Helping bond investors find what's rich or cheap, and why. Macro, rates & MBS today. Munis, ABS & corporates next.
San Francisco Bay Area
Joined September 2026
- Tweets89
- Following90
- Followers61
- Likes247
Pinned Tweet
We're live!
Today, I'm excited to bring @OasiveAI out of stealth and announce that we're backed by @ycombinator!
Oasive helps bond investors find better bonds to buy.
Uncover opportunities you might otherwise miss, compare investments and test the risks before putting on a trade.
Which Treasury maturities look cheap? Is there a curve trade worth putting on? Macro and Rates Research helps you explore both. In mortgage-backed securities (MBS), compare pools and see how changes in rates and prepayments affect your portfolio.
Our AI analysts bring the research and proprietary models together, so you can go from idea to decision in minutes.
Thank you to @kul and @garrytan for taking a chance on me and believing in @OasiveAI!
Start your Macro and Rates Research free trial or request an MBS demo: oasive.ai/join
Here's what you can do 👇
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
The long end got some relief yesterday. The 30y yield fell 4.7 bp to 5.425%, about 2σ more than @OasiveAI’s cross-asset model would expect given moves in the rest of the curve and equities.
The 2y rose 2 bp, flattening the curve.
At 10y, the rally came entirely from real yields. The TIPS yield fell 3 bp to 2.77%, while market inflation expectations were unchanged, with the breakeven holding at 2.35%. The 10y SOFR swap rate was unchanged too, so Treasuries outperformed swaps.
The concern seems to be weaker growth, while inflation expectations haven’t budged.
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
Stocks had a better day outside tech yesterday: Dow +1%, Russell 2000 +1.7% while Nasdaq flat. Earnings and cheaper oil helped, even as housing data weakened.
Long bonds rallied too, but the 2y yield still rose. A Fed pause next week is likely with a hike priced in at the Dec meeting.
From @OasiveAI's daily market update
Oasive can break down anything for research!
September housing starts had a big miss, with both single- and multi-family construction falling. I asked @OasiveAI to break down the print:
> single-family starts -4.6% m/m, a 1y low, and permits -4% m/m (lowest since March 2023), a worrying signal for future construction
> multi-family starts (5+ units) -7.2% m/m, lowest since May
> regionally: total starts in the South are up +11% y/y, whereas the West (-25%) and Northeast (-31%) are the weakest
Fewer homes are being started, and completions are already down 14% y/y. Less new supply could help support prices, but only if buyers are still there. It also points to less spending on homebuilding.
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
September housing starts had a big miss, with both single- and multi-family construction falling. I asked @OasiveAI to break down the print:
> single-family starts -4.6% m/m, a 1y low, and permits -4% m/m (lowest since March 2023), a worrying signal for future construction
> multi-family starts (5+ units) -7.2% m/m, lowest since May
> regionally: total starts in the South are up +11% y/y, whereas the West (-25%) and Northeast (-31%) are the weakest
Fewer homes are being started, and completions are already down 14% y/y. Less new supply could help support prices, but only if buyers are still there. It also points to less spending on homebuilding.
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
@OasiveAI’s daily market update for yesterday:
> Chips led a narrow relief rally: Nasdaq +1.11%, S&P 500 +0.41%, while the Dow slipped.
> Treasuries gave back about a quarter of last week’s rally. The 10y rose 3.8 bp to 5.136%, with breakevens flat. Real yields drove the move.
> The Fed is in blackout, with a hold priced for Oct 28.
> This morning’s sharp housing-starts miss has the 10y back below 5.10%.
🔥
You can now ask @OasiveAI questions about your MBS portfolio in natural language, rank your holdings by specific characteristics, and build portfolios through the same chat.
Here’s a quick demo of me using it to identify the pools with the most extension risk and see their P&L alongside the risk analysis 👇
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
You can now ask @OasiveAI questions about your MBS portfolio in natural language, rank your holdings by specific characteristics, and build portfolios through the same chat.
Here’s a quick demo of me using it to identify the pools with the most extension risk and see their P&L alongside the risk analysis 👇
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
Builder sentiment hit a 14y low... and more builders are cutting prices as buyer traffic falls.
@OasiveAI’s breakdown of October’s NAHB data shows > 43% of builders cutting prices, up from 38%
> 65% offering incentives
> confidence fell to 29, lowest since June 2012
> buyer traffic down 5 points to 18
The outlook is getting worse too: sales expectations fell to 32 from 54 just a year ago.
Mortgage rates rose from 6.65% in August to 7.40% so even even listing prices are lower, buyers still have to pay the monthly payment
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
Bonds were a useful hedge to stocks this past week. A reliable hedge though? Still too soon to say.
