不纠结主义，只讨论事实。
China & Nigeria
Joined February 2012
- Tweets6.6K
- Following1.3K
- Followers1.6K
- Likes7K
MailMan retweeted
Republicans are going to have a terrible night, and the simple reason why is that Trump has put up perhaps the worst *performance* this term of any president in a century or more.
Remember that he entered with an actual mandate: the House and Senate, a popular vote victory and a swing-state sweep, and 6-3 Supreme Court. Democrats were afraid enough to vote for mild but real immigration restrictionist legislation in the Laken Riley Act. Everyone wondered how far the "Vibe Shift" would go.
Trump managed to turn that into essentially zero durable wins whatsoever. He personally *hates* the very idea of legislation, the notion that he would have to spend time going back and forth with Congress, learning details and making compromises. So he simply didn't do it! He didn't make a compelling case for abolishing the filibuster. He didn't try communicating clearly to the public in support of popular bills to get to 60 votes. He just decided not to do it at all.
So they passed an unpopular tax cut, some funding for ICE, and a sop to the crypto industry, and that was basically it. Least productive Congress in decades, due to the tastes of one man.
Trump adopted one of the worst macro policies we've ever had: high deficits, high tariffs, and attacks on central bank independence. We managed to pay higher interest rates while still having high trade deficits AND weakening the dollar. Just a total failure.
On immigration, perhaps THE signature issue, Trump essentially min-maxxed effectiveness and backlash. Instead of trying to leverage the political moment for new laws and a self-deportation agenda (that is, walling off the economy to remove the benefit of irregular presence in the US), he opted for a maximally aggressive approach. The administration spent attention, funds, legal manpower on stunts like deporting random people to Salvadoran prisons with essentially no due process. ICE and Border Patrol were encouraged to be aggressive and confrontational, which helped contribute to the shooting deaths of American protestors. It turns out, that's extremely unpopular!
What about the approach of going after employers? The obvious vector? Trump hated that idea! He repeatedly has said he doesn't want to target businesses (especially farms) that use large amounts of illegal labor. This is just an incomprehensible position. Instead of charging a few dozen businessmen and removing the incentive for millions of illegal workers to be here, you arrest people off the street one by one at the cost of thousands of dollars in manpower per each, while their crying wives and kids post TikToks about it.
Upshot on immigration: electoral strength turned into a crippling electoral weakness in exchange for deporting maybe 6% of the illegally present population.
The tariffs were a total shitshow. Embarrassing rollout, no underlying theory of action at all. No targeted focus on key industries. Our country tariffed products we can't grow. We tariffed *inputs* of our own valuable exports. The schemes and amounts changed constantly, sending the stock market reeling and presenting scenes of chaos to the world.
Trump's messaging throughout has been generationally bad. While facing nearly 2:1 unpopularity, he spends his days posting AI slop, saying he'll rename New Mexico or invade allies, among other bizarre remarks. He brags about a ballroom and a pool repainting while gas hits records. At no point has he ever attempted any kind of message discipline.
Then there are the deeply unpopular attacks on rule of law, his "game-recognize-game" pardons for all manner of scammers and criminals, the crypto schemes that he and his family engage in, the evilly conceived and embarrassingly executed legal attacks on Comey, Jerome Powell, and others. With his monthslong stand on NOT releasing the Epstein files, he became maybe the first president ever to stake out a 99-1 issue on the 1% side.
That's not even getting into Iran, DOGE, his candidate recruitment choices, or countless other things. Simply put: Trump has managed to royally screw up virtually every single facet of his presidency. It's been undeniable, voters have noticed, and there's really no escape from it. This is what the GOP base chose in early 2024, and this is the world they're living with now. Where they handed the reins of history to a fat, vain, washed-up old man and let him drive.
MailMan retweeted
Témoignage anonyme – Chine : le désenchantement d’un jeune diplômé
Je suis un jeune diplômé chinois titulaire d’un master. Cela fait plus de deux ans que j’ai terminé mes études, mais je n’ai toujours pas trouvé de travail. La situation de l’emploi en Chine est extrêmement difficile.
