Longleaf Picks

Week 8 results, every pick graded All picks: 32-23-1 Unanimous: 6-5-1 Free picks: 2-1 Good or lucky? Where our season sits on the curve, plus our takes on the week's big games 👇 longleafpicks.com/week-8-res…

1000%. So many of these scam artists out themselves because they don’t understand this. You also really can’t prove if you’re lucky or good just based on win rate. We are running 55.2% ATS on 676 bets. (Posted on our website’s home page) In theory, based on win rate alone, there is a very small chance that this is just luck. We have other ways to prove it though ;)

Something I see a lot online is “If the information is so good why hide it behind a paywall?” The answer is that if you have a real edge you need to hide it bc public information influences markets. This is why models like FPI are useless ATS even though they are top performers. They are public so the information is priced into the line. If someone is giving out lots of free picks it’s safe to assume they are not putting money on them or it should be suspect that they have any real edge at all. #BettingX #BettingTips #BettingTwitter

Week 8 power rankings. Who's overrated?

Vegas doesn’t manipulate lines to favor certain teams just because. Even if you really believe this. The idea that you could just easily search up this information on X is just… wild. Vegas always sits the line where they will make the most money based on how the market has bet. That’s why before kickoff all books settle around same spread.

Here are 5 teams that are just one win away from hitting their preseason win total, FBS, after Wk 8. Did you have any of these? 1. Mississippi State o4.5: >99% (4-3) 2. UConn o4.5: 99% (4-3) 3. Cincinnati o5.5: 97% (5-2) 4. Duke o5.5: 96% (5-2) 5. North Carolina o4.5: 96% (4-3) #UConnFootball #CincinnatiOhio #Duke #UNC

Our research finds that Prediction Markets in general are more accurate than sports-books.

Most likely to win out, after Week 8: 1. Liberty (6-1): 54% 2. Indiana (7-1): 49% 3. James Madison (7-1): 42% 4. Ohio State (6-1): 38% 5. Notre Dame (6-1): 38% 6. North Dakota State (6-2): 37% 7. Boise State (6-1): 35% 8. Toledo (6-2): 32% 9. Georgia (6-1): 30% 10. Alabama (6-2): 29%

Top 10 hardest remaining schedules in CFB: 1: USC 2: Minnesota 3: LSU 4: Arkansas 5: Texas A&M 6: Nebraska 7: Northwestern 8: Boston College 9: Mizzou 10: Vanderbilt I don’t think any of these teams run the table. #CFB #CFBPlayoff

Week 9 picks are out for the games with published lines. Early bird gets the worm! always bet the opening line if you can.

If we had an AP vote, this would be our ballot. What do you think? #APpoll #SOR

Yes we picked South Carolina to win by 3. People were calling us crazy. #Gamecocks

Midday update 🏈 Week 8 Our picks in today's finished games: 4-4-1 ATS Unanimous picks (all models agree): 1-1-1 (2-1 if you got the +7.5 Michigan line) ✅ Toledo −3.0 (Toledo 45, Western Michigan 38) ✅ SMU −19.5 (SMU 59, California 20) ✅ Northwestern −16.5 (Northwestern 42, Rutgers 14) ✅ LSU −7.5 (LSU 38, Auburn 17) ❌ Florida Atlantic −7.5 (Florida Atlantic 51, Rice 49) ❌ TCU −9.5 (West Virginia 24, TCU 20) ❌ Texas Tech −10.5 (Cincinnati 37, Texas Tech 24) ❌ Pittsburgh +19.5 (Miami 52, Pittsburgh 23) ➖ Michigan +7.0 (Indiana 13, Michigan 6) What's the most shocking result here?