Investor. World-curious. Change & progress. Ambitious, in pursuit of freedom. Libertarian. Sharing my investment journey transparently - Not Financial Advice

Joined April 2018
🧵 Thread and summary of the accounts I've followed that presented or discussed/mentioned the thesis of a final grand top in the 2030s, followed by a lost decade, instead of the common narratives of: 🔻 "AI is already the biggest Bubble ever" / "the biggest crash" / "a recession worse than 1929" happening soon, not years from now 🔻 the grand finale top happening around 2028 or before the 2030s The accounts are listed below, and in the replies you'll find several of their charts and posts for reference. 🔹@ChifoiCristian 🔹@RESMcycles 🔹@CryptoCycleGod 🔹@TheCyclesTrader 🔹@SethCL now posting on @GroupFinom You can bookmark this thread, as it is meant to be a reference post we can easily come back to in the future, instead of searching for posts individually in the X information chaos. I might keep adding charts and posts in the replies as they are published in the future. You can also share it if you want to raise awareness of this thesis and the accounts above, some of which deserve many more followers, in my view. And if this thesis eventually plays out, I want this thread to serve as a record of who was discussing it years in advance. Credit where credit is due!
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1.8M followers. “Bitcoin will never break its all-time high again.” And you can be sure there will be zero accountability if he turns out to be wrong, despite speaking with absolute certainty and presenting his prediction as a guaranteed outcome. My advice to beginners, which I keep repeating: Large audience ≠ expertise ≠ always being right ≠ guaranteed outcomes. Avoid accounts that present this kind of predictions as certainties like the plague.
A brutal year for Bitcoin is just getting started. Give me three minutes to explain why you should dump it now. Outflows from ETFs are signal and will continue. We will test the 57k low again in the next 12 months. Why? Because there are far too many dynamic places to put your money that are creating MUCH more value. Why put your resources into a dead network that offers nothing beyond a store of value? What's the point of place the BTC be if Bitcoin's Ponzi-scheme nature has gone away!?! The viral nature of bitcoin was it's power... if you didn't own you were MOCKED! Now? Completely reasonable, heck, SMARTER, to ignore bitcoin and place other bets! No one is trying to convince people to buy Bitcoin anymore... the memes and NFTs are gone. No one is saying $ BTC can change the world, because it won't — and BECAUSE AI HAS! Just sell and shift from Bitcoin to Super Intelligence because one provides little to no value, and the other provides unlimited upside for humanity. This should be obvious to everyone right now. Bitcoin will never break its all-time high again.
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Reminder
Fear sells, big time. Again, this is not about being wrong, I am often. I just cannot warn people enough, especially beginners, not to fall into the “very big account = authority = certainty” trap. How many times Robert has publicly called for an imminent crash over the last four years is honestly beyond me. The problem is that with such a large audience, so much confidence and fame, and the use of words like “prophecy,” his message inevitably carries a strong authority effect for many people. I would not be surprised if it paralysed many from acting or investing over the past four years, and therefore made them miss out on opportunities. A real crash will come one day, and eventually he will be correct. Nothing goes up in a straight line forever. As I shared several times, our thesis, which can be wrong, is for a major correction later in 2029 and a bigger crash in the mid 2030s. Markets are probably more nuanced than repeatedly warning people that an imminent crash is just around the corner, as the last four years have already shown. Then again, fear sells. It attracts attention, builds audiences, drives subscriptions, book sales etc.
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bitcoin:native Bitcoin, remember this chart ? Looking at the aggregated funding rates, we have not seen market euphoria since December 2024. This is a Bitcoin chart, but you can also look back at what your favorite altcoins were doing in December 2024. Maybe that was the last time they really gave you goosebumps, right?
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The context for the ABC labels xitter.cf/OVmarkets/status/21102…
#Bitcoin potential EW count for the corrective move
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$Others chart below, December 2024 basically being the head of the H&S pattern. xitter.cf/OVmarkets/status/21142…
Reminder also on the $Others chart and its failed Head & Shoulders pattern that is promising for Altcoins. ----- "A failed Head and Shoulders pattern occurs when the price breaks through the neckline (signaling a reversal) but quickly reverses and moves back past the pattern's boundary, turning into a powerful continuation of the original trend." -----
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Indeed! Tesla loves these rectangle patterns.
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$ETH Yes as spotted by JN below, Ethereum is in a large rectangle sideways pattern since 2021.
$ETH but from 2021 to 2026. 🍿🎥
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$BTC Bitcoin, no update is the update. Have a good day !
bitcoin:native Bitcoin, nothing much new happening, some very LTF observations on the 4h, bullish divergence still being built.
