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NEW: William Contreras is the favorite to win World Series MVP, via Kalshi: 36% — William Contreras 18% — Aaron Ashby 16% — Jackson Chourio 5.4% — Sal Frelick 3.6% — Junior Caminero 3.5% — Jacob Misiorowski 3.2% — Jonathan Aranda 2.9% — Jake Bauers 2.1% — Freddy Peralta

“Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are Padres for life. We never think about trading them. They are the founders of the Padres.” - AJ Preller (Via @mikedeportes)

GAMEDAY: The Brewers have a 64% chance on Kalshi to win the World Series over the Rays. Make your pick now — who will be World Champs?

No house, but I have a home @Kalshi

NEW: There is over a 50% chance that Jarren Duran is moved this offseason, via Kalshi. $100 on Duran to be on the Red Sox by Opening Day pays out $205.45. What team would be the best fit for the Red Sox OF?

Hit a hole-in-one. Free mattresses if the team wins. You went to an insurance company that specialized in calculating the odds. That was probably until 2006. Then it moved to Las Vegas, where ticket brokers holding inventory for one team would bet against that team to hedge. Then, by 2018, it moved to online sportsbooks. Now it's happening on prediction markets. An LA-based restaurant group put $60,000 on Kalshi before the NLCS that the Dodgers would lose to the Brewers. Why? They calculated that a Dodgers World Series run would bring in an extra $120,000. No run, $0. So they hedged. Guaranteed $60,000 either way. The Dodgers lost. The $60,000 grossed $120,000. Why an exchange and not a sportsbook? At a sportsbook, your price is locked. The only way out is a cash-out, and that number is set by the book's algorithm. On an exchange, there's thousands of competing buyers on the other side. The price moves. It's a reflection of the market, and you can take it or leave it at any point. The speculators who believed the Dodgers would win provided the liquidity the sportsbook never did. Marketplaces like Kalshi are giving businesses the exchange that prize indemnity and sportsbooks never could. Because the other side is real.

World Series MVP Rankings, via Kalshi: 1. Jackson Chourio (14%) 2. Jacob Misiorowski (12%) 3. William Contreras (11%) 4. Brice Turang (9%) 5. Junior Caminero (7%) 6. Yandy Diaz (7%) 7. Jake Bauers (7%) 8. Jonathan Aranda (4%) 9. Christian Yelich (4%) 10. Drew Rasmussen (3%)

A Japanese fan made an English-language AI song about Yoshinobu Yamamoto and it’s INCREDIBLE 🔥 “LOSING ISN’T AN OPTION” The strays against Gerrit Cole and George Springer killed me 😭

NEW: The Brewers now have a 65.7% chance on Kalshi to win the World Series. Can the Guardians or Rays give them a run for their money?

Per source, the Padres are signing 20-year-old Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Nogami for $300K . At 6'3 & 190 pounds, Nogami's fastball ranged 93-96 mph (semi-hardball) w/ room to add velo. He also features a +splitter and multiple breaking balls ranging 79-84 mph.

NEW: Kalshi traders forecast under a 45% chance that more than 2,425 MLB games will be played in 2027. In a standard MLB season, there are 2,430 games. $100 pays out $239.90 on Kalshi if each team plays a full 162-game season.

Lightest crowd I’ve ever seen for a postseason game here, understandably so.

Tommy says the Yankees' top offseason priority should be getting Fernando Tatis Jr.: @tommylugauer

Shoki Oda is in contact with the Padres organization Electric talent 👀