J’ai étudié l’éducation idéologique et politique du Parti communiste chinois. Autrefois, je croyais profondément à son discours et j’admirais Mao Zedong. Mais en étudiant davantage l’histoire du Parti et ses théories, j’ai progressivement découvert des contradictions qui ont profondément changé ma vision des choses. J’ai refusé de rejoindre le Parti communiste, ce qui m’a fermé certaines portes professionnelles.
J’ai également découvert, à travers des personnes travaillant dans l’administration, des pratiques particulièrement inquiétantes : des arrestations avant même que les preuves soient réunies, des interrogatoires prolongés et des pressions exercées sur les personnes accusées.
Mais l’histoire qui me bouleverse le plus est celle de mon grand-père.
En 1948, à seulement 18 ans, il avait rejoint l’armée communiste et participé à de nombreuses batailles. Il avait été grièvement blessé et avait perdu l’usage d’un œil. Pourtant, en 1953, il est retourné dans son village et a retrouvé une vie de paysan pauvre.
Pour nourrir ses enfants, il a même dû vendre ses quatre médailles militaires contre un petit sac de farine. Malgré ses blessures et son âge avancé, il était encore obligé de vendre des glaces à vélo pour survivre.
Il est finalement mort d’une tumeur à l’œil blessé pendant la guerre. Sa famille n’avait pas les moyens de lui offrir les soins nécessaires dans un grand hôpital.
Quelques années avant sa mort, il avait enfin obtenu une pension de 2 000 yuans tous les trois mois. Il avait sacrifié sa jeunesse pour un système qui ne lui avait jamais véritablement rendu ce qu’il avait donné.
Aujourd’hui, malgré mes diplômes, je suis au chômage. Mon grand-père avait placé beaucoup d’espoir en moi, mais je ne sais même pas comment construire mon avenir.
Quand je pense à lui, je pleure. Je pleure pour les sacrifices qu’il a consentis, pour la vie qu’il a subie et pour mon propre destin.
Je vais commencer à partager les messages et les témoignages que je reçois de personnes vivant en Chine 🇨🇳, tout en préservant bien évidemment leur anonymat.
Si vous avez des témoignages, des documents ou des informations que vous ne pouvez pas publier par peur des représailles, vous pouvez me les envoyer en privé. Je leur donnerai une visibilité, sans révéler votre identité.
Il est temps que le monde découvre aussi une autre réalité de la Chine, au-delà de l’image de puissance et de prospérité qu’on nous présente. Le monde mérite de savoir ce que vivent réellement les citoyens chinois
@zhoujunhong2024
MailMan retweeted
THE MOST INCOMPETENT WAR IN HISTORY: SARAH PAINE ON TRUMP’S IRAN DISASTER
Dr. Sarah Paine, a leading historian of great-power conflict and strategy, delivers a blunt verdict on the Iran war. She calls it one of the most incompetent wars in human history. The decision ignored basic principles of assessment, put maximum costs on America itself, and left permanent damage to the country’s power and alliances. This is not hindsight—it is the predictable result of hubris meeting reality.
THE CORE VERDICT
➡️ “The Iran war is probably one of the most incompetent wars in human history.”
➡️ A competent war puts the costs on the enemy and minimizes them for yourself.
➡️ This one did the opposite.
THE COST CATASTROPHE
➡️ It trashed the US economy.
➡️ It blew the US alliance system.
➡️ Iran is hurting, but the collateral damage is taking down the world’s economy.
➡️ That transforms the United States from a partner into an annoyance—and for many, a primary adversary—because it is threatening their economies.
➡️ “That’s breathtakingly incompetent.”
THE STRATEGIC BLIND SPOT
➡️ Any serious assessment looks at the enemy’s strengths and your own weaknesses, plus everyone else who might intervene.
➡️ That was absent.
➡️ The first thing Iran would do is shut Hormuz. Narrow seas close in wartime. Ukraine already showed this with the Black Sea.
➡️ Shore artillery, mines, and other tools stop traffic. There is no mystery here.
➡️ The big naval base in Bahrain becomes unreachable. The fallback is Diego Garcia, 2,500 miles away in the middle of nowhere. “That would be a mess.”
