tariff announcements, it appears to me that the first order consequences of them will be significantly stagflationary in the U.S. and significantly deflationary/recessionary in sanctioned countries. As for the second order consequences, we will see other countries' responses, significant policy changes in all countries to try to negate these undesired effects with policy tools at their disposal (most importantly via their monetary and fiscal policies). I also think negotiations and changes in what the U.S. policies will end up being will come as second order consequences. For example, we have seen reciprocal tariffs by China (which if enacted and followed by other countries will have huge effects), and, as I mentioned in my earlier article, I can imagine negotiations taking place over a China-U.S. deal to strengthen China’s RMB relative to the USD in exchange for some trade relief. If that were to happen, it would be more deflationary and depressing for China, which in turn would need to lead to an easier monetary and/or fiscal policy in China. You get the picture. We have in store many big surprises and changes ahead. To reiterate what is clear in any case and should be kept in mind is that… …1) the production, trade, and capital imbalances (most importantly the debts) must come down one way or another, because they are dangerously unsustainable for monetary, economic, and geopolitical reasons (so the current monetary, economic, and geopolitical orders must change in big ways)… …2) they will likely come with abrupt, unconventional changes (like those I describe in my new book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle) and… …3) the longer term monetary, political, and geopolitical effects will depend mostly on the trust in the quality of the debt and capital markets as a safe store-hold of wealth, countries' productivity levels, and the political systems that make countries attractive places to live, work, and invest. Speaking of balance, I hope that your portfolio is balanced in the ways that I won’t digress deeply into here but have described previously in my books (i.e., across asset classes and geographies in an uncorrelated way and informed by which assets do well in different inflationary and growth environments). Expect the ride ahead to produce some very big tests and shakeouts that will be great tests of investors’ skills as the critically important monetary, domestic political, and international geopolitical orders are breaking down. Frankly, I look forward to this challenge as it is during such challenging times in the game that the opportunities make a big difference and distinguish oneself are the greatest. The views expressed in this article are mine and not necessarily Bridgewater’s.