Phoenix Housing 🏑 Insights (@NickPtak) header
Phoenix Housing 🏑 Insights (@NickPtak) profile picture

Phoenix, Scottsdale AZ Realtor -Compass Scottsdale, paradise Valley, north central , Arcadia , Biltmore, Tempe Gilbert 2nd homes, relocations 🏑 PHX native

Phoenix, AZ
Joined May 2023
Phoenix metro city by city annual average $/per ft and annual average $ per/ft last year with % change I don't like blended #'s like this as price per ft is based on several factors; lot location, overall sq footage of the house, pool or not etc but this is a good starting pt
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15,350
Phx neighborhood spotlight Marion estates 40th st north of camelback /stanford (and north) East to 44th st 10-20k sq ft lots A mix of old ranches with new modern builds. Can we do less white black modern boxes? Plz Some other nicer more design forward new builds as well
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Lake levels should like this, replenishing underground aquifers. What a great Halloween
Estimate about 4-6 months of rain heading towards Arizona today & tomorrow…πŸ«ͺ
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Great follow and insights on the higher end Short term rental market There is still a healthy appetite on the renting side and strong performance on the owner/operator investor side running these in Scottsdale assuming it's something like the picture below.
Replying to @paulswaney3
Trust me, I'm the first guy to be pumped if there's an actual fire sale of Airbnbs (there's not) We have 72 of them under contract with investors right now. There's no huge dump of Airbnbs on the market. Anything that is a strong "A-level" property is getting 2-7 offers because what you see on Zillow is a bunch of hot garage properties. Much of what you see is average product that someone unsophisticated person bought during the peak (2022 or 2023). Think boring 3 bedroom home. Think older style cabin in a mountain market filled with newly built modern homes. Outdated beach cottages with no design. (See Photo) - These properties are not on fire-sale or being dumped in masses
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Bike with me in 75Β° weather down Exeter Boulevard in Arcadia proper What was once Miles of citrus orchards has become a playground for new money and also legacy family wealth Exeter has several $10 million plus sales putting it on par with Paradise Valley
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Horseback 🐴riding sighting Love to see some of the remnants of old Arcadia still there
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Also I know my bike needs lubricant and is squeaky I’ll get that fixed - makes for brutal background noise
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Roofers and HVAC techs licking their chops about to file insurance claims πŸ˜‚
WATCH: Monster cell dumping golf ball size hail right now in North Phoenix. Severe thunderstorm warning expires at 4:30 p.m. and could bring 2.5" hail and 60 mile per hour winds. Live coverage starts at 4P! @FOX10Phoenix
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Syndicates raising $ for spec builds in AZ with 25-30% IRR promises to outside LP's feels very late cycle similar to the last of the raising capital for value add multi fam in 2022-2023 That being said the spec market is still humming in PV/Scottsdale/Arcadia/north scottsdale
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Just be careful if investing in that, be very diligent about the builders track record. You need A+ location, interior design, floorplan, landscape all of it in the 5-6m+ range in late 2026 going into 2027, you could get away with less mid cycle years ago w cheaper rates
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Gilbert neighborhood spotlight Waterston new build community Val Vista and Ocotillo 1 and 2 story options, neighborhood amenities, community parks, green spaces, large pool, playground biking paths Prices 600k-1m+ Square ft: 2500-4500 3-5 bedrooms A rated schools
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Video of the community amenities
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Phoenix, neighborhood Spotlight 🏑 7th avenue-10th avenue Northern south to Kaler Landerwood/north vista neighborhood 1/3+ acre lots , mature trees , winding shade, covered streets , big front yard, hangouts, neighborhood block parties Ideal Americana πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 900k-1.7m price
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969
Bidwill will not sell for a long time; he cash flows the team; it's his main source of income and family asset He's a plague on the state of Arizona but man do I wish he would so the Cardinals could get a new owner and thrive #bidwillout
Here’s the deal. We raised $3985, rounding up to $4,000. @SharkeyAZ is going match our donation to make it $8,000 in advertising. Digital billboards should be out today / tomorrow. Scott has 12 digital billboards across the valley. I’ll get the locations asap.
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he's going to have to be forced out by the NFL, NFLPA. can't imagine Bidwill broke ground on that new, state of the art scottsdale practice facility and sunk all that $ out of wanting to be a premier franchise. the existing cardinals facility is worse than ASU's facilities
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It’s officially patio season , outdoor cocktails , good food & weather Adobe grill at the Biltmore hotel, happy hour daily 3-6 Kid friendly One of the only prickly pear margaritas in town that doesn’t taste like pure sugar either - more tart We’re all the way back πŸ»πŸΉβ˜€οΈ
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Rainy cloudy day in north scottsdale Rain in the desert is a special treat - enjoy it Phoenicians The smell of the creosote bushes after rain is my personal favorite
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If you see the right location, right lot size, ugly duckling house, several price drops, maybe a floor plan weakness or two , owner has owned it forever with a lot of equity, on the market Shoot your shot, make the offer, be aggressive. Worst they can say is no.
Pending home sales in the US have moved down to their lowest level since April 2020, a month where much of US economy was shut down. The housing market is essentially frozen.
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Happy last 100Β° day and hot weather to all who celebrate in Phoenix Still gonna be warm at times during the day but the worst is behind us until early mid May Let’s go πŸ™πŸΊ
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Opendoor offering 4.99 rates on 5/6 year ARM loans (adjustable rate) trying to compete with builders using their economies of scale with Warehouse lines of credit from institutional lenders Smart move by them to move inventory Not endorsing OD’s homes -often lipstick flips
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The distress in the market is the 2023-present day buyers with sub 5% equity - have to sell due to job loss/can't get rehired, moving out of state for job relocation, after selling fees /closing costs etc some have to pay to get out of the house Still small % of total market
Pay attention to this. It will become the story soon. Many ARMs were signed in 2022-2023. The 5 year ARMs are retting at a time when no one can absorb a major increase in cost.
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1,696
Data per latest Cromford report phoenix housing data in October 2026 for context 2008-2010 GFC levels were 6x this roughly , sometimes 8x this in Phoenix
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sub 4% fixed 30 year mortgages with borrowers not having to sell, jobs still in tact, able to pay mortgage. overall inflation hurting a lot of people unless you're wealthy, but the lock in effect of the cheap 30 year mortgages+ boomers w paid off homes holding stagflation strong
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