LordPos3idon

They’re going for the kill shot on Iran and gonna wipe out all of their underground nukes. They’re going full regime change. It’s over. Saudi & Israel are going to renormalize relations next year. Russia aint gonna do shit, they couldn’t even protect Assad. China, bro Xi Jingping is a figure head and they are in a state of transition politically, they aint gonna do shit. This aint that big of deal. Yeah it sucks dudes are dying but this is not no precursor to WWIII. We are about to see one of the biggest peace dividends ever in the world in the next few years. There is narrative and there are facts. You follow the headline & you’ll think the world is heading towards gloom & despondency. When you look at the facts, there is no WWIII. Nukes man are old gen tech. We are pivoting to China b/c they have reverse enginnered some things, let’s just leave it that. We slept on China & now we know. But this just opens up a new Cold War where both sides try to figure out the type of classified tech each country has been working on. But really it’s about the US seeing what ummm, how do I say? “discoveries” China has made. Strategic ambiguity from China & Russia? That’s been their foreign policy for decades. Russia doesn’t support China on Kashmir b/c Russia is cool with India. Russia doesn’t support China on its incursion in the South China sea b/c Russia is cool with Vietnam. China is doing all it can to take Central Asia away from Russia. China has been recruiting Russia nuclear scientists, drone experts. Russia is never going to fight with China. I’m seeing stories of Chinese military cargo planes landing in Iran as if this is some signal that China is going to help Iran in some capacity militarily. LOL. Honestly I be reading twitter and think I’m going fucking crazy. I sound nuts but to me it’s so clear. Russia & China are not friends. They’re not even really allies. China is literally devouring Russia slowly & the Russians absolutely hate it. That’s why they hope to reach some sort of deal with the US on Ukraine, and hoping for reintegration in Europe. Look at how the US coordinates with its allies, across multiple militaries & defense apparatuses. That’s what a relationship of allies looks like. The reason China & US are in a deadlock is b/c Xi is TOAST, COOKED. So US is dealing with a figure head. Once the news comes out that Xi is no longer in charge, the US will reach some sort of détente with China. It’s just blows my mind that people actually think that we are going to see WWIII & see Russia coordinate with China. You’re just looking at headlines and having feelings but no real reasoning or analysis. No contextual history of these relationships. I mean wtf are geopolitical analyst at? What are they analyzing, they just give post mortems after events occur but no real forecasting, no nothing. Iran is fucking DONE, TOAST, COOKED. Like what? What are people reading? What escalation? What do you think they can do? Has anybody seem the Ls they’ve been taking last two years? Has anybody seen the Ls Russia has taken in last 3 years? Yeah and I say “bro” and curse and am super informal. Idc, the facts are the facts. If that dissuades folks from taking me serious then so be it. But I talk in concrete outcomes, & when those things manifest, my word will be undeniable. I aint selling shit but the truth. We are heading for beautiful times, not fucking World War III. This aint no simulation phase. These dudes you think are teaming up are LOSING!!! Except China but we’ll see what happens when Xi gets replaced. And the only reason China is not losing is b/c they have made “breakthroughs” in physics, w/ some “help”. They will focus inward & redo all his dumb ass policies. Their government still remains very fragile. You can model all you want but I’m a fucking Mentat I’m long Humanity not out of some hippie fantasy nonsense but b/c I see how the chessboard is unfolding. Anybody talking about WWIII is out they fucking mind, sorry

Oil bulls I was a dick and I am sorry. I’m from a generation and a hood where trolling is a national past time. Old habits die hard. So I’ll take egg on my face pause. But I got into the oil long $5 higher then when I first started making the short case in August. The long everybody was in was boring, minus the refiners, but I was always focused on crude. I was bear on a catalyst and was saying, oil is going up on falling vol and that is a risk to the long with a catalyst coming. My catalyst hopes died with midterms and so I pivoted because those same underlying conditions for the oil short. will now work in the opposite direction. I am always talking from an IV/OVX stand point, not a price standpoint. What is about to come to oil, was what I was always chasing, a true gamma pop just like what I caught in February to March. The subsequent longs were much harder to execute on, as you are all very well aware of. In April-May bulls were hyped but roundtripped. And then from August to now, unless you were in refiners, you almost round tripped. And so I was wrong at face value, but my take was always more nuanced than what bulls gave me credit for. Still I was overconfident and was wrong for months and could have been less trolly and so I accept the Ls gracefully. I will try to do better moving forward and be less combative. It is unproductive ultimately. It is fun though!!!!!……but unproductive.

