MtarfaLee retweeted
'Chronic lack of sea time' hitting Royal Navy with force running out of Captains portsmouth.co.uk/news/defenc… The Royal Navy is flirting with disaster. The RN now has 5 frigates, but 2 could be ruled “unseaworthy," which leaves 3, all over 24 years old; 1 on ops, 1 in work up, 1 in maintenance. This is insane and if there ever is a war with Russia by 2030, as the Ministry of Defense says is a possibility, then the North Atlantic will be left mostly undefended by the Royal Navy, which means an even greater burden will be placed on the US Navy to fill in the defensive Greenland/Iceland/UK Gap. That is not only dangerous for the defense of the UK, but for all of NATO as well.
MtarfaLee retweeted
Replying to @IBallantyn
xitter.cf/jeromestarkey/status/2… If the Defense Editor of the Sun is raising the alarm, you would think other UK papers would do the same. Worse, the British Ministry of Defense (MoD) has been asked to find £10.7 billion in internal efficiencies through 2029–30 and up to £3.5 billion in immediate spending reductions and reprioritizations to bridge a multi-billion-pound funding gap in the Defense Investment Plan. Not only does the Royal Navy need more ships, and badly too, but the Labour government actually wants to cut the defense budget. It must be hard for our adversaries to take NATO seriously when the UK does stupid things like this, and that destroys deterrence.
🚨 ROYAL Navy is on track to have just ONE working ASW frigate available for ops next year.
They need 13
They have 5
2 could be ruled “unseaworthy” in months as per @NavyLookout
That leaves 3, all over 24 yrs old
1 on ops
1 in work up
1 in maintenance
thesun.co.uk/news/40806181/n…
MtarfaLee retweeted
This is a refreshingly novel, almost heretical, approach to defence policy where the author thinks first about what needs defending before dreaming up battle formations.
I'm very pleased to share my @Prosperity_Inst paper, ‘Reclaiming the Waves’ in which I argue that the @DefenceHQ should adopt a credible naval-centred strategy to defend & advance UK national interests & deter adversary aggression from the maritime domain.
prosperity.com/media-publica…
MtarfaLee retweeted
Why were Jonathan Powell, Peter Mandelson and Lord Hermer appointed without vetting?
The answer is that Chagos was a deal Starmer couldn't refuse to make.
Here's a timeline of the key stages of the Chagos treachery.
In 1982, after it became known that the Chagos seabed may contain vast mineral wealth, Mauritius set up a select committee to examine the matter.
However, sea-mining technology was in its infancy, and it was too expensive to be commercially viable at that time.
In 2003, as underwater mining technologies advanced and the value of minerals and rare earth elements soared, mining the Chagos seabed became an exciting possibility again; Mauritius appointed the eminent international barrister Sir Ian Brownlie as advisor for the Chagos Archipelago.
A former member of the Communist Party of Great Britain, Brownlie was a good friend of Sir Satcam Boolell, a former Labour deputy prime minister of Mauritius, and High Commissioner in London.
In 2009, Brownlie led the first Mauritius delegation to the Foreign Office in London seeking a Chagos deal.
Among the delegation was Sir Satcam Boolell's son Satyajit, who became Mauritius Director of Public Prosecutions the same year.
In 2010, after Brownlie died in a motor accident in Egypt, Sir Keir Starmer’s “great mate”, Philippe Sands, a leading human-rights lawyer who has publicly boasted of humiliating the UK in international courts, took over as counsel to Mauritius for Chagos.
In 2013, Satyajit Boolell invited Keir Starmer, whom he had become friendly with during Starmer's time as the UK's DPP, to a legal conference at the 5-star Balaclava resort in Mauritius.
During the trip, Starmer discussed the future of the Chagos Archipelago with then Mauritius prime minister Navin Ramgoolam.
After Starmer’s 2013 visit, Ramgoolam wrote that he and Starmer were aligned over Chagos.
In 2015, Ramgoolam was arrested on money-laundering charges when large sums of cash in foreign currencies, suitcases full of brand-new luxury watches, and blank British visas were found in his home.
Also in 2015, Starmer was elected to the British Parliament.
In 2019, Philippe Sands, after a campaign of lobbying the UN, obtained an International Court of Justice ruling (advisory opinion only, and non-binding) that the Chagos islands should be given to Mauritius.
Sands used the ICJ ruling as leverage in the following years in his efforts to persuade the Conservative government to give Chagos to Mauritius.
In 2020, Starmer became leader of the Labour Party.
In 2021, Sands received Mauritius' top honour, The Most Distinguished Order of the Star and Key of the Indian Ocean.
In 2022, Sands made an unauthorized entry into the Chagos Archipelago for a flag-raising ceremony. Sands tweets at the time, “It’s morning on Chagos, where the flag of Mauritius flies."
In 2023, Sands became a Mauritius citizen, but retains his British and French citizenships.
🧧In November 2023, David Cameron replaced James Cleverly as Foreign Secretary and, with the support of other senior Tories, stopped a Chagos deal saying, it’s not in the national interest, as reported in Hansard.
