Market Analysis & Macro Tools at https://xitter.cf/t.co/K1hQjJanaW | Founder of https://xitter.cf/t.co/bYMvysMXrR | https://xitter.cf/t.co/JlkCFHwW8S

Joined March 2016
We're nearing 5 years of hikes/higher rates and inflation remains well above target. We had nearly a decade of ZIRP and inflation stuck to the floor the entire time. Hate MMT all you want, but this is precisely what MMTers have been arguing would happen the entire time.
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Very sad news. Great thinker and great teacher. Perry Mehrling's Money and Banking course remains one of the best courses available online, well worth studying: archive.org/details/academic…
We are deeply saddened to share the news that Perry Mehrling passed away this morning at the age of 67. Perry was the father of the Young Scholars Initiative. He believed profoundly in young scholars, in their ideas, and in the importance of creating a community in which they could learn from one another and find their own voices. Perry, you leave an enormous hole in our midst. Our hearts are aching, and we will miss you dearly. The YSI community will carry your legacy forward. Your ideas, your generosity, and your commitment to generations of young scholars will remain with us. Thank you for everything, Perry.
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Would have been nice to see a chapter explaining how MMTers keep making accurate macro forecasts while Austrians keep striking out.
Here's a peek at the table of contents.
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Market Update is Live! MMT continues to prove its value as a framework. Rate hikes/rising yields are not going break anything other than archaic macro models that the mainstream holds near and dear. Buckle up - the next few months are going to be fun! appliedmmt.com/09-25-2026-ma…
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The same crowd who was telling you that the inverted yield curve will cause a recession is now back to tell you something is about to break because of rates again. Of course they wont tell you how, why, what or when.
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This has been the MMT case for years. The rest of the macro world is finally figuring it out.
The presumption that the Fed raising short-term rates reduces inflation is predicated on the belief that higher rates reduce demand and investment. But what if higher rates don’t reduce demand and investment because the demand for intelligence and energy is unaffected by higher rates because winning the race for super intelligence has a near infinite ROI and the demand for compute will remain incalculable. Why won’t higher rates at this unique moment in history therefore lead to more inflation as interest costs are embedded in everything? And the problem is compounded as the more the Fed raises rates, the more inflation we will have and the more the Fed will need to raise rates further and so on. But what if the old models don’t apply to the current paradigm and the Fed is wrong? I think the Fed might have just made a mistake. Am I right or am I wrong?
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The business cycle is the fiscal/credit cycle. MMT/PK best describe each aspect of it. We've built a macro portfolio strategy on top of our models that identifies which assets win and lose under all macro dynamics. The strategy sidesteps every major drawdown from 1980s to today.
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First post is sliding window OOS, below is true walk forward from 2004 to today. More to show on tomorrow's live stream!
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$1.7T of interest income and rising. No way the Fed can hike out of this. Its reflexive at this point. In a world where profits & income drives investment and assets, each rate hike just pumps the very thing the Fed is looking at to determine if another hike is warranted.
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Past couple of weeks have reminded me of early 2023, all the cost-of-capital/dcf/rate hikes bearish type not realizing hikes into strong fiscal is just going to be bullish for risk. For hikes to be effective they need fragile credit and slowing fiscal, the opposite of today.
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Going Live! - 4:00pm et Rate hikes will not bring inflation down - but they will pump your bags! Lots to cover this week, going to be a good stream! 🔗👇
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Another one of these controversial LNMS interview with none other than @MMTmacrotrader youtu.be/6X5gy_f-9es?si=83MB… We dive deep into: -Why higher interest rates might actually make the economy boom -Why the Fed could be fighting inflation backwards -Why Trump’s dream of zero rates is incompatible with high growth -How Congress could sideline the Fed and set rates itself -Why the “free market sets long-term rates” story might be wrong -How $1.7 trillion in interest payments became stealth stimulus for asset owners Expect some controversial yet thought provoking takes! Spotify: tinyurl.com/42fw4s22 Apple: tinyurl.com/2s3p3epk Fountain: tinyurl.com/5n6c9as5 Rumble: tinyurl.com/yef7arp9
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