Father, Husband, Trader, Marine
Michigan, USA
Joined January 2009
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Mike retweeted
I see many fingers being pointed on who whiffed and who called the pullback. Some advice. Don’t worry about them. Focus on you. Your work, who you surround yourself with and be the best you can be
Mike retweeted
Trades that turn into Investments are code for I SUCK. Don’t suck and be humble enough to take a loss.
Mike retweeted
One of my favorite days of the week! @chigrl Tracy and I will talk about what's moving the market now, and what may be moving into the second half of the week.
You have time NOW to join discord and listen in at 1PM ET.
It's free to join, so get in there now!
@NTLiveMedia
Join @PipCzar and me at 1:00 PM ET on the @NTLiveMedia discord channel for the mid week market update
Link: discord.com/invite/ntlive
Mike retweeted
There is blame all around about the growing product crisis. Yes, conflicts and wars have exacerbated the situation as of late. However, the problem is more deeply rooted.
Refining capacity peaked around 1980 at roughly 18.4 b/d of capacity per 1,000 people, collapsed through the mid 80s rationalization. Today sits near 12.8. That is about 30% below the 1980 peak, and the slide has resumed since 2010 as capacity growth stopped keeping pace with population.
Per capita refining capacity is a third below where it was in 1980, and the world has not built its way back in 45 years.
I will post a deeper dive on this on my substack Renegaderesources.pro
Mike retweeted
Chinese Refiners Drive Up Russian Crude Prices in Hunt for Oil
China’s hunt to replace lost Persian Gulf oil is driving up prices of Russian crude that loads on the country’s Pacific coast, leaving independent refiners struggling with higher costs.
November-loading ESPO was offered at premiums of as much as $7 a barrel over ICE Brent this week, said traders involved in the market, up from about $2 earlier this month. October cargoes are sold out after trading at as much as $5 above the benchmark, said the traders, asking not to be named as they’re not authorized to speak to media. (Bloomberg)
Mike retweeted
100% concur with @RazorOil
Everyone cheering the Venezuela deal that thinks a flood of cheap oil is about to hit and pull gas prices down. It isn't.
Venezuela pumps about 1.2M bpd right now, up from just under a million. That gain came mostly from Chevron ramping up existing wells after sanctions were lifted, not from new drilling. The easy barrels are already back.
The reserve number is a stock that will take decades to convert to flow.
It is a 100 year deal because it takes decades. The barrels that could actually move a US pump price are 5 to 15 years out.
I keep seeing posts celebrating that oil is about to crash off the Trump–Venezuela deal.
Nothing changed. Reserves ≠ Production !
That deal is a reserves headline!! not immediate barrels…Orinoco extra-heavy crude is biodegraded, low-API, high-asphaltene sludge that still needs wells, sand control, diluent, heat or upgrading, power, and pipelines…so 65B barrels on paper does not lift output next quarter.
Canada has over 170B bbls in reserves yet we can’t just produce it all tomorrow can we?
Capital is the bottleneck!!
Neither Orinoco nor Alberta bitumen flows or refines easily; both are energy-intensive, heterogeneous reservoirs where steam, cold-flow limits, and plant capacity, not the resource number set the pace.
Example: MEG Energy $MEG.TO that got acquired last year has nearly 4B of reserves and a 50-year reserve life!! yet only about 100,000 bbl/d for a decade because Christina Lake’s facilities capped production until new capex was spent.
Reserves ≠ Production !
Canada already has post-payout kit running at scale; Venezuela has to rebuild that kit. Volatile $60-$80 oil does NOT fund capex-heavy heavy-oil projects on a political clock.
No near-term uplift, no crash from this deal…China knows it. 🫡🪒
Mike retweeted
PSA: Michele "Mish" Schneider account was hacked a while ago. SHE IS BACK! Her new handle is @ecomodfam
Mike retweeted
Get prepared for next week's CPI and PPI data
Is Inflation More Important Than jobs?
Check out the Week Ahead video!
youtube.com/watch?v=-6LtjvEn…
@PipCzar of TradingAnalytix discusses the week ahead in markets following the Non-Farm Payroll jobs report miss, and how the equity markets hit a new all-time high this week. He discusses the big move in the gold and silver market and how the US Dollar still is holding key support levels for now. He also discusses the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Norges Central Bank decisions as well.
Blake talks technicals on the S&P, NASDAQ100, US Dollar Index, Gold, Yields and some FOREX markets.
Blake also gives you his top three trade setups for next week and reviews his setups from last week.
Mike retweeted
For a reference point, one gigawatt is equivalent to the capacity of a traditional nuclear reactor ...estimates are 194 gigawatts needed. We do not have enough projects in the pipeline to cover this need >>>
Data Centers on Track to Suck Up a Fifth of US Power Use by 2035
Data centers in the US will account for about 20% of the nation’s electricity consumption in 2035, up from 5.9% today, according to BloombergNEF.
That compares with an estimated 12% in 2030, it said in a report Tuesday. In states such as Virginia and Texas where data centers are concentrated, their share of electricity use will be even higher.
Given the speed at which soaring demand from artificial intelligence is increasing, BNEF projects data center power needs to reach 194 gigawatts in the country by 2035. That’s a jump of 83% from its December forecast. The gain reflects a growing pipeline of AI facilities poised to be built within the next decade. (Bloomberg)
Mike retweeted
Going live with @JimWelshMacro now to talk inflation expectations, #crudeoil, inflation relief (??) and more!
Mike retweeted
How will the World Cup impact this month's US NFP competition?
forexanalytix.com/blog/how-w…
Mike retweeted
Middle East wars are now scheduled from 9pm Friday to 10.30pm Sunday (GMT). That’s it. Fighting outside designed non-market hours isn’t allowed.
Mike retweeted
The one and only @JimWelshMacro will be joining @PipCzar in 10 minutes on the show!
Come join with your questions!