After Hartnett said to long hyperscaler debt because equity issuance means that the market is respecting credit market, you get Rick Reider today saying he has got into corpo debt for the first time in a while, citing Hyperscalers specifically. Which means that a beautiful work around hedge to the crowded CDS trade is to actually be the payer on a TRS, constructing a synthetic bond short. CDS can have onerous conditions but setting up a synthetic short can pay straight cash here. I mean you’ll be paying at first but if markets turn then you’ll be getting STRAIGHT CASH. So the demand is there from the credit side, Reider, Howard Marks de facto due to his recent bullish comments, the demand for credit is going to be there and so big boy HFs in trouble from AI cracking have an opportunity to provide these credit funds with a TRS opportunity, as the demand for hyperscaler debt is growing here after selling off so hard. I think this is a clever hedge here for the big boys as they try to minimize pain from legacy AI longs. Idk if I’m out of my element on this one but I love vibe tweeting

This is a sign that attacks are on the horizon. Motjaba’s rhetoric post Midterms has 180ed. His post Midterm statement was saying “these dudes are still trying to press us despite losing the election but we’re not soft, we’re ready for the action”. You then get a top IRGC commander cruising on Hormuz in a speedboat looking like Ned Stark surveying the North, or a lion pissing to mark his territory essentially. Then you get this statement that Motjaba’s Pony Express communication system is well and working with Iran’s Axis of Resistance. Iran has gone from singing diplomatic tunes to getting ready to play the percussion.

The Cuban Remix to these Bukele Songs coming soon

Ya hear that??????? Yeah me either This market is quiet……too quiet Got AAPL put spreads for Jan with $250 target. It’s still vertical with no weakness unlike other Mags but it will go down on correlation risk big time. Like it more than VIX or index puts. I’m riding with this and OXY for what I believe is coming. I was gonna get puts on CRWD but a 100% drop in that is like a 30% drop in AAPL and so I rather ride with AAPL. But CRWD is gonna crack soon I believe, but it’s all one down trade so you just chose the best risk reward and ride with it from here.

I really like AMC, TTWO and BABA here in this environment. I’ve been long these and they expire late Q4 into end of Q1. I think these things are about to breakout. AMC & TTWO are basically Chris Camilo’s social trend investing thesis, Marvel Avengers and Dune will be smashes that will have followed a great year at the box office and GTA VI is finally coming. I think these 3 will be idiosyncratic plays, while most of the market remains heavily correlated. Love US Shale, LNG/Nat-Gas and XLP as negatively correlated assets to the market. XLP is going to keep squeezing higher regardless of the absurd valuations on WMT and COST. Chinese Tech is where legacy AI players need to pivot to I believe. If AI has rich valuations then China is the sweet spot. If we get this mid cycle shakeout like the late 90s, then it’ll set the stage for a global recovery and China and crypto and commodities and materials and CAT will lead the way again. China prob front runs all these most likely. May be premature but China Tech looks like it finally bottomed. Famous last words for this widow trade of sorts.

Rubio is not giving up the chance to be seen as the effing man to his fellow Cubans

Just randomly came across this tweet and saw that Kushner follows him. Interesting read. Don’t have a gripe with anything he says. He is laying out his prediction for how this war plays out to end the year. My only gripe is I’m not sure Pickaxe gets hit here. I feel like something regarding Hormuz is more likely than Pickaxe. We still have too many question regarding how the Ventilation System of Pickaxe works and so a repeat of Fordow is unlikely as the intelligence on Pickaxe is incomplete. A tactical nuke is absurd although I bet you that you get a bunch of fake news on that. The last thing that the US will do here is deploy a tactical nuke and set precedent. The US is not giving Russia that precedence. Idc how much you think that Trump is a mad man, that shit is not happening. Still the coming attacks will be hard for the market to digest because they are assuming performative strikes yet discounting that Iran has to in turn return performative strikes, meaning bombs will be flying everywhere. Ya think bombs flying everywhere is going to give market participants who’ve been living with FUD, a semblance of certainty? The market is going to conflate every bear case in existence and self ruminate themselves into inaction as prices just gap lower.

Oil is going to crack that 2022 high in a flash

Oil never priced in a war premium folks. It was going up on falling Vol. March was a war premium with OVX high. Commodities need call option buying for something to be considered being “priced in”. The war premium is about to get priced aggressively. Ya need to stop looking at charts and look at vol surfaces. XLE is the play. Price is an illusion, IV is what matters. Oil has cheap IV, meaning nobody priced anything in, that is the risk. The market is offsides in its positioning. I was banking on a catalyst to crack this short vol trade but that catalyst is indefinitely postponed and dangerous to front run, Oil is in high vanna regime which means exploding IV is what will proceed it.

