Mickael WASELI 🛢🐳

⚠ Bloomberg Top Forecasters - Q3 2025 ⚠ ➡ I ended the quarter ranked as Bloomberg’s: 🏆 Top Forecaster of the 🇺🇸 Economy 🏆 Top Forecaster of the 🇪🇺 Economy 🏆 Top Forecaster of the 🇨🇳 Economy

🇪🇺 #Inflation #ECB | My proxies and regional surveys suggest #Eurozone PPI (August) should decline more than expected. *Bloomberg consensus: - MoM: -0.1%e v 0.4% prior - YoY: -0.4%e v +0.2% prior

🇨🇳 Short update on #China ⚠ As I expected, August data disappointed, dampened by cyclical but also temporary factors (floods, typhoons). ➡ Interesting to note: 1️⃣ FAI growth slumped to 0.5% YoY YTD in August - the slowest pace since August 2020. This was well below the 1.5% consensus. *This was driven by a deeper contraction in private investment (-2.3% vs -1.5% prior) and a rapid deceleration in public investment (2.3% vs 3.5% prior). 2️⃣ Bloomberg Economics estimates investment contracted as much as 7% YoY in August, the worst print outside January-February 2020 when Covid first struck. It could be partly due to flood and typhoons hitting the country in August. In the meantime, concerns about property market are resurging: 3️⃣ New home prices in China fell 0.3% m/m in August based on Reuters calculations of NBS data, matching same pace of decline in two prior months. Bloomberg added values of second-hand homes fell 0.58% m/m, quickening from 0.55% decline in July. 4️⃣ Separate data showed property investment slumped 12.9% YoY YTD (v -12.0% prior). ⚠ Bottom line: Officials have no choice but to: ➡ Increase fiscal support with likely new measures soon. Some of them will be dedicated to housing. ➡ Ease further monetary policy (probably after Fed meeting). ➡ Support financial markets to stabilize households' confidence (still very depressed) Note that without support, U.S. tariffs and probably others (coming from different countries such as Mexico) will further add pressure on activity.

⚠ Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w34 (2025) ⚠ *HT @Mayhem4Markets, @JeffWeniger, @GunjanJS, @GlobalMktObserv, @AnnaEconomist, @neilksethi, @fwred #Stocks #JacksonHole #Liquidity #China #Eurozone christophe-barraud.com/top-1…

⚠ I am truly delighted to have surpassed 2️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ 𝐊 followers ⚠ Thank you all for your continued support.

Ma modeste contribution au @le_Parisien. *Un article de @dadacarpenter ⬇ 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 « Ce niveau de taxe, ce serait du jamais-vu » : pourquoi Donald Trump relance la guerre commerciale leparisien.fr/economie/ce-ni…

🇺🇸 Still, broader uncertainty over Trump’s tariff and fiscal agenda on the long-term structure of the US economy can be seen in the dollar posting a 10.8% slide in the year’s opening six months — its worst first-half performance since 1973 - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

⚠ Monday Brief ⚠ 🇺🇸🇪🇺 #Trump Agrees To Delay EU Tariffs Until July 9 🇯🇵 🇺🇸 #Japan Signals Intent to Reach US Tariff Deal 🇨🇳 Xi Weighs a New Made-in-#China Plan ... christophe-barraud.com/morni…

⚠ Bloomberg Top Forecasters - Q1 2025 ⚠ ➡ I ended the quarter ranked as Bloomberg’s: 🏆 Top Forecaster of the 🇺🇸 Economy 🏆 Top Forecaster of the 🇪🇺 Economy 🏆 Top Forecaster of the 🇨🇳 Economy

⚠ Tuesday Brief ⚠ 🇺🇸 Focus on #Trump-#Musk Interview 🇦🇺 #RBA Cuts Rates 🇨🇳 #China’s Top Legislature to Hold Meetings Feb. 24-25 🇪🇺 EU #Defense Joint Funds Gaining Support ... christophe-barraud.com/morni…

🇺🇸 #ETFs | I took part of @Amundi_FR U.S. #Equities roadshow in #Geneva, #Monaco & #Paris ⚠ *It was a pleasure to share the stage with Ana Harris and Jean-Maurice Ladure (#MSCI), alongside #Amundi expert Vincent Denoiseux, who shared valuable insights into equity #markets and #portfolio construction.

🇺🇸 Bond yields signal buy, but the entry point is choppy. Here's what investors should watch for. - Business Insider businessinsider.com/when-to-… "In October, Christophe Barraud, the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, who has a startling track record for accuracy, said that a Republican sweep would gradually move the 10-year to 5% as investors seek a higher term premium to compensate for duration risks from what could become Washington's manufactured uncertainties. It's a concern the bond market knew all too well could play out." *October interview: businessinsider.com/us-elect…

⚠ Bloomberg Top Forecasters Q4 2024 ⚠ ➡ I ended the year ranked as Bloomberg’s: 🏆 Top Forecaster of the 🇺🇸 Economy (12th time in 13 years) 🏆 Top Forecaster of the 🇪🇺 Economy (7th time in 10 years) 🏆 Top Forecaster of the 🇨🇳 Economy (5th time in 8 years)

🇺🇸 I still think that U.S. growth should surprise upward in both 2024 and 2025. *Bloomberg consensus: 2024: 2.7%e 2025: 2.1%e teapawt.org/C_Barraud/status/18647…

⚠ Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w48 (2024) ⚠ *HT @MikeZaccardi, @SoberLook, @fwred, @StephaneDeo #Stocks #SPX #BOJ #ECB #Germany #France christophe-barraud.com/top-1…

🇫🇷 #France | Comme l'a souligné mon ami Joachim Savigny, le sénat a voté de nouvelles hausses d’impôts 👇 (linkedin.com/posts/joachim-s…) #Cryptos, fonds euros, art, voitures, yachts à l’IFI (teapawt.org/C_Barraud/status/18620…) et une Flat tax à 33% (teapawt.org/C_Barraud/status/18620…). ---------------------------------------- *Cela s'accompagne d'un probable triplement de la contribution exceptionnelle sur les hauts revenus (imposition marginale pouvant aller jusqu'à 57% pour un célibataire). ⚠ L'effet signal est catastrophique dans un contexte où : ➡ De nombreuses destinations attractives offrent des package fiscaux de plus en plus compétitifs et les formalités administratives sont de moins en moins complexes. ➡ En parallèle, les prestations dans le secteur de la santé, de l'éducation et des infrastructures ne cessent de se dégrader en France, sans parler de la sécurité. *A l'heure où 75% de l’impôt sur le revenu est payé par 10% des ménages les plus riches, le pari des autorités semble particulièrement osé.

⚠ Wednesday Brief ⚠ 🇺🇸 Focus on U.S. Core PCE Inflation Index 🇳🇿 #RBNZ Cut Rates 🇫🇷 French Bond Risk Increases on Budget Battle 🌎 Senior #Hamas Official Is Ready For an Agreement ... christophe-barraud.com/morni…

🇺🇸 My latest interview to @BusinessInsider/@MktsInsider ⬇ businessinsider.com/2025-for…

⚠ Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w47 (2024) ⚠ *HT @neilksethi, @Barchart, @jasongoepfert, @MikeZaccardi, @fwred #SPX #Stocks #Fed #Dollar #Euro #Inflation christophe-barraud.com/top-1…