THE HUBRIS THAT MADE IT POSSIBLE
➡️ The people making the calls are historically unqualified for the job. That makes them profoundly dangerous.
➡️ Type A hubris assumes all decisions that matter happen in the United States.
➡️ Type B hubris assumes being good at one thing makes you good at everything.
➡️ Half-court tennis: you only watch your own side and never study the other team.
➡️ The Iranians understand Americans far better than Americans understand them.
THE UNFEASIBLE OBJECTIVE
➡️ Trying to “solve” Iran with 90 million people was never realistic.
➡️ Nazi Germany had roughly 80 million and required an occupation force of about 1.5 million just to hold it after the war—before counting everyone else.
➡️ The goal was unattainable. Pursuing it guarantees overextension and a bad ending.
➡️ The lesson the world takes is simple: get a nuke. The war incentivized proliferation.
➡️ This was a pivotal error. The choices that existed before are gone and will not return. “We will never be the trusted partner ever again. It’s done.”
THE BOTTOM LINE
The Iran war did not merely fail. It maximized American costs, destroyed trust with allies, and handed every rival a clearer reason to treat the United States as a threat to their own prosperity. Competence would have contained the problem at affordable cost. Hubris chose the opposite.
This is what permanent strategic damage looks like.
#IranWar #SarahPaine #StrategicIncompetence #HormuzDisaster #USHubris #AllianceCollapse #CatastrophicMistake
HT: YouTube The Diary Of A CEO
“我明明什么都没做，却不得不跟着承受这份难堪”
外国人你们一辈子也不会懂，当中国人最痛苦的一点是：每当这个傻逼中国政府又带着它的僵尸军团打着中国的旗号在世界面前发疯时，我明明什么都没做，却不得不跟着承受这份难堪。
在一个不正常的国家里坚持做正常人就是一种罪，清醒者举着烛火跋涉在狂热者的海啸里只有溺亡的份儿。
我举个例子，现在是1938年，地点是纳粹德国，希特勒已经开始对内压制言论并迫害犹太人，你是一个正常德国人，你叫Schneider，你说左派的报纸不应该被纳粹查封，一个正常的民族不应该迫害另一个民族，希特勒就是一个该死的纳粹独裁者，你说完周围所有德国人都说你是德国的叛徒，德国政府马上要派Gestapo那样的秘密警察把你抓走。
Schneider的处境就是现在正常中国人的处境。
MailMan retweeted
外国人你们一辈子也不会懂，当中国人最痛苦的一点是：每当这个傻逼中国政府又带着它的僵尸军团打着中国的旗号在世界面前发疯时，我明明什么都没做，却不得不跟着承受这份难堪。
在一个不正常的国家里坚持做正常人就是一种罪，清醒者举着烛火跋涉在狂热者的海啸里只有溺亡的份儿。
我举个例子，现在是1938年，地点是纳粹德国，希特勒已经开始对内压制言论并迫害犹太人，你是一个正常德国人，你叫Schneider，你说左派的报纸不应该被纳粹查封，一个正常的民族不应该迫害另一个民族，希特勒就是一个该死的纳粹独裁者，你说完周围所有德国人都说你是德国的叛徒，德国政府马上要派Gestapo那样的秘密警察把你抓走。
Schneider的处境就是现在正常中国人的处境。
MailMan retweeted
I am confident in saying this, there is not a single leader of any nation that actually respects Trump. A few may fear the power of the US, but that isn't respect. Others, like Netanyahu & Putin, play him like a fiddle, that isn't respect. America's allies are disgusted by his antics, that isn't respect. All, see his stupidity, corruption & willful ignorance, perfectly called out by Mark Carney. There is no respect, don't fool yourselves MAGA, the world is shaking its head, or laughing at you & your worthless buffoon of a leader.
MailMan retweeted
Now would be a good time to remind everyone of these Trump facts, because apparently some people still need the refresher.
Please meet the President of the United States:
Flew on Epstein’s plane at least seven times. Just friends, I guess.
Pleaded the Fifth more than 400 times in a single deposition. Nothing says “innocent” like refusing to answer a single question about your own business.
34 felony convictions. A record most people would call disqualifying. And 91 criminal charges.
