Jeffrey Basara

💧 Wondering why it's been really rainy where you are? April 2024 was the moistest April on record for the planet, continuing a run of record-moist months that dates back to last year. 62% of Earth had above normal moisture content during the month, which is being strongly influenced by warming seas and the remnant effect of El Niño, whereby the jet stream transports warmth and moisture out of the tropics and toward the poles. These global drivers contribute to regional and localized extremes, like those experienced in Dubai, southern Brazil, China, and Europe during April. This is not being driven by Tongan volcanic eruption: the anomalies shown here are indicative of tropospheric patterns where the vast majority of the atmosphere's water is located and not the stratosphere where the volcanic moisture anomalies were most pronounced. Localized to regional dry patches can and do still exist, forced by other oscillations and modes, but recently they have been more the exception rather than the rule. Western Australia, southern Chile, the Philippines, British Columbia, Florida, and parts of the Caribbean were dry zones during April. In my opinion, this moistening trend is just as important as the warming trend as it relates to the potential increase in flood frequency and/or intensity into the future.

❗️ About 40% of the Atlantic Main Development Region (for hurricanes) is currently warmer in late April than it typically is in July... This is why forecasters are keeping such a close eye on hurricane season this year: the seas are off-the-charts warm where the strongest hurricanes typically form.

Global precipitation patterns will be strongly influenced by the peak of El Niño in the months ahead. For some countries, dryness & drought (🟤) will be a concern while others have a risk for extreme precipitation (🟢). The eastern U.S. looks to have frequent coastal storms 👀