Day Trader | $BTC | @ParagonDen | TA-Focused • Patterns • Waves • Liquidity | High-Quality Market Updates & Trade Setups
Not Financial Advise
Joined July 2025
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$BTC
If You Missed the last 2 longs from 62K & 75K,
You haven't missed out on anything.
The Bull Market is literally just getting started.
The biggest moves to capitalize on are yet to come.
There are countless high-quality trades you can take and make serious money.
All you have to do is Buy Support & Be Patient.
It's literally as easy as that.
I publicly showed how it's done throughout the bear market.
Then I caught every penny of this pump from 62K through my swing longs.
Now, I'm running a dedicated challenge for free, where I'll be taking these exact kind of swing trades only.
Starting from 5K. First target is 15K, but we won't stop there.
The goal this time isn't just to catch the entire pump of this bull market.
It's also to transparently document how even a small amount can be compounded massively when traded smartly.
If you're interested in following along, join our free Discord from the link in bio.
Let's keep this thing going.
$USDT.D looks interesting...
Once we see a rejection here, The next leg should easily take us down into the 5.6%-4.9% region.
Which means, $BTC should be trading well above 90k by that time.
This slow & choppy push towards the upside will most likely be followed by an impulsive leg towards the downside on USDT.D.
Classic Staircase Up, Elevator Down type of scenario.
$ETH
The Swing Long has been Triggered.
We completed a 5-Wave Bearish Impulse inside our Wave 4 POI.
Now, We should be entering Wave 5, Unless there's one final sweep of the lows into the 2160-2112 region still pending.
Either way, I'm looking for a reclaim of 2357 for confirmation of Wave 4.
$BTC | 1H
Looking for a small pump into the Monthly Close.
We've created some liquidity around the 78.7k-79.2k region, Which should ideally get taken out before the month closes.
From there, I'm looking for a Sweep of the Current Lows at the start of Next Month to mark the local bottom.
The Key Zone where we should ideally tap into is the 74.9k-72.9k region.
That's where we have the Monthly FVG along with the Previous Yearly Low, Which should act as a strong Support Zone on revisit.
Expecting the local bottom to be formed right after the monthly open and inside the next weekly session.
$BTC | Monthly
Today is the monthly close, so here's what I'm looking at
On the Monthly Chart, We saw a Bullish CHoCH last month when we closed above the 82.8k high back in September.
That close flipped the Monthly Structure from Bearish to Bullish. And following these major trend changes, We see a pullback before continuation.
Now, We've seen the current month retracing back lower, Giving us that necessary Bullish Pullback before the next leg towards the upside.
Right now, We have a Bullish FVG sitting between the 74.9k & 66.9k region. This is the ideal zone for price to tap into before continuing higher.
Historically, During the Bear Market, We've seen that before every major pump, Price first took out untapped FVGs before continuing its trend towards new lows.
I believe we could see something similar here, Except this time, We should trend towards the upside after the pullback as the Monthly Structure has already flipped Bullish.
So a sweep into this FVG is something I'm keeping an eye on at the start of next month before Longing my Longs.
$BTC | Monthly
Today is the monthly close, so here's what I'm looking at
On the Monthly Chart, We saw a Bullish CHoCH last month when we closed above the 82.8k high back in September.
That close flipped the Monthly Structure from Bearish to Bullish. And following these major trend changes, We see a pullback before continuation.
Now, We've seen the current month retracing back lower, Giving us that necessary Bullish Pullback before the next leg towards the upside.
Right now, We have a Bullish FVG sitting between the 74.9k & 66.9k region. This is the ideal zone for price to tap into before continuing higher.
Historically, During the Bear Market, We've seen that before every major pump, Price first took out untapped FVGs before continuing its trend towards new lows.
I believe we could see something similar here, Except this time, We should trend towards the upside after the pullback as the Monthly Structure has already flipped Bullish.
So a sweep into this FVG is something I'm keeping an eye on at the start of next month before Longing my Longs.
$BTC
We mostly bottomed shortly after the Mid-Terms.
This time, however, we're seeing a different setup. BTC has already bottomed before the Mid-Terms and has been dumping into the event for the last 4 weeks.
