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Storm Austen is developing rapidly to the southwest of the UK with a marked wrap around cloud head beginning to emerge.
Relatively small but potentially disruptive 馃挩
STORM BOELO 鈿狅笍
The Met Office has named the second storm of this season. Storm Boelo will bring strong winds across northern England, Scotland & Northern Ireland this weekend.
#StormBoelo
STORM AUSTEN 鈿狅笍
The Met Office has expanded the yellow wind warning for Storm Austen that is expected to bring impacts through tomorrow.
All the details below 馃憞馃徎
Latest modelling may have weakened Storm Austen slightly with peak gusts now more likely to be 60-70mph rather than 80mph, but that鈥檚 still strong enough to cause issues.
Winds initially impacting the southwest will transfer east along the south coast through late Friday morning and into the afternoon.
The precise track of Storm Austen continues to shift slightly between runs but broadly speaking, Cornwall, coasts of Devon & along the south coast are likely to see a spell of disruptive winds through Friday.
Saturday night into Sunday morning will feature a second deep low pressure system, this time to the north of Scotland.
Gusts of 60-70mph possible for northwest Scottish coasts, locally up to 80mph, small possibility of a jet streak.
Here's a closer look at the wind gusts associated with #StormAusten through Friday morning.
Details are still subject to change as modelling tries to resolve the precise track / intensity.
It鈥檚 been a little while since we鈥檝e had a look at the longer term;
We鈥檝e had westerly anomalies working poleward, this is associated with the abrupt fall in AAM tendency late September & into early October, now this has finally worked It鈥檚 way into the mid-high latitudes it鈥檚 no surprise that we鈥檙e now looking at a stormy week or so, but we also have negative anomalies working poleward to follow so we鈥檙e not looking at a prolonged or typical zonal spell, it鈥檚 entirely plausible that we鈥檒l see high pressure amplify towards the end of next week bringing about something more settled / shifting the jet stream track north once again.
AAM tendency is rising again and this being driven by a combination of +MT and rising FT.
Interestingly there is now some movement from the MJO with signs of emergence into the east Indian Ocean, looking ultra ahead the CFS MJO forecasts are showing a coherent MJO signal through the Pacific through November which given the high AAM background state this would prime the ground for amplification & potential colder weather late into November / early December, somewhat against the idea of a very mild & stormy late autumn / early winter.
Given continued & further expected disruptions to the developing stratospheric vortex, the start to winter may not be as clear cut as previously expected, albeit worth noting vortex developments through November will be far more important than the current state of play.
Interesting developments.
Well.. we need the rain.
The areas in severe drought could see 40-50mm over the next few days, whilst it won鈥檛 help a whole lot, it鈥檚 at least a start at clawing back some of the rainfall deficite.
鈿狅笍
A yellow rain warning has been issued for southern & eastern parts of Scotland for Friday.
20-40mm expected widely with 60-80mm possible more locally.
鈿狅笍
The Met Office have issued an AMBER wind warning for parts of Cornwall for Friday as Storm Austen is expected to bring a spell of very windy weather.
60-70mph, locally 80mph gusts possible.
Latest modelling has shifted Storm Austen slightly further south which takes the strongest winds to the south of the UK too.
That said - Friday is still likely to be a very windy day across the southwest/south and with trees still in leaf, disruption is likely.
The latest UKV continues to suggest gusts of 60-70mph across Cornwall and southwest coasts with localised gusts now reaching 80mph as Storm Austen moves east on Friday.
Strong winds will then transfer east along the southern coasts.
Met4Cast - UK Weather retweeted
Quite the satellite image! The tiny sliver of clearance in between the 2 fronts, also note the shadow cast by the one in the west.
Glad to see that despite a lot of uncertainty & changes, the anticipated unsettled second half to October has indeed arrived.
A wet & windy few days to come with potential for further low pressure systems into next week.
The idea that we may see an abrupt change to very unsettled weather this autumn *may* have been either delayed by the recent wobbling of the developing stratospheric vortex, this triggered by strong wave activity via Rossby wave propagation but also wave reflection from the East Asian mountains.
We are now entering a negative mountain torque event (momentum is now being scrubbed from the atmosphere) and as a result, AAM tendency has fallen through the floor, we often talk about changes occurring on infliction points and this is perhaps a good example.
Whilst AAM itself is likely to remain high due to the developing very strong El Nino, the direction of travel, i.e momentum now falling is more important than the sum total.
All of this is essentially a fancy way of saying that towards the middle of October but particularly through the second half of the month we're more likely to see a cyclonic / low pressure driven pattern taking hold vs a continuation of the high pressure that has been anticipated through the first half of October thanks to the recent spike in AAM tendency.
How the vortex develops & behaves through autumn will give hints at what type of winter we might end up having.
The @metoffice have now officially named Fridays low pressure system as Storm Austen, the first named storm of the season.
Austen will bring strong disruptive gusts (50-60mph, locally 70mph) to the southwest and southern coastal counties.
It鈥檚 increasingly likely that the stratospheric vortex will set a new all time weak record during early November.
The idea of a runaway sPV through autumn is dead in the water, although modelling does show a relatively quick recovery thereafter.
Very interesting evolution this year.
Met4Cast - UK Weather retweeted
There鈥檚 naturally a lot of hype for Fridays potential low pressure system and often without the caveats of uncertainty.
The precise track & intensity of this low remains uncertain, note the differences between the GFS and ICON for example.
90-100MPH gusts remain a more extreme / lower likelihood scenario, most likely is gusts of 50-60mph, locally 70mph along exposed coasts.