Ya look at energy charts when ya need to look at the vol surface, what looks bearish is actually the coiling before a monster gamma move

Bonds are getting bid as tech funds buy bonds to post collateral on TRS AI longs. This is hedging activity . Ya gonna get smoked on bonds I am telling ya man, stagflation is the risk. Yields always spike during Repo trouble, that is a fact

OVX is the laggard if you don’t want to chase VIX. It will take out highs from March. This is the one place that has not seen real option buying at all. The high vanna environment in equities is finally making IV get bid. The high vanna environment in oil has not led to an IV rerating yet. This is where the convexity is at. Bonds are going lower from here, gold is not a stagflation/funding pressure hedge. I may have not made money in the last few weeks but from crypto to options I have taken off positions off and protected capital that would have been incinerated if I remained dogmatic. So I’m still executing on a risk management level but now I looking for big game hunting returns. Me being able to admit my wrongs is liberating, I feel like I am really seeing the field now.

The outcome of the Midterms erased the progress from the diplomatic overtures and performative strikes are coming. This was is about to end temporarily but will go out with a bang, but this war will continue until Trump’s term ends. We just are near our military limit and so we’re gonna put a show on before we agree to peace. Then we’ll retool and be back at again within a year. The market won’t be able to discern this though, so when I say performative that seems like the market will fade it but no, the performative is meant to describe that this conflict will be a long one and that the real strategic purpose for this war won’t be realized with the coming attacks. It’s a show to claim victory and end it. The trilateral Summit is in play but Trump had a scheduled meeting with Xi in March that got postponed into April. So playing the catalyst game here for a TACO is dangerous, in terms of trying to front run it. Motjaba’s statement and this video of the IRGC Commander visiting islands in Hormuz, on the heels of Scott Ritter expecting Trump to do performative attacks on a Hormuz island, to get in and out and plant a flag to claim victory is, too interesting of a coincidence. The destination of the outcome of these performative attacks is clear but the path is nebulous, to martingale before a TACO materializes is a fools errand. Keep that gun powder dry, don’t look at price as a reason to enter anything. This aint the time for that, at least not yet. Prepare for more pain. Mentally prepare for it. The pain trade is repo starting to seize up where it creates stagflation like conditions in the market.

I longed OXY call spreads into Jan, $80 target, looking for an entry into crypto short. This rally in bonds is an illusion. This market is Q4 2018-esq. Repo Stress mimics stagflation like conditions. CAT erased all of the gains from this year, Semi’s are next. That means the April rally is going to get eradicated. I like China Tech, AMC and TTWO as Idiosyncratic longs that have a chance to combat what is coming. I was wrong the entire summer and synthesis tells me that the pain has only started. Repo started showing subtle signs of stress as Scott Skyrm pointed to a couple of days ago. He wrote a book on Repo and his firm Curvature Securities tracks repo closely and makes markets in it. I was wrong but I am not going to be defined by that. There is a storm coming and bonds are rallying as pristine collateral is replacing the lower rated collateral that was priorly being accepted for TRS. This protection in bonds is an illusion. XLE and XLP are the hedges here. VIX is not it, they will rush back in, OVX is lagging and is about to pop. I went from uber bear to uber long in mid March, this is the inverse of that. I don’t feel emotion or pain from my current PnL, those calls were smoked for a while already and today did nothing to me, I’ve been actively managing what I could and even opportunistically raised cash yesterday, leading me into this OXY trade. My clarity comes from looking in the mirror and understanding that I was wrong. I don’t feel fear or anxiety or anything. I really feel calm. I’ve made peace with my errors and am no longer looking back but ahead. Raise cash when you can. I am not buying this dip at all. My confidence is truly internal, I don’t have monetization on for my account and never will and I think that nuance shows that while I may have crazy takes and change opinions fast, I am regardless genuine in my actions and message. The bearishness I had in Feb to Mar was a peak into the future that has today arrived.

Sade can really set the mood Sometimes you just gotta throw on the music and fade out Body mind and soul all need nurturing

For anybody who likes American History and who wants more color on the Iran War, this was an absolutely brilliant read. The war isn’t just about turning Hormuz toxic and making US energy look attractive, this war was also about taking away the City of London’s control over global shipping and insurance. I never paid attention to 1812 War asides from knowing it saw the burning down of the Whitehouse but wow, what a history lesson. It encapsulates so much of the current Game of Thrones going on in the world stage. This was an outstanding read and a new perspective on this Iran War that I wasn’t privy too. I implore ya to check out the article or at least bookmark it for later.

We need to strike to raise the ire of Dems to them hand them Hegseth Bibi needs to strike to raise the ire of other Israeli political factions to then hand them Smotrich and Givr Sacrifice Season