From a structural perspective, we've already swept most of the meaningful liquidity sitting towards the downside, while consistently front-running the highs and leaving a significant amount of buy-side liquidity untouched.
This creates an interesting imbalance in the liquidity profile.
The market has spent weeks pricing in fear, forcing people out of their positions and building a bearish bias while the liquidity resting above remains largely unclaimed.
Now, that Buy-Side Liquidity becomes the next logical target.
Fear is leading Greed right now and that's exactly when we get the most aggressive reversals to catch the majority off guard.
$BTC
There's a good chance we sweep the 74.9k low right at the start of next month.
That zone also aligns with the previous yearly candle low, which should act as a strong S/R on revisit.
Ideally, I'd like to see a wick into the 74.9k-72.9k region at the beginning of next month for clearing out the liquidity below the previous low region.
However, I'm also keeping 76.2k as a potential front-run level in case we don't sweep the low and give everyone the obvious long entry.
Either way, all three of these levels are of high interest to me.
If you aren't long already, I'd pay close attention to these zones for a potential swing entry targeting 93k region.
$BTC
The whole market is quiet.
You know why?
People have already chopped their money away inside these ranges.
They kept buying the middle, shorting the middle, flipping bias every few candles and paying the market over and over again.
Now the market finally starts giving the kind of move they were waiting for...
And they're out of cash.
Range bound price actions don't always destroy you with one big loss.
They slowly bleed you through overtrading, bad entries, tight stops, low-quality setups and the constant need to be involved.
You don't need to trade just because the market is open.
Sometimes the highest-quality decision is simply preserving your capital while everyone else is donating theirs.
Because when the opportunity finally arrives, the trader with capital, patience and a clear mind has a completely different advantage.
You don't need to predict exactly when the range will end.
You just need to make sure you still have bullets when it does.
$ETH
I gave you the key retest level months in advance...
Don't miss out now.
This Is The Most Important Level For solana:7vfCXTUXx5WJV5JADk17DUJ4ksgau7utNKj4b963voxs
Every major pump we've seen has originated from this single level, which has been respected perfectly for well over 4 years.
That Key Level Is: 2151.00
Once we retest this level, I personally will be scaling into Swing Longs.
It could also serve as a pretty decent late Spot Entry Zone for anyone who missed the initial move.
This level has been respected for years. Mark it on your charts now and be prepared!
This is Exactly where you Buy $BTC
Fear naturally kicks in when you see the price going lower than your expectations.
But that fear is the reason why you know everyone else is in this same condition.
Most people are selling because the pain of watching their position go red becomes greater than their conviction.
And that's exactly what creates the opportunity.
When sentiment is extremely bearish, liquidity gets flushed, weak hands start capitulating and the crowd becomes more focused on protecting capital than looking for value.
You don't buy simply because price is going down.
You buy when that fear brings price into a level where the risk is clearly defined.
The market will always feel the worst right before it starts feeling better.
The best entries rarely feel safe.
They feel uncomfortable because everyone else is looking for a reason to sell.
$BTC
I'm All In on SPOT.
Bought the remaining 30% Spot here, bringing my average Spot Entry to 65,350.
I'm keeping the full position with a Full Sell Limit at 67,000.
This keeps the entire position risk-free, even in the worst-case scenario.
The majority of my buys were made near the absolute bottom, so I had enough room to add here while still keeping the position safe.
$BTC | Spot
Deployed another 30% into Spot at 62.6k and I'm now holding 70% of my planned position.
I'll look to deploy the remaining 30% around the start of next month or at the 54k-42k region, depending on how price reacts. I'll share a full update soon covering what I'm looking at.
If we go below 60k from here, I'll simply deploy the remaining 30%. But I wouldn't risk missing the next leg up just because I was waiting for another 10%-20% drop that might never happen.
My average entry is now 60.7k, which, from a long-term perspective, I'm completely happy with.
$BTC
Nothing out of the ordinary.
Shared the full thought process behind why we could tap this zone just yesterday, and we've seen it come into play shortly after.
This blue box (76.4K–72.9K) is where I'm planning to go heavy on longs and add to my Spot bags.
