delusions of grandeur suit me just fine. #economy, #investing, #cricket & baba to a 9 year old angel

Karachi, Pakistan
Joined August 2014
People of all ages, colour, creed & religion united to speak for justice & freedom #freepalestine
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Jaecoo on Edgware road Will the upcoming budget continue GST concessions on electric/hybrid PHEVs? #NCPL #NPL #SAZEW #PSX #KSE100
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Thx for having me on @KhizarKahloon As always a pleasure to speak with you!
The wait is over. Episode 86 is live. Pakistan's Stock Market, Bull Run or Bear Trap? Mustafa Pasha, CFA, ED & CIO of Lakson Investments, joins for a masterclass on macros, sectors and top stock picks for 2026. @MP4FMPK Watch here: youtu.be/gKewDCKtK4k
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If salaried, speak to HR and provide details of: VPS investment Advance tax on internet/credit card etc Charitable donations (recognised) HR can then adjust tax on salary (but are not required to) and you can avoid refund delays. Section 149(1) + rule 42 of the ITO
If you are a salaried person in Pakistan, your taxes are deducted at many different points during the year, and each deduction is properly recorded in the FBR system. For example: Monthly salary: Your employer deducts withholding tax every month and deposits it directly with the government under section 149. Vehicle token Taxes: These taxes are paid through proper challans and are fully traceable and relevant collecting authority deposits the same into Govt treasury under section 231B/234. Utility bills: Electricity, mobile, telephone, and internet bills include withholding taxes that are automatically deducted and reported/deposited to FBR under different sections of income tax ordinance. Foreign transactions: Advance tax under section 236Y is also deducted at source. And there are no of other withholding tax transactions. Since all these taxes are collected in advance, submitted electronically, and in most cases appear in the filer’s IRIS account with proper CPR numbers, the government already knows exactly how much tax a salaried person has paid. Their own system verifies everything. Because of this, there should be no reason to delay refunds or force taxpayers through long application submission proceduresβ€”especially when salary is the only source of income. The system already holds all the data; it simply needs to match the tax paid with the actual tax due and automatically issue the refund to the bank account provided in the taxpayer’s FBR profileβ€”just like many other countries do. But in Pakistan, instead of automatic refunds, taxpayers still have to file separate refund applications, wait for months or even years, and deal with unnecessary hurdles. With such a complete and data-rich system already in place, what we truly need now is transparency, automation, and an efficient refund mechanism, so taxpayers receive what is rightfully theirs without delays. @FBRSpokesperson @CMShehbaz Let’s start this year by implementing automatic refunds for salaried individuals whose only source of income is salary, and then gradually expand it to everyone.
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There is no doubt the rapid rise in debt is alarming given the narrow revenue base. A fiscal reset is definitely required. However its better calculate interest expense net of sbp profit given that ~13 trillion in gov borrowing is financed at a cost of 1% or less through OMOs.
OUR FISCAL NIGHTMARE FROM MICHAEL BURRY’S LENS Michael Burry warned: The moment your interest payments exceed tax revenue, your country becomes a Ponzi scheme. Welcome to FY26: - Federal interest payments: Rs 8.3–8.8 trillion - Total federal net revenue (after NFC): Rs 7.5–8.0 trillion Let that sink in: We can’t even pay interest without borrowing more. The federal government is now: - Borrowing to pay interest - Borrowing to run the state - Borrowing to survive It is not sustainable.
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Index broke out of the 1M ascending triangle & breached the descending trendline from previous highs. Volumes are tepid though & the follow through day is a Fri during rollover week. Will the IMF tranche & circular debt payment trigger momentum? #KSE100
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FX reserves yet to feel the impact of a higher trade deficit during Jul to Oct & a 500 mn eurobond payment in Sep. Next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether we have inflows to offset higher imports. #SBP #PSX #KSE100
Replying to @MP4FMPK
A trade deficit in itself means nothing. As long as imports are contributing to future productivity & you can fund the gap with mostly non debt dollars. If there are no inflows to offset higher import payments then reserves should feel the impact during Nov. 2/3
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The trade deficit is up 38% YoY (3.5 bn) during 4MFY26 to 12.6 bn. However SBP reserves are stable at 14.5 bn & overall reserves are up 400 mn b/w June & Oct. We also paid off a 500 mn eurobond in Sep. Gov external debt was stable till Aug at 23.4 trillion 1/3
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A trade deficit in itself means nothing. As long as imports are contributing to future productivity & you can fund the gap with mostly non debt dollars. If there are no inflows to offset higher import payments then reserves should feel the impact during Nov. 2/3
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Otherwise the SBP should enlighten us as to the nature of the inflows that are keeping reserves stable despite higher imports & continuing debt repayments. Is this the calm before the storm or are we finally building a ship that can sail through one? 3/3
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The PSX may not equal the economy but it is reflective of the outlook This is y when you run regressions of the index vs macro variables like FX reserves, interest rates, sovereign ratings, u will find a significant degree of correlation.
(1/n) πŸ‡΅πŸ‡° Why PSX β‰  Pakistan’s Real Economy 1️⃣ Major Companies Are Unlisted Largest Refinery (PARCO) β†’ Joint venture of Pak-Arab Govt. & ADNOC, not listed. Largest Telecom (Jazz/PMCL) β†’ Owned by VEON (Netherlands), not listed. Largest Auto (Pak Suzuki) β†’ Delisted in 2024, now fully owned by Suzuki Motor Corp Japan. Largest FMCG (P&G Pakistan) β†’ Winding down / delisting process. Philip Morris (Pakistan) β†’ Also delisting soon. ➑️ These sectors drive real GDP growth, employment, and consumption β€” yet are invisible in PSX indices.
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β€œThese projects will be a gift from the Federal Government to the people of Sindh.” How can something paid for by tax payer money be a gift from the gov to its citizens? We need to stop acting like public service provided by the gov is charity rather than an obligation.
I am deeply saddened to see the current state of Karachi’s infrastructure, which does not reflect the stature of our country’s economic hub. During my visit, I found the ongoing work on the Lyari Expressway unsatisfactory, and therefore, I have suspended Member South with immediate effect. This is my promise to the people of Karachi that the Lyari Expressway will be transformed into a model infrastructure. I am pleased to announce that the development work on the M-6 Motorway (Sukkur to Hyderabad) and the M-10 Motorway (Hyderabad to Karachi Port) will commence from this financial year. These projects will be a gift from the Federal Government to the people of Sindh. I hope that the people of Karachi will soon have a clean city with the excellent infrastructure they truly deserve. With the completion of these motorways, the Karachi Port will be directly connected with the entire country, greatly improving trade, logistics, and connectivity. The Federal Government remains fully committed to modernizing infrastructure across Sindh and ensuring that every project meets the highest standards of transparency, quality, and efficiency for the benefit of the people.
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Do interest rates cuts lead to a PKR collapse? 🧡 Halloween is days away yet analysts are more spooked by the eerie similarities to the past where after a prolonged period of serenity the PKR goes on a bloody rampage that would make Jason/Michael/Freddy blush with pride 1/12
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Monetary policy therefore becomes a lagging indicator of our economic outlook and why the causal relationship b/w rates and currency does not hold. This holds true even when looking past a 1 year horizon: 11/12
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Annualised PKR depreciation 2/3 years after a: Rate cut: 4.8%/7.8% Rate hike: 10.6%/9.9% Everyone likes to believe we matter, in the PKR's case the SBP may not. 12/12
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