Owned by @Mxdplays | $600k+ in Profit Since '22 | Stop Gambling, Start Investing.
Joined March 2023
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Was trying to give out a free play but as I went to click post the line moved. Total has now dropped to 135.5 on Stake which is where it should have been. This bet can still be placed on BetRivers at U140.5 (-143). OFFICIAL PLAY: New Haven/Syracuse UNDER 139.5 (-128).
Sabres ML (-152). Sabres have proved to be the better team in this matchup. After a 6-1 finish last game in Boston territory I fully expect them to come home and finish this series off. Swayman has tried his best but this offence has overwhelmed Boston. Alex Lyon confirmed makes this a great spot to back a goalie who just held the Bruins to no more than 1 goal in back to back games.
Magic ML (+120). Last minute free play so not a lot of time to break this play down but to keep a long story short I like the Magic in this spot to step up at home. The last game really came down to just one really bad quarter. Magic have been awful from beyond the arc and home court should help bring them back to their usual averages.
Spurs ML (-125). I played this days ago at (-120) when I was less confident but now it seems as if Wemby has an even better chance to play. Lines are moving towards Spurs now so trying to get this out as quick as possible. To keep it simple I like Spurs with or without Wemby here and the line would indicate right now that he may be trending towards playing. If he plays this will shatter the CLV.
Suns ML (-130). I got this earlier in the day at (-122) but I still see value. Just been busy so got to the free play a bit late. Not going to do a writeup for this one want to get this out quick incase the market moves before.
Utah Mammoth ML (-145). This price is a bit harder to get now but I would say it is a good play all the way to (-150). Mammoth appear to be catching fire winning their last 4 games and putting up 6 or more goals in all of them. Line is moving in agreement with Utah showing value here as well as my model indicating a bigger edge than implied. Best of luck we go for 4 free play winners in a row tonight!
Sharks ML (-150). Going to keep this one short and sweet. I expect Alex to do well tonight. He had a very rough stretch to say the least but he has looked good in his last two starts. One team is pushing for playoffs and one team has no chance to make playoffs. Spencer Knight is 2-7-1 in his L10 games on the road. Give me the much better team at home in a spot that matters a lot.
Full Sense ML (-150).
TYLOO ML (-213).
Not going to do a full breakdown for these bets. They start in a few hours. Would recommend Kalshi/Polymarket. BetOnline & Pinnacle have these markets too but Full Sense is juiced to -180 on those sharp books. Ignore the -1.7% and +0.7% current values because this is a very low liquidity market so CLV and things of that nature don't matter as much.
Ducks ML (-127). Favorable matchup metrics, and a noticeable edge in possession and shot quality all lean Ducks. They are 23-10-3 at home this season against a Blues team that is 13-19-5 on the road. Look for the Ducks to bounce back here after a rough loss to the Sharks in which they actually had the edge in expected goals but puck luck was not on their side.
Variance. You are more than welcome to fade me. I will post my bets on a P2P and you can accept. We both know you won't put your money where your mouth is though. Every single sharp has bad runs. I don't control variance.
