No major changes for now on $BTC. $BTC has moved down to the range lows and is at a relatively critical point. So far nothing alarming has happened, especially given the PA over the past few days with $BTC continuing to move between the range highs and range lows of the current range. 80k has held so far and no downside breakout will be confirmed until that level is broken at the very least. If it breaks, the next level to watch would be 75k. The macro picture looks bad. Tomorrow is Friday, and if equities close around current levels we’ll see the first break of a multi-year uptrend. If that gets confirmed, equities could sell off hard (more and way harder) and drag $BTC down with them. And that’s just one of several macro factors pointing towards a rough outlook for the economy. As I said I’m not touching anything until $BTC breaks to the upside (which I personally doubt will happen) or finally moves lower. For now, I haven’t wanted to trade this choppy market as it’s exhausting to follow given all the news and events that have been moving it lately. GL.

hello I'm back I took a few days off because I felt it was better to step away from the market and watch from a distance rather than stay glued to it and keep making bad decisions. But it’s time to get back. For now, these are my current positions and what I plan to do with them: - $SOL, $ETH and $HYPE shorts: It’s pretty clear that my timing on these entries was terrible and that I should have cut them a long time ago. It was a mistake, but what’s done is done, and there’s no point dwelling on it. Now I have to work with what I’ve got. I still consider crypto prices to be overpriced, and I still believe we’ll see $BTC at 40k on the HTF. So for now, I’ll keep holding these shorts and wait to see whether $BTC can finally break through the resistance it has been struggling with or not. At this point I obviously have no intention of closing the shorts, as we’ve seen significant weakness over the past few days that hadn’t been present for a while. Combined with the PA in traditional markets, I think this could finally be the moment. But if it isn’t and $BTC manages to break above 87k, I’ll cut my positions and reset. - $XRP long: This is simply a small hedge against my shorts. If the bull market really is about to start, I think the “normie coin” par excellence is a great candidate to hedge my shorts with. I’ll keep holding it for now.

hello I'm back I took a few days off because I felt it was better to step away from the market and watch from a distance rather than stay glued to it and keep making bad decisions. But it’s time to get back. For now, these are my current positions and what I plan to do with them: - $SOL, $ETH and $HYPE shorts: It’s pretty clear that my timing on these entries was terrible and that I should have cut them a long time ago. It was a mistake, but what’s done is done, and there’s no point dwelling on it. Now I have to work with what I’ve got. I still consider crypto prices to be overpriced, and I still believe we’ll see $BTC at 40k on the HTF. So for now, I’ll keep holding these shorts and wait to see whether $BTC can finally break through the resistance it has been struggling with or not. At this point I obviously have no intention of closing the shorts, as we’ve seen significant weakness over the past few days that hadn’t been present for a while. Combined with the PA in traditional markets, I think this could finally be the moment. But if it isn’t and $BTC manages to break above 87k, I’ll cut my positions and reset. - $XRP long: This is simply a small hedge against my shorts. If the bull market really is about to start, I think the “normie coin” par excellence is a great candidate to hedge my shorts with. I’ll keep holding it for now.

hello I'm back I took a few days off because I felt it was better to step away from the market and watch from a distance rather than stay glued to it and keep making bad decisions. But it’s time to get back. For now, these are my current positions and what I plan to do with them: - $SOL, $ETH and $HYPE shorts: It’s pretty clear that my timing on these entries was terrible and that I should have cut them a long time ago. It was a mistake, but what’s done is done, and there’s no point dwelling on it. Now I have to work with what I’ve got. I still consider crypto prices to be overpriced, and I still believe we’ll see $BTC at 40k on the HTF. So for now, I’ll keep holding these shorts and wait to see whether $BTC can finally break through the resistance it has been struggling with or not. At this point I obviously have no intention of closing the shorts, as we’ve seen significant weakness over the past few days that hadn’t been present for a while. Combined with the PA in traditional markets, I think this could finally be the moment. But if it isn’t and $BTC manages to break above 87k, I’ll cut my positions and reset. - $XRP long: This is simply a small hedge against my shorts. If the bull market really is about to start, I think the “normie coin” par excellence is a great candidate to hedge my shorts with. I’ll keep holding it for now.

Many people asked for an update so here it is: Almost no change in the uPNL. TPed the $PONS long for minimal profits as shared during the last week. Still holding $SOL, $HYPE and $ETH shorts. Many have asked me if I closed the shorts, the answer is no. $BTC playing around what I consider my invalidation zone, but as I clearly stated I was going to close on a clear +83k break and hold. It hasn't happened yet imo. $BTC broke it and it even touched 86k, but that got rejected pretty quick. I consider I haven't seen yet that typical bull market break. When $BTC starts a bull market and starts a real run it usually doesn't take that much time to break important levels like this one. That's why I'm still fading the move. I still haven't seen that clear 83k break. Break 83k, get rejected at 86k and keep playing around the most important resistance isn't breaking the 83k zone clearly imo. So I'll keep holding until I consider it's proven that the downtrend is over. Like I said many times before, I'm not asking you to agree with my thesis and I'm not trying to convince anyone that anything I say will happen. I take my trades based on my ideas and I can easily be wrong too, I just like to share what I do. GL.

Positions update: Since the quoted post, there hasn’t been much change in my positioning. As I shared I took an initial long on $PONS that I closed in profit + BE, and later took another one, which is the one I’m still holding. I haven’t been posting much over the past few days because I decided to take a much slower approach, with the idea of avoiding realizing the current losses while also avoiding losing even more money by constantly follwing the market. This slower approach is also backed by the fact that I still maintain my view that we’re in a bear market rally. Not going to deny the obvious, the positions are in a rough spot. But as I’ve said the thesis remains the same, hold the $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts until the new lows I expect to come soon, or until $BTC breaks and holds above 83k and confirms a breakout of the downtrend. $PONS is just a hedge that I consider a potentially good bet on the RH chain. I understand why people are bullish given the price action that brought us here, but it’s undeniable that we’re still in a downtrend until $BTC breaks 83k. I’ll stick with my thesis until we see new lows or that invalidation.