Accused of sexual misconduct or assault by at least 26 women. But sure, tell me again how he’s a great guy.
6 corporate bankruptcies. The self proclaimed greatest businessman alive somehow keeps running out of money.
5 draft deferments. Funny how the toughest guy in the room never actually showed up for duty.
4 criminal indictments. Not two. Not three. Four.
2 impeachments. A club of exactly one president.
2 of his own companies convicted of criminal tax fraud. Convicted. Not accused. Convicted.
1 fake university shut down. 1 fake charity shut down.
Even his charity was a grift.
Paid 25 million dollars to settle the Trump University fraud lawsuit because scamming people who believed in you costs money eventually.
Ordered to pay 5 million dollars in the first E Jean Carroll sexual abuse verdict, then hit with 83.3 million more in the second.
A jury said it twice so nobody could pretend it was a fluke.
Ordered to pay 2 million dollars for looting his own so called charity.
Stealing from a charity with his own name on it.
Found liable for business fraud and originally slapped with a penalty topping 450 million dollars, later thrown out on appeal while the fraud finding itself stuck to him anyway.
First president in modern history to increase the deficit every single year of a full term. Fiscal responsibility, apparently, was always just a talking point.
Kept the debt to GDP ratio above 100 percent for his entire first term.
Presided over the largest single day point drop in Dow Jones history at the time. So much for the guy who claimed to be a genius with money.
Set the record for the longest government shutdown in US history in his first term at 35 days, then couldn’t resist beating his own miserable record in his second term with a 43 day shutdown, followed by yet another shutdown just months later. Encore nobody asked for.
Added roughly 2.25 trillion dollars to the national debt in his first year back in office alone, pushing the debt past 39 trillion dollars.
Somebody remind me who the party of fiscal discipline is again.
Pushed through the largest defense budget increase since World War Two while the debt kept climbing anyway.
Purged more than 300,000 federal employees in his first year back.
Efficient, if your goal is chaos.
Pardoned nearly 1,600 January 6 Capitol rioters.
At least 40 of those pardoned rioters have already been rearrested, charged, or sentenced for new crimes since walking free. Shocking absolutely nobody.
His family’s crypto ventures, including a meme coin and World Liberty Financial, pulled in more than 1.4 billion dollars in disclosed earnings while he sat in the Oval Office.
Draining the swamp was apparently code for filling his own pockets.
Sent the National Guard into American cities at a cost of nearly 500 million taxpayer dollars in 2025 alone.
His own tariffs are projected to cost the average American household more than 2,500 dollars this year.
You’re paying for this. Not China. You.
No more foreign wars. Peace deal with Russia and Ukraine on Day One.
None of this is a conspiracy theory, a rumor, or something you saw in a group chat.
It is the actual, documented record, sitting in plain sight for anyone willing to look.
So the next time someone tells you to relax and give him a chance, ask them how many more indictments, judgments, and shutdown records he needs to rack up before that chance runs out.
Credit: Charles Curtis Rone
MailMan retweeted
The final pieces of the puzzle are falling into place, revealing an increasingly disturbing picture of what is happening behind the scenes in Washington.
If you are still wondering where Donald Trump's hysterical attacks on Kyiv come from, why he keeps making absurd claims about "the rain that saved Ukraine," and why he responds so aggressively to journalists who challenge him, consider the analysis of someone who understands the inner workings of the White House.
Dr. Fiona Hill, a former senior White House national security official and one of America's leading experts on Russia, has offered a deeply troubling interpretation of Trump's behavior.
Trump wants Zelenskyy to capitulate.
Why? Because, according to this interpretation, the entire situation comes down to something painfully simple: Trump's wounded ego.
This is a man who promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. He imagined himself receiving the Nobel Peace Prize and being celebrated as one of the greatest peacemakers in history. He envisioned a spectacular diplomatic triumph that would secure his place in the history books.
Instead, his grand promises have collided with reality.
Months have passed, the magical peace agreement has failed to materialize, and the Kremlin dictator continues to reject proposals that do not satisfy his demands. Putin has repeatedly demonstrated that he has little interest in helping Trump achieve his political ambitions.
So who should Trump blame for this humiliating failure?