No changes to the plan. We're still bullish, and we're still expecting higher prices as long as this blue box holds.
Buy the Fear.
$BTC
Zoomed in w/ Last Cycle's Fractals
Now, We all know that we've been following the Last Cycle's PA pretty much to the dot so far. However, I don't solely rely on historical references as they're never guaranteed to play out again, and each cycle's PA is different from the last one in one way or another.
But the thing is, When I couple the Yearly Candle Time + Liquidity analysis I shared above with the last cycle's price action, They pretty much complement each other.
In fact, It feels less like a historical PA reference here and more like a visual representation of that thought process on the chart right now.
Based on this Fractal, The roadmap is the same:
--> Retest of the previous yearly candle's low to complete HTF Wave 2.
--> Pump back above the yearly open and close the year in green around 93.6k
--> Next yearly candle holds the current yearly open and continues towards the upside.
Pretty much what I shared in the post above, and both scenarios line up pretty well and complement each other.
So where I'm getting at is that if we lose the current lows, It would very likely mean we repeat something similar to what we saw back in 2023.
A HTF correction is due, and the 74k-72k region has always remained on my radar.
However, For that region to come into play, We first need to break below the 0.618 Fib on the 1D, sitting at 79.6k.
$ETH
Tapping a Major S/R Zone
This is where the Max Pain was sitting, and given the current market narrative, I'd say this zone has delivered exactly what we wanted.
No changes to the plan. We're still inside a Wave 4, and I'm continuing to expect a push into Wave 5 over the next few months.
My Spot Add Limit at 2222 was also triggered. The next one is now sitting at 2160, which is another major historical S/R level.
I expect us to hold this zone and continue working towards the upside.
$ETH
Finding support for the next impulse.
Right now, We're bouncing from the first POI for Wave 4 (0.382 Fib), which is the first support zone for this correction.
The confirmation of Wave 4 being complete will be a reclaim of the 2370 region, where we had the previous range lows.
If we manage to flip and hold above that level, it will validate a push towards the 2966-3283 region in the upcoming months.
This upside target remains valid even if we dip a little further into the 0.5 Fib region around 2150.
We have a Daily FVG sitting there, which could potentially be filled in a max pain scenario.
My plan for now is simply to buy around this Wave 4 support zone.
I'm still in my long and have also bought some spot around these levels which I shared inside our free discord.
$BTC
Zoomed in w/ Last Cycle's Fractals
Now, We all know that we've been following the Last Cycle's PA pretty much to the dot so far. However, I don't solely rely on historical references as they're never guaranteed to play out again, and each cycle's PA is different from the last one in one way or another.
But the thing is, When I couple the Yearly Candle Time + Liquidity analysis I shared above with the last cycle's price action, They pretty much complement each other.
In fact, It feels less like a historical PA reference here and more like a visual representation of that thought process on the chart right now.
Based on this Fractal, The roadmap is the same:
--> Retest of the previous yearly candle's low to complete HTF Wave 2.
--> Pump back above the yearly open and close the year in green around 93.6k
--> Next yearly candle holds the current yearly open and continues towards the upside.
Pretty much what I shared in the post above, and both scenarios line up pretty well and complement each other.
So where I'm getting at is that if we lose the current lows, It would very likely mean we repeat something similar to what we saw back in 2023.
A HTF correction is due, and the 74k-72k region has always remained on my radar.
However, For that region to come into play, We first need to break below the 0.618 Fib on the 1D, sitting at 79.6k.
$BTC
This yearly candle is important.
My base scenario was that we would deviate above the yearly open and tap 93.6k before retracing back below 87.4k and closing the yearly candle in red.
Then, when the 2027 yearly candle opens, it would first fill some of the wick of the current year's candle, where we'd get a retest of the 74.5k region before continuing towards the upside.
Now, Putting a Wave Count on this thesis, It would look something like this:
Deviation above 93k = Monthly Wave 1.
Yearly close below 87.4k, making the candle close in red.
The 2027 candle fills some of the wick of the 2026 candle = Monthly Wave 2 around the 74k region.
Following that wick fill, We pump towards the upside inside Wave 3 and create a new ATH.