Positions update: Since the quoted post, there hasn’t been much change in my positioning. As I shared I took an initial long on $PONS that I closed in profit + BE, and later took another one, which is the one I’m still holding. I haven’t been posting much over the past few days because I decided to take a much slower approach, with the idea of avoiding realizing the current losses while also avoiding losing even more money by constantly follwing the market. This slower approach is also backed by the fact that I still maintain my view that we’re in a bear market rally. Not going to deny the obvious, the positions are in a rough spot. But as I’ve said the thesis remains the same, hold the $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts until the new lows I expect to come soon, or until $BTC breaks and holds above 83k and confirms a breakout of the downtrend. $PONS is just a hedge that I consider a potentially good bet on the RH chain. I understand why people are bullish given the price action that brought us here, but it’s undeniable that we’re still in a downtrend until $BTC breaks 83k. I’ll stick with my thesis until we see new lows or that invalidation.

Still holding my underwater $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts. Not much change for now, still sticking to not chasing trades unless something obvious comes out. Still think that macro is cooked and that this is a lower high. Break and hold above 83k would invalidate this and would make me think that the bull is really here.

Positioning update: I'm still short $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE. The only adjustment I've made for now was closing 20% of my $HYPE and $ETH positions to push my liquidation prices further away ($3.8k & $180). I still believe the bottom is not in and that we still have to see new lows ($55-52k, potentially even $40k). I consider the current move to be nothing more than a bear market rally or bull trap, and I ultimately expect us to see new lows before the bull market begins. From the current level, I'm watching 3 zones: $82-84k, $70-69k, and $60-55k. The midpoint of everything is $70k, and I think $BTC will move towards that area relatively soon. Either before moving up to $82k or afterwards, but I believe the $82-84k area could be the generational top of this bear market rally. The $60-55k area will eventually be revisited imo, but I don't think it will happen directly from the current level. I find it difficult to see this entire pump V-reversing straight down, so I think price will first reach $70k, chop around that area for a while, and eventually bleed down towards those new lows. I'm in no rush to open longs, and even if some potentially good trades present themselves, I'm not interested in chasing price at current levels. I don't feel any FOMO, in the first place because of my bearish bias and secondly, even if I thought this was the bottom, if the bull market really has started we'll have months if not years of countless opportunities and trades ahead of us. I still have extremely high conviction in my positions and believe this move is simply a temporary narrative that will unwind soon. As I've mentioned in many posts, my invalidation for my bearish bias would be seeing the market hold this move and confirm that the potential bottom is actually in. As I always insist in my posts, this is just my opinion. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything or get anyone out of their positions. Bottom is not in imo, and if I'm wrong, there's good news too because I'll make the loss back 20x over during the bull market.

Where's my invalidation? My invalidation for my bearish thesis would be a break and confirmation above 83k $BTC. Until then, I simply consider this a lower high. That's an undeniable fact as of today, it doesn't matter whether you're bullish or bearish, it's a lower high until that level is broken. Once 83k is reclaimed, then we can start talking about a break of the downtrend structure. If price eventually goes to new lows, I don't think it will happen all at once either. Given the current sentiment, I think it's likely that $BTC establishes a new range between 70k and 82k. And if the final destination is lower I think it will take time, because every lower level that gets tested will likely be bid by people who are already convinced that the new bull market has started. On the other hand, if I'm wrong and the bottom is actually in, I think bulls should want to see continued momentum and volume to break 83k and prove that this isn't just another lower high. 83k is not the final certified guarantee that the bottom is in and the bull market is back, but I do consider it a good level to give up on the shorts and start changing my view, because once that level is broken the possibility of seeing 100k and above becomes much more realistic than it is right now. So far all we have is a huge move to the upside. There's no denying that the numbers and probability are there for this to potentially be the bottom that many people are already assuming it is, but it still needs confirmation. If 83k breaks and I see several closes confirming the breakout, I'll change my view that this is simply a lower high fueled by the Trump's narrative. It's also worth pointing out something I find quite funny, the insane amount of hate that almost any bearish post gets on the TL. It doesn't matter who posts it, what their track record is or what their background is, most bearish posts receive an insane amount of hate. The quoted post for example is probably the post I've ever had with the highest comment:hate ratio. This isn't an indicator in itself or anything like that, but I do think it shows that a lot of people are heavily positioned in one direction and simply can't afford to be wrong about their choice. Sitting on hands for now until 83k is broken or until price starts trending down.

$BTC structure looking very cooked here.

Still holding my underwater $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts. Not much change for now, still sticking to not chasing trades unless something obvious comes out. Still think that macro is cooked and that this is a lower high. Break and hold above 83k would invalidate this and would make me think that the bull is really here.

Still holding my underwater $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts. Not much change for now, still sticking to not chasing trades unless something obvious comes out. Still think that macro is cooked and that this is a lower high. Break and hold above 83k would invalidate this and would make me think that the bull is really here.

Still holding my underwater $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts. Not much change for now, still sticking to not chasing trades unless something obvious comes out. Still think that macro is cooked and that this is a lower high. Break and hold above 83k would invalidate this and would make me think that the bull is really here.

Light cook $PONS

Bidding $PONS on this dip

Not looking good