trying to figure out what makes the macroeconomy tick, from the bottom up. Economics Professor at PUC-Rio
Rio de Janeiro
Joined August 2015
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Inflation and output co-move across countries. Is that common shocks or propagation through trade? In new paper, we find the latter to be very important! We develop and estimate a framework with nominal rigidities + multilateral trade. (1/n) app.box.com/s/28x28o8uzrofjl…
Felipe Schwartzman retweeted
Yesterday, while celebrating the prize, I started thinking of the origins of the NK model again. One paper that came to mind was @mileskimball beautiful Neomonetarist model. What I did not know was that Mike wrote a comment on the paper, which is really amazing!
Felipe Schwartzman retweeted
1/ Together with Eaton–Kortum (2002) and Melitz (2003), I put Autor, Dorn & Hanson (2013) among the most influential trade papers of the past three decades. Precisely because of that influence, it has been intensely scrutinized.
Starting this month, I'm on leave from the @RichFedResearch Fed and joining @PUCRioEconomia. I'm returning to Rio to join a storied department. Looking forward to connecting my old and new worlds, and to seeing US friends and colleagues at conferences — or in Rio!
Felipe Schwartzman retweeted
Our paper with @clem_imbert is out in @ecmaEditors 🎉🎉🎉
Couldn't be happier to see this one in print!
Felipe Schwartzman retweeted
1. Macro-metrics, seriously (VARs, Bayesian, etc.)
2. Fiscal theory
3. Rational inattention
Plus if you did macro in the last ~30 years you probably used gensys, knowingly or not.
That's like 3+ Nobels.
RIP Chris Sims, one of the greatest ever and also kindest and most vertical
Felipe Schwartzman retweeted
1/Chris Sims is easily one of the most influential macroeconomists (& perhaps most influential empirical macroeconomist) of the last 50 years; he fundamentally changed thinking about monetary policy, metrics,& causality (VARs, time series models). Thread on his greatest hits🧵👇
Felipe Schwartzman retweeted
R.I.P. Christopher Sims (21 Oct. 1942 - 14 March 2026)
- a giant in macroeconomics and one of the finest human beings I have ever met -
If you are in Philly for the #ASSA2026 come this Monday to the session organized by the ISIR, organized by Sergio Salgado and Guangbin Hong!
Happy to also have a paper in this session, that will owe not little to precious work done by Mahdi.
I will also be in the audience. Looking forward to connect with friends who are coming for the ASSA!
Dear friends and colleagues,
I will be presenting at #ASSA2026 on January 3.
I would be honored if you could attend.
DM or email me if you'd like to chat.
Title: Solving Models of Economic Dynamics with Ridgeless Kernel Regressions
Session: aeaweb.org/conference/2026/p…
Felipe Schwartzman retweeted
A great summary of the missing intercept problem. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention my work with @MacroInPieces and Naoya Nagasaka where we show how to leverage cross sectional results ( which are susceptible to the missing intercept
"The China Shock destroyed millions of American manufacturing jobs."
At least that's a claim.
But prices connect everyone. When you shock one part of the market, the "control" group moves.
Today we have 3,000 words on "The Missing Intercept" problem.
economicforces.xyz/p/the-inv…
Felipe Schwartzman retweeted
Richmond Fed senior economist @MacroInPieces, and @cmatthes_econ & Naoya Nagasaka at @IndianaUniv present a statistical approach to addressing the "missing intercept" problem, which often results from using cross-sectional data for macroeconomic research: bit.ly/4oOqG6b.
Our new paper on Estimating the Missing Intercept is out! @cmatthes_econ
How can we leverage existing results that use cross-sectional identification to estimate aggregate effects?
Felipe Schwartzman (@MacroInPieces), Naoya Nagasaka, and I address this problem in our new paper “Estimating the Missing Intercept”.
cm1518.github.io/files/MNS.p…
Felipe Schwartzman retweeted
How can we leverage existing results that use cross-sectional identification to estimate aggregate effects?
Felipe Schwartzman (@MacroInPieces), Naoya Nagasaka, and I address this problem in our new paper “Estimating the Missing Intercept”.
cm1518.github.io/files/MNS.p…
Felipe Schwartzman retweeted
Viewing the rise in #inflation through a single perspective may mean missing part of the picture. bit.ly/4mp0Nc3
Felipe Schwartzman retweeted
Nobu speaking at the dinner of the conference in honor of his 70th birthday (in the background a picture of his wedding, where he's between Keiko and Uzawa). A great event marked by a glorious celebratory speech by John Moore which culminated in a ehm... captivating bagpipe performance
If you are in SF for the ASSA meetings, Come tomorrow at 10:15 PST for the ISIR session in heterogeneity and aggregate dynamics, organized by Andres Blanco and Sergio Salgado!
Happy to see this coming out in print!
Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "The Consumption Origins of Business Cycles: Lessons from Sectoral Dynamics" by Christian Matthes and Felipe Schwartzman. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.12…
Felipe Schwartzman retweeted
Thanks to all the speakers - it was a lot of fun to organize the conference with @MacroInPieces .
To close #EconCOREWeek, the Richmond Fed invited speakers from around the country to present at the Macro Identification with Micro Data Conference. bit.ly/41yRIph
To study this question, we deploy a tractable sovereign default model with capital. In the model, countries are more likely to default when debt/GDP is expected to be higher. Disasters destroy capital, and hence, GDP. (...)