Miguel Duque

My Bitcoin & Crypto Market Synopsis: You're going to want to bookmark this. **Not Investment Advice** **I do NOT Promote Trading Bitcoin** Bitcoin will bounce back—it's only a matter of when. The vast majority—95%+ of the altcoin space—will NEVER recover and most likely will NEVER enter a bull market again. There simply are too many coins with ever-increasing supply, and retail investors, who are the only ones that buy these mid-to-lower quality altcoins, got burned very badly last cycle (Think FTX, Luna, etc) and again during the recent massive altcoin liquidation event. Bitcoin: Nothing has changed for me at this point. I still see 2026 being a bull market for Bitcoin. I think this is a relatively short-lived, 1-to-3-month temporary correction similar to what we saw during the drop to $75,000 near the beginning of the year, and worst case we drop to $75,000, but I do not see a prolonged bear market from here. There are too many tailwinds coming in 2026, and Bitcoin never really had a true bull market and euphoric blowoff top. I personally think this temporary drop is a result of a combination of the perfect storm of sell pressure. OGs (10+ years) took and are still taking massive profits—not to trade the cycle, but to take lifestyle chips off the table because they hit their psychological $100,000-ish target. This administration is more supportive of Bitcoin, and there is no guarantee that the next one will be, so the OG's see it as an opportunity window. Also, many investors who have held for less than 10 years still believe in the 4-year cycle narrative and are selling, thinking they can trade the cycle. Additionally, the 2025 year-long sideways action has turned off a lot of new investors who have been seeing headlines or followed influencers that were calling for $500,000 to a million this cycle. I predicted the pain of this cycle would be more about correcting in time, meaning more time spent sideways and the lack of perceived bullishness or "we are not going up fast enough" would shake people out, and that is what we have seen so far. A lot of the fear right now comes from people having PTSD from previous Bitcoin events like the FTX/Luna collapses, or from the recent mass liquidation events if they were holding altcoins. Many people are scared under the false assumption that Bitcoin could easily drop by 50–80% like it has in past bear markets. However, with the institutional bid and the market cap now comfortably over $1 trillion, Bitcoin is not the same asset. The "it could go to zero" discount that existed in all previous bear markets has been completely removed. Bitcoin is now on the radar of essentially ALL the big money players in the world. Without a major black swan catalyst, the odds of dropping below $70,000 (-45%) are extremely small, and a move to $75,000–$90,000 is much more likely if—and it's a big if—the bull market is truly over, which I still don't think it is. So if we do enter a bear market from here, could you handle a period of time with Bitcoin ranging between $75,000 and $90,000? In my view, we are not going back to $50,000–$70,000 without a significant black swan catalyst—a very low-probability event, just a few percent odds. Either way, the ones who will win in the long term are the long-term-minded, stoic, set-it-and-forget-it-for-a-decade-or-longer, true Bitcoin investors—NOT the "let's get cute with it" traders. The big players are here, and the sophistication of short-term emotional manipulation and the trading game has increased in difficulty by an order of magnitude. Anyone still playing that game had better be a pro. If you got something out of this post, please share it. — Plan C