This was my overall time, price + liquidity thesis behind the Wave Count I'm tracking on the Weekly/Monthly, and it's still pretty much valid as long as we keep holding the 0.618 Fib and the trendline on the Daily.
However, The catch is that if we lose that 0.618 Fib / trendline on the Daily and actually complete Wave 2 in the start of next month, It would change the timeline significantly.
Meaning that the imbalance which should ideally be cleared by next year's candle would instead be filled during the current yearly session.
Now, Given that we have liquidity stacked above the yearly open as of now, A tap into the 76k-74k region for completing Wave 2 within this year would mean we're likely to pump for the rest of Q4 and close the yearly candle in green, potentially around the 93.3k region.
From there, The next yearly candle would only come down to the 87.4k region for a minor retest before continuing higher.
So if we complete the Weekly Wave 2 in the upcoming days, It would mean we're setting up for a bigger impulse before the end of the year, and November-December could take us into the 93k-96k region.
$BTC
This yearly candle is important.
My base scenario was that we would deviate above the yearly open and tap 93.6k before retracing back below 87.4k and closing the yearly candle in red.
Then, when the 2027 yearly candle opens, it would first fill some of the wick of the current year's candle, where we'd get a retest of the 74.5k region before continuing towards the upside.
Now, Putting a Wave Count on this thesis, It would look something like this:
Deviation above 93k = Monthly Wave 1.
Yearly close below 87.4k, making the candle close in red.
The 2027 candle fills some of the wick of the 2026 candle = Monthly Wave 2 around the 74k region.
Following that wick fill, We pump towards the upside inside Wave 3 and create a new ATH.
This was my overall time, price + liquidity thesis behind the Wave Count I'm tracking on the Weekly/Monthly, and it's still pretty much valid as long as we keep holding the 0.618 Fib and the trendline on the Daily.
However, The catch is that if we lose that 0.618 Fib / trendline on the Daily and actually complete Wave 2 in the start of next month, It would change the timeline significantly.
Meaning that the imbalance which should ideally be cleared by next year's candle would instead be filled during the current yearly session.
Now, Given that we have liquidity stacked above the yearly open as of now, A tap into the 76k-74k region for completing Wave 2 within this year would mean we're likely to pump for the rest of Q4 and close the yearly candle in green, potentially around the 93.3k region.
From there, The next yearly candle would only come down to the 87.4k region for a minor retest before continuing higher.
So if we complete the Weekly Wave 2 in the upcoming days, It would mean we're setting up for a bigger impulse before the end of the year, and November-December could take us into the 93k-96k region.
$BTC
Back at the 0.618 Fib / Bottom Trendline Region.
Quite boring PA when we're just bouncing up and down inside the same choppy range.
The plan However, Remains the Same.
As long as we're holding this 0.618 Fib region / Trendline, The breakout from this range will be towards the upside.
Lose this trendline and we'll likely see the 77.8k-74.4k region next, potentially at the start of next month before continuing towards the upside.
$BTC | LTF
This Deviation Zone is where we need to see a bounce from if we're going to continue pushing higher during this daily session.
If we break below the current Asia Low (80.5k), It will most likely invalidate the bullish thesis for the day and put us back inside the previous range.
In that case, We have the Weekly Open sitting at 80.1k, Which will act as a key S/R level for now. Losing it would expose the current lows.
At the current lows, We also have Trendline Liquidity built up which would likely be taken if we lose the Weekly Open.
Ideally, We want to see this Deviation Zone deliver a bounce and send us back towards the upside, Where we have the Daily FVG sitting at 82k-82.5k.
$BTC
Retest Done. ✅
Bulls must defend this zone now...
$BTC | LTF
A retest of Daily Open could be next here.
We have some internal liquidity sitting there which will likely be taken out before continuation higher.
However, For us to continue moving up, We need to hold the Daily Open region.
Losing this level will put bulls in danger once again.
$BTC | LTF
A retest of Daily Open could be next here.
We have some internal liquidity sitting there which will likely be taken out before continuation higher.
However, For us to continue moving up, We need to hold the Daily Open region.
Losing this level will put bulls in danger once again.