My second set of notes from the Beaver Creek Mining Conference. Criteria to be listed in my write-ups: Big alpha upside potential with a strong risk-reward. Note: Do not invest in gold/silver mining stocks if you are risk-averse. Investing in gold/silver mining stocks is for speculators who are willing to lose money. You don’t get big alpha without taking on high risk. Best of Show (Ranked) Heliostar Metals Discovery Silver Gogold Resources NexGold Mining Best of Show Runner-ups (Ranked) Aftermath Silver Silver Tiger Orezone Gold Sun Silver Write-ups Discovery Silver Huge Cordero silver project in Mexico. 1.2B oz at 60 gpt AGEQ (including lead, zinc, and gold). Focusing on 500M oz at 90 gpt AGEQ. No royalties. Feasibility released in 2024. $600M capex to produce 33M oz AGEQ for 19 years at $13 AISC. The after-tax IRR is 28% at $22 silver with a 2-year payback. The payback drops to 1 year at $30 silver. The first 3 years (26,000 tpd) will produce 23M oz AGEQ, then it jumps to 33M oz in year 4 at 50,000 tpd. They submitted their permit request in 2023 and expect to receive it in 2025. It’s a 2-year build. We could have a construction decision in 2025. Perhaps first pour in 2027. If we assume silver reaches $75 by 2027, they should generate free cash flow of around $1.5 billion per year (33M oz x $50). Using a 10x multiplier, that values the company at $15 billion. The management team is competent, with Tony Makuch as CEO. He was the CEO of Kirkland Lake (sold to Agnico Eagle) and ready to build the mine. They have 35% insiders, with management and founders owning 10% of the shares and Eric Sprott with 23%. I don’t think they will sell early and want to take this to production. GSR rating: 4/3/B+. Top 25. Favorites List. Added comments: As long as you are not nervous about them obtaining an open pit permit in Mexico, are willing to wait until 2027 for first pour, and believe in higher silver prices, then this is perhaps the best silver development play. Silver Tiger EL Tigre deposit (70,000 acres). Both open pit (gold) and underground (silver). Northern Mexico (Sonora). In a good unpopulated area. Royalty free. Phase 1: Open pit. Mostly gold revenue, but also a lot of silver. PEA: $60M capex to produce 4.5M oz AGEQ at $11 AISC. $600M NPV at $33 silver. PFS: Due in Q4 2024 Permits due Q1 or Q2 2025. Construction 2025. 12-month build. Phase 2. Underground. 2025: PEA due in H1. 2025: Drill UG (add oz's). Underground exploration target of 50 to 75M oz at over 250 gpt AGEQ. Current deposit: 100M oz OP and 100M oz UG (at over 250 gpt AGEQ). Deposit target: 250M oz minimum. Insiders: Glenn Jesome (the CEO) said that insiders won't be outvoted in any hostile takeover attempt. Glenn wants a large return and is not likely to sell early (or ever). Let's do some math and estimate their future market cap at $100 silver producing 8M oz. 8M oz x ($100 - $25) = $600M FCF x 15 = $9B GSR rating: 4/3/B+. Top 25. Favorites List. Added comments: I'm not worried about them obtaining the open pit permit, but perhaps I am too optimistic. There is some uncertainty with open pit permits being granted in 2025. Sun Silver Recently acquired the Maverick Springs project in Nevada. Strategy: Take the project to production. 2024/2025 Drill. 2025 Begin permitting/development activities. 2024 drill program. 25 holes (7500M). Assays from first 3 holes. All were mineralized. 120 meter step out hole: 88M at 79 gpt AGEQ (61 gpt AG) 7000 G-M). It ended in mineralization. Original resource estimate: 175M oz AG at 45 gpt, and 290M oz AGEQ (including gold) at 70 gpt. Remodeled estimate: 250M oz AG at 40 gpt, and 423M AGEQ (including gold) at 67 gpt. They found 1% Antimony over 1.3K in the pit. This could be used and offset to lower costs. They think the deposit is to going to grow significantly in size. It has a 7.4% NSR that needs to be reduced. It will take a few years to advance. Metallurgy looks good with a preliminary 85% recovery rate. Insiders own 50% and are not likely to sell. GSR rating: 4/3/B+. Top 25. Favorites List. Note: Currently only trades in Australia. They currently have no plans to support OTCQB in the US (I implored them to reconsider). Added comments: The new resource model they are using could be flawed. Plus, this is a development project, which tend to break my heart. But if you want an appealing speculation bet, this one looks good. Heliostar Metals In 2023, they were drilling their 400,000 oz high-grade (14 gpt) gold Unga project (60,000 acres) in Alaska. Then they acquired the Ana Paula project (135,000 acres) in Mexico (for $10M). Ana Paula The resource is 1.5M oz, with 1.1M oz (at 4.5 gpt) for the underground mine. The underground mine is permitted. They should have a construction decision in Q4 2025. Phase 1 of the underground is 50K oz and phase 2 is 100K oz production. Then in 2024, they acquired Argonaut's Mexico assets for $5M (a steal). This increases their resources to 4.5M oz and makes them a producer at around 25K oz. They plan to mine the Creston deposit at La Colorada in 2025 to increase production to 50K oz. Then, build Ana Paula in 2026. Plus, they can mine leach pads to add more production. They should produce 40K to 50K oz in 2025 at $1500 AISC. They have a path to 200K oz of production in 2027, and 300K oz in 2028. Their goal is to produce 250K to 300K 3-4 years at an $1300 AISC. Long term goal of 500K oz production. They also have the San Antonio mine with 2M oz, if it can be permitted. It's amazing how much potential they have. 30% strong insiders. Excellent CEO with a vision of building a large mid-tier producer. Let's do some math and estimate their future market cap at $3000 gold producing 300K oz. 300K oz x ($3000 - $1800) = $360M FCF x 15 = $5.4B GSR rating: 4/3/B+. Top 25. Favorites List. Added comments: There aren't many gold development stories with this much upside potential. If you are a speculator and not risk-averse, then this one is very juicy. Orezone Gold Bombore property (33,000 acres) in Burkina Faso (West Africa) 5M oz at .9 gpt. Very shallow (Avg reserve is 40M deep). It has never been drilled deep below 400M. 14 kilometers of strike for exploration. 10M oz target (including 200M below the reserve, which will be easy to mine). 2024 production: 100K production at $1350 AISC. 2025: Expanding production to 170K in Q4. Insiders (50%): Mgt 5%, RCF 15% (longterm), Equinox 10%, Local Group (19.9%). Trading a 2x FCF. And that is at 100K oz production! Insanely cheap. 1.5 hrs from Capital. Requires security, but they feel safe. Investors seem to be ignoring it because of the location. GSR rating: 4/3/B+. Top 25. Favorites List. Added comments: If you don't mind investing in Burkina Faso, this stock is crazy cheap.