Himself? Absolutely not. In Trump's political universe, admitting a mistake is practically unthinkable.
Putin? Apparently not. Trump continues to treat the Kremlin dictator as a powerful leader worthy of respect, despite Russia's continuing destruction of Ukrainian cities and the deaths of innocent civilians.
That leaves one convenient target: Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Trump is furious because the Ukrainian president refuses to surrender, refuses to kneel before Moscow, and refuses to sign an agreement that would sacrifice his country's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
He is furious because an entire nation refuses to capitulate to an aggressor merely so the 47th president of the United States can stand before the cameras and declare himself the man who ended the war.
And now, as Hill's analysis suggests, the pressure is increasingly being directed not at Moscow, which launched the invasion, but at Kyiv, which is fighting for its survival.
The apparent calculation is that Washington, potentially supported by war-weary European governments, can pressure Ukraine into accepting terms that would allow Trump to claim a diplomatic victory, regardless of the long-term consequences for Ukrainian security.
But the price of this political spectacle is not measured in television ratings, headlines, or Nobel Prize nominations.
It is measured in the blood of Ukrainian soldiers defending their country in freezing trenches. It is measured in the lives of civilians killed by Russian missiles and drones, in destroyed homes, shattered families, kidnapped children, and entire cities reduced to ruins.
Ukraine is fighting an aggressor determined to destroy its independence. At the same time, Ukrainians must confront the possibility that some of those who call themselves allies may place their own political ambitions above Ukraine's survival.
There is something profoundly disturbing about demanding concessions from the country being invaded while treating the invading dictator as an indispensable partner in negotiations.
Ukraine did not start this war.Ukraine did not invade Russia.Ukraine is not responsible for Putin's imperial ambitions or Trump's unfulfilled political promises.
And Ukrainians should not be expected to pay for anyone's wounded pride with their freedom,their territory,or their lives.
A peace agreement that rewards aggression and leaves Ukraine defenseless is not a historic diplomatic victory. It risks becoming an invitation to the next war.
MailMan retweeted
【因讽刺习近平是“第一傻X”，台湾相声演员黄逸豪先后被泼粪及买凶撞伤】台湾相声演员黄逸豪因一段讽刺习近平的相声短视频，先后遭遇泼粪和买凶制造假车祸。新北地检署近日已起诉5名涉案嫌犯，案件被认定为境外人士出资的跨境镇压。据台湾镜周刊报道，黄逸豪去年12月发布相声短视频，以“独辱习不如众辱习”为题讽刺习近平。今年5月他加场演出时，有人受雇前往场地泼粪。9月11日下午，他在新北市永和区住处附近骑机车停车时，被一辆汽车从后方猛撞。监视器画面显示，肇事司机直到听见他的惨叫才停车，另有一名共犯一直守在巷口监视，并不时发信息向同伙回报。
调查显示，出资者是一名代号“K”的中国籍人士。事发后，嫌犯又以协助处理理赔为由，骗取黄逸豪载有病历和身份资料的诊断证明书，翻拍后层层转交给K，用来领取酬劳。K因黄逸豪只是骨盆受伤，未达到预定的“断手断脚”，还扣减了尾款。
黄逸豪今天公开受访，称被撞倒后的第一反应是“该不会是老共来找我了吧”。肇事者下车后姿态放得很低，不断道歉，还热情邀请他坐进车内休息。他无法确认对方来路，坚决拒绝。他还说，对方花了新台币45万元，而他那场演出的总票房只有13万元。
以“断手断脚”为目标，只为惩罚一段讽刺领导人的相声，这早已超出言论分歧的范畴。跨境镇压正从网络围攻和骚扰，发展为直接的人身伤害，而且发生在台湾的街头。言论自由不应以身体安全为代价，对中共这种肆无忌惮的暴力跨境镇压，各国政府和社会都不应视而不见。
房地产直接崩着走，说明整个地产行业根本没见底，还在继续塌方式下滑。上下游的全被拖死。
实体经济投资断崖， 固定资产投资直接转负，大家手里都没钱、对未来全无信心，没人愿意掏钱建厂搞新项目，资金在空转或者加速撤离。
老百姓彻底捂紧钱包， 老百姓没钱、不敢花、对收入悲观，消费市场死气沉沉
多想想，其实目的就是降低终端工人工资，他们要的只是社保钱，工人工资你以为他们真的在乎吗
中国社保困局：加大征收力度只会制造更大的困局
近日，中国政府出台新规增加了社保的征收力度，《全国税务行政处罚裁量基准（2026年版）》首次将社保费纳入全国统一的税务行政处罚裁量体系，从11月1日起实施，引发全社会的广泛关注。
网友透露，在全额社保要求以及新的处罚措施下，企业面临用工成本上升，如果严格执行最终可能面临倒闭，最终为了生存企业只能通过各种方式把社保的成本转嫁给员工，导致员工降薪，而员工在当下就业艰难的环境下，则缺乏议价权，员工收入降低，压低消费，可能使通缩加剧，从而进一步恶化企业经营和就业市场，经济状况更加糟糕。
最终以税收征管标准执行的社保，将陷入越是加大征收力度，越无力维持的困局。
MailMan retweeted
Russian Mi-8 military helicopter breached Polish airspace today, remaining inside for 42 seconds.
