Next Edge Capital

My follow up chat about #biotech stocks with the inimitable @JonErlichman and @CarolineLesley on their delightful TickerTake program. We cover my views on $ACOG $CLPT $CYTK $LEGN $NKTR $TGTX & $MRNA His Next 6 Biotech Stocks youtu.be/QovTCW-LHOg?si=MNzz… via @YouTube & @NextEdgeCapital

#biotech indicator extremes match or eclipse dire readings at prior lows. 1) % of Bios > 50 DMA sunk to single digits. Each 5 prior times readings achieved this threshold since the meltdown -66% low in May/June 2022, rallies of +13%, +29%, +10%, +25% & +20% ensued for the $IBB 2) % of Bios above their 200-DMA matched the extreme of said May/june major Low that held for 14 months 3) With a mind boggling 421 new 1-yr lows in Healthcare/Biotech, the % of Top 250 bios within 5% of a 1-yr Low at 60%, again equaled the crash low of May 2022. Can you imagine how much worse it is among the microcap bios? $XLV $XBI

The $XBI has corrected -12% over the past month but the tape has been weaker for a broad list of #biotech. The % of Bios within 5% of a 52-week high has collapsed from 25% to 7% while the % above their 50-day moving average has been cut in half from 80% to under 40%. In a new bull market you are not looking for the deeply oversold readings registered during the bear market, but for 50% to 70% retracements before upleg resumes. Prior tweets have quantified the impact of rising rates on biotech. $IBB

#Biotech nearing quant barometric extremes. 1) Real time % of top 250 Bios above 50-day moving avg (MA) down to 25%. 15% sets up Buy. 2) % within 5% of 52-week high down to 3% Buy level. 3) % > 200-d MA down to 25% Buy level. Maybe $XBI @ $75 is good risk/reward. $IBB

Delighted to be talking #biotech bear, how indicators line up & investment process with @BobbyKKraft at @PlanetMicroCap. 39 min $IBB $XBI @NextEdgeCapital youtu.be/Aiyudek17iY – at Toronto, Ontario

Every major #biotech bear market since industry inception with the frenzied IPOs of Genentech & Cetus in 1980/81. At -27% each 1998 & 2011 didn't make the cut. Even worse about this bear is that it wasn't preceded by +300% to +1000% bull markets like the 3 worst bears. $IBB $XBI

Notional amount of #bonds with negative yield has plunged from $18 trillion to under $3 trillion over past year. Talk about being taken to the woodshed. Well at least they can commiserate with #biotech investors. $TLT $IBB $XBI