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OV Markets retweeted
Bitcoin Transition Daily Cycles Bitcoin has been exhibiting a daily cycle that is on average 70 days long for at least a year and a half. The legacy bitcoin daily cycle is ~60 days and one of the main daily cycle lengths in the Risk Rhythm is ~80 days. So this is the average of those two cycle lengths, further enforcing the idea that Bitcoin is undergoing a transition to align with the Risk Rhythm of the S&P 500. If this is to hold, we should expect a daily cycle low right about now. Otherwise, we might have seen a daily cycle failure, and the best case scenario would be waiting until a mid-cycle low in mid-November for the next impulsive move. $BTC $IBIT
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OV Markets retweeted
#DailyBBbands Look at that prolonged squeeze of the daily BB bands we have been in. It´s starting to look like the pre-pump phase back in August and the smaller squeeze back in September. The bigger the squeeze, the larger the...yep, that. Keep cooking.
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Some data
First of many seasonal tailwinds for the S&P 500 begins tomorrow! The 8 trading day period, from 5 days before to 3 days after midterm elections, is incredibly bullish. Since 1950, $SPX has gained in 18 of 19 instances, with a median return of +2.7%.
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$XRP still holding the rectangle pattern, the 200w & the 200d (wicks but no close below)
ripple:native bought some here at $1.26 We are the bottom of the pattern, low volume sell off.
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OV Markets retweeted
Well it's even worse than just a personal data leak. We cannot continue to expect mass retail and the average person to self custody with this kind of issues popping up right and left. xitter.cf/KeystoneWallet/status/…
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Just my personal view on the recent DeFi events. But the KelpDAO rsETH incident and its current impact on AAVE and more broadly on DeFi are just reinforcing my perception that my risks of having some funds onchain now outweigh my advantages, and I will therefore continue moving it offchain. The sovereign aspect to transact freely in a paperless way, the DeFi yield available, and the ability to take loans onchain against my assets (knowing that Lombard loans will probably be widely available in the near future against BTC/ETH ETFs) are currently not enough to justify me & my family bearing the risks of: - Wrench attacks and kidnapping - Protocol hacks or exploits - Various online hacks, bugs, and phishing - Seeds mismanagement - Inheritance planning complexities for my heirs Of course things can evolve for the better and future reassessment will be done.
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Well it's even worse than just a personal data leak. We cannot continue to expect mass retail and the average person to self custody with this kind of issues popping up right and left. xitter.cf/KeystoneWallet/status/…
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OV Markets retweeted
Don't fall for the comparison between the Gold/Silver June/July bottom (now making new lows) and the Bitcoin June bottom, suggesting that Bitcoin could now follow Gold and Silver and make new lows too. There are several important differences that make this comparison no longer reasonable or convincing to me. To name a few: 🔸 Bitcoin's bottom was formed with a weekly RSI bullish divergence. This did not happen for Gold and Silver. 🔸 Bitcoin made a Higher High (HH) in both price and RSI, while Gold and Silver made Lower Highs (LH) in both price and RSI. 🔸 Bitcoin's weekly Supertrend flipped green and bullish, while Gold and Silver remained red and bearish. Of course, I would never tell you it's a 100% guarantee that Bitcoin won't make new lows. But these are different technical structures. Bitcoin now shows a bullish structure, whereas Gold and Silver have maintained their bearish structures. So I don't think we can simply compare them and expect the same outcome. Just my view.
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OV Markets retweeted
$NBIS Chart and position update 🔹Average $163.30 🔹uP&L ~-6.5%
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OV Markets retweeted
New buy order just filled for $NBIS at $149.68
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OV Markets retweeted
And if you're too lazy to watch the full video, here is one chart I'll take out of it, offering another perspective supporting the points I've been trying to discuss with people calling for the bubble to crash and the economy to enter its worst recession ever. Corporate profit trends are clearly very different from what we saw leading into 2000 and 2008. This chart doesn't support the thesis of an imminent massive bubble crash or a recession arriving in the next few months. Maybe share this one and try to ask, politely and genuinely, for the point of view of people calling for a massive crash coming imminently. Always interesting to hear other points of view.
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Don't fall for the comparison between the Gold/Silver June/July bottom (now making new lows) and the Bitcoin June bottom, suggesting that Bitcoin could now follow Gold and Silver and make new lows too. There are several important differences that make this comparison no longer reasonable or convincing to me. To name a few: 🔸 Bitcoin's bottom was formed with a weekly RSI bullish divergence. This did not happen for Gold and Silver. 🔸 Bitcoin made a Higher High (HH) in both price and RSI, while Gold and Silver made Lower Highs (LH) in both price and RSI. 🔸 Bitcoin's weekly Supertrend flipped green and bullish, while Gold and Silver remained red and bearish. Of course, I would never tell you it's a 100% guarantee that Bitcoin won't make new lows. But these are different technical structures. Bitcoin now shows a bullish structure, whereas Gold and Silver have maintained their bearish structures. So I don't think we can simply compare them and expect the same outcome. Just my view.
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$NBIS Chart and position update 🔹Average $163.30 🔹uP&L ~-6.5%
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Position also transparently updated on the website 🔗 ovmarkets.co/portfolio
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