In July 2024, Starmer became UK Prime Minister and just ten weeks after entering Downing Street, he agreed a deal with Mauritius, despite there having been no mention of Chagos during the election campaign, and the Labour manifesto pledging to protect the BOT.
in November of 2024, Ramgoolam was elected Mauritius prime minister again after a snap general election, and took over from the incumbent PM, Pravind Jugnauth, to lead the Chagos negotiations with the UK.
In December 2024, after 14 years in the role, Philippe Sands steps down as Mauritius counsel for Chagos.
In January 2025, Attorney General Lord Hermer recused himself from signing off on the Chagos deal, and declined to say why.
In February 2025, Jugnauth was arrested on money-laundering charges after large sums of cash in foreign currencies and suitcases full of brand-new luxury watches were found in his home.
In May 2025, twelve years after discussing the future of Chagos in Mauritius, Starmer and Ramgoolam sat down in London to sign the treaty that transfers the archipelago's sovereignty to Mauritius.
The Fall Out.
The Chagos deal does🟥NOT secure the joint UK/US military base on Diego Garcia.
The deal operationally hobbles the base, and increases the dangers to the British and American military personnel, and the civilians who work there, and in the wider Central Indian Ocean region.
Diego Garcia's remoteness made it easy to defend in the past. This deal leaves the base horribly vulnerable to the growing threats posed by the new longer-range missiles, and more sophisticated and lethal drones.
When Keir Starmer, Lord Hermer and Vijay Rangarajan, the Director General at the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, made the deal it was fully understood that the outer islands of the Chagos Archipelago were by far the best locations to deploy early warning, and air-defense systems, to protect the main base from missile and drone attacks.
Yet they still decided to lease only Diego Garcia.
Andy Burnham, Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband, and Defense Minister Wes Streeting, know the deal increases the dangers to the lives of British service personnel, and our NATO allies personnel, in the strategically important Central Indian Ocean region.
To double down and push the deal with that knowledge is a shameful act of betrayal.
While the deal leaves Diego Garcia vulnerable to attack, it also renders the base itself ineffective and operationally hobbled.
Mauritius is a signatory of the Pelindaba African Weapon-Free Zone Treaty which bans all nuclear weapons from treaty members' territory.
Pelindaba gives each of the more the 40 countries who have signed it the right to inspect the facilities on Diego Garcia if they suspect nuclear arms are being stored there.
The UK's nuclear-armed Trident submarines will no longer be able to enter Chagos waters, or visit Diego Garcia which is the only island in the region which has suitable anchorage and facilities for maintenance and restocking provisions, etc.
The US's nuclear-armed submarines, ships, and planes will also be banned from Diego Garcia and the Chagos Archipelago's waters.
Mauritius gets complete sovereignty over everything, including control of the airspace above the Chagos Archipelago, which at 250,000 square miles is the same size as France.
The implications of controlling such a vast area of airspace in a strategically vital region are huge.
Mauritius has shown it will ban planes entering its current airspace when China asks.
The Chagos Deal does not ‘secure the base’. It methodically destroys every element required for operations. The text and annexes state it will:
❌Constrain future Ops and use of the base
❌Prevent the placing of sensors and other maritime installations
❌Require us to sight our foes on defence planning
❌Mean we’re unable to use our preferred contractors
❌See us lose of control over electromagnetic spectrum.
Understanding the Last Year of Use (LYOU) – Why Cryptographic Keys Have a Life, and Why It Matters for the UK
Views my own, corrections and comments welcome.
All information publicly available
Introduction – The Bottom Line Up Front
1/25 In cryptographic terms, the Last Year of Use (LYOU) is the final calendar year a specific device, algorithm, or associated key material may be used under normal authorisation. Set primarily by the NSA (often in collaboration with partners) and reflected in UK policy via NCSC/GCHQ processes, it marks a hard cutoff. After LYOU, keys are terminated. Continued use needs formal extension (e.g., Key Extension Request) and is exceptional.
For a UK audience: this is not abstract US bureaucracy. It affects MoD platforms, government networks, and sovereign Crypt-Key systems managed through the UK Key Production Authority (UKKPA) under NCSC (part of GCHQ).
Using material past LYOU is like stepping off a cliff edge—security does not fade gradually; the assessed protection for the intelligence life of the data collapses.
Looking Ahead – Preparing for the Next Cliff Edges
24/25 PQC migration, continued growth in classical computing, and evolving threat models mean further transitions are inevitable. Organisations that maintain accurate cryptographic inventories, follow NCSC timelines, and invest in modern key-management infrastructure will navigate them with less disruption.
Those that treat LYOU or equivalent cutoffs as optional face abrupt loss of protection (who could I mean?)
Conclusion – Respect the Life of the Key
25/25 LYOU translates the finite mathematical and operational life of cryptographic systems into an enforceable, auditable boundary.
For UK readers, it sits alongside NCSC Crypt-Key governance, UKKPA operations, and the Joint Crypt-Key Programme. Observing it (and the equivalent national processes) preserves the intelligence value of protected information. Ignoring it risks the abrupt, cliff-edge loss of that protection.
Plan early. Modernise deliberately. Treat keys as having lives—because they do and don’t complain if the NTA tells you “we did warn you” and “no we are not accepting liability for the risk you now carry”
defence-and-security.com/ana…