Just a reminder: back in 2015, when Turkey shot down Russian Su-24, the jet had been in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds.
Russians acted very offended, sanctioned Turkish tomatoes of all things, but the most important thing is that they backed off!
That is the only right way to handle Russian incursions into your country's airspace!
❗️ Informujemy, że 23 września br. o godz. 11.08, na północ od miejscowości Braniewo, doszło do krótkotrwałego naruszenia przestrzeni powietrznej Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej przez śmigłowiec Mi-8 Sił Zbrojnych Federacji Rosyjskiej.
Śmigłowiec wykonywał lot z Obwodu Królewieckiego. Naruszył polską przestrzeń powietrzną na maksymalną głębokość ok. 300 m i przebywał w niej przez 42 sekundy.
Lot maszyny był obserwowany przez systemy radiolokacyjne Sił Zbrojnych RP. Poderwane zostały samoloty myśliwskie, a naziemne siły i środki pozostawały w stanie gotowości.
Charakter incydentu wskazuje na to, że Rosja po raz kolejny testuje gotowość naszej obrony powietrznej.
Obsady systemów obrony powietrznej RP prowadzą całodobową obserwację, pozostając w ciągłej gotowości do zapewnienia bezpieczeństwa polskiej przestrzeni powietrznej.
#PołączeniDlaBezpieczeństwa 🤝 #JointForSecurity
MailMan retweeted
在推特上总有那么几位自我感觉良好的“老戏骨”，顶着一副洞察世事的通透面具，操着一口云淡风轻的腔调，满世界扮演着中立理客中的裁判。比如这位王局，一遇到触及灵魂的社会烂疮，就立马切换到“精算师”模式，玩起了一场堪称教科书级别的偷换概念魔术。
他最拿手的把戏，便是将公众对公义与真相的追问，无缝置换成对质疑者动机的诛心。当人们拍案痛斥制度性的荒诞时，他非但不去戳那脓包，反而把眼光死死钉在受害者的措辞上，阴阳怪气地暗示：你看，这人言辞这么激烈，不是带着偏见就是想借机发泄。逻辑的核心就这样被他偷梁换柱成“由于你态度不好，所以你的诉求无效”。这不就是典型的倒果为因、指鹿为马？
更绝的是，他总能把血淋淋的结构性不公，轻飘飘地洗白为需要自我修养的个人琐事。面对铁证如山的悲剧，他不问黑白，先问立场；不谈对错，先猜居心。仿佛这世间所有的荒谬，只要经过他那一套高高在上的话术一过滤，就全成了民众不够包容、不够理性的咎由自取。
这种聪明劲儿，如果用来伸张正义倒也罢了，偏偏被拿来当成了权力的软木塞。他就像那个在台下精于察言观色的幕僚，拿着解构真相当成谋生手段，把是非曲直揉捏成一团模糊的温吞水。当逻辑成了流量的筹码，当真理被裹挟进精致的诡辩，我们看到的不仅是一个大外宣网红的拙劣演技，更是一个时代在面对沉重现实时，那种下意识的精致表演和沉沦。