Stock-bond correlation is still +0.34 over 60 days, almost identical to its 1y norm of +0.33 (they still tend to move together)
Last week’s biggest surprises vs the @OasiveAI cross-asset performance model:
> Oil: 10 ppts stronger than expected
> Rate vol: 10 points higher than expected
> Nasdaq: 0.9 ppt weaker than expected
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
What happened last week in the market?
AI debt fears hit tech. Oil kept climbing. A rough week for markets!
> Nasdaq -4.5% (worst drop since June), S&P 500 -2%, VIX hit 20
> WTI oil +8% on middle east tensions
> Treasury yields fell: 10y -15bp, 30y -16bp and HY spreads widened +20bp
> Energy pushed inflation higher. Markets still pricing 85% chance of a Fed hike by December with no pushback from Warsh before the blackout
Get your market update in your mailbox daily with @OasiveAI!
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
US manufacturing had a pretty modest month in September despite the headline beat.
Digging more into the breakdown with @OasiveAI:
> utilities jumped 3.5%
> manufacturing rose 0.3% (matching expectations)
> motor vehicles and parts fell 3.0%, their 3rd consecutive monthly decline
Outside autos, factory output grew 0.5% so there’s some encouraging growth here! But the jump in utilities helped lift the headline, while car production kept falling.
Encouraging growth, with some clear weak spots.
High-tech production is booming. The rest of manufacturing is growing much more slowly though.
September industrial production rose 0.7% m/m, beating the 0.4% consensus in Friday’s release. Looking deeper with @OasiveAI, the growth split is interesting:
> selected high-tech industries: +17.5% y/y
> semiconductors and related components: +19.9%
> manufacturing excl. high tech: just +0.7%
Meanwhile, industry was using 77% of its capacity, below the 79% long-run average.
Chip production is booming, but the rest of manufacturing is barely growing. That’s why the high-tech numbers alone can give an overly strong impression of how US factories are doing.
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
High-tech production is booming. The rest of manufacturing is growing much more slowly though.
September industrial production rose 0.7% m/m, beating the 0.4% consensus in Friday’s release. Looking deeper with @OasiveAI, the growth split is interesting:
> selected high-tech industries: +17.5% y/y
> semiconductors and related components: +19.9%
> manufacturing excl. high tech: just +0.7%
Meanwhile, industry was using 77% of its capacity, below the 79% long-run average.
Chip production is booming, but the rest of manufacturing is barely growing. That’s why the high-tech numbers alone can give an overly strong impression of how US factories are doing.
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
Last week’s auction stress was at the front-end, not the long-end.
The $22B 30y reopening cleared at 5.618% with a 2.54x bid-to-cover, and dealers took only 6.8% of competitive awards.
At Thursday’s $105B 8w bill sale, cover fell to 2.26x and dealers absorbed 47.4%. The difference suggests buyers were comfortable taking duration at 5.6%, while heavy front-end supply met much weaker non-dealer demand.
From @OasiveAI's Friday morning auction recap!
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
From Sep 17 to Oct 15, the 30y mortgage rate climbed 45 bp, from 6.95% to 7.40%. The 10y Treasury yield rose just 16 bp, from 4.94% to 5.10%.
The gap widened by 29 bp to 2.3 percentage points. For homebuyers, borrowing became more expensive than the Treasury move alone would suggest. Even if Treasury yields stabilize, higher mortgage rates could keep home sales slow.
For investors, that raises a different question: where are you getting paid enough for the risk?
That’s what I’m building @OasiveAI to help answer: comparing value across fixed-income markets so investors can make better-informed decisions.
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
@OasiveAI just released its Foreign Treasury Buyers report!
Foreign investors bought a net $109B of notes and bonds in August, the largest long-term inflow in 13 months, while running down $48B of bills.
Foreign governments & central banks sold $42B of bills but bought $18B of notes and bonds. Their share fell to a low of 40%. Japan and China’s reported Treasury holdings fell by a combined $225B over the 12m through August. But the mix is different: Japan’s retreat was concentrated in bills, while China sold a net $58B of longer duration bonds over that period.
The marginal foreign buyer is now private. September’s data (due Nov 18) will test whether that demand held up through a 54 bp rise in the 10y yield.
DM me if you want to see the full report!
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
The hot PPI print yesterday didn't increase the odds of Fed hikes. Actually the bond rally took some out.
In our @OasiveAI analysis today: October 28 hike odds fell from 34% to 25%, close to the 22% priced before CPI. The front end still carries a hike premium the long end is shedding: the 2Y fell half as much as the 10Y.
A hawkish Warsh or data signal before the October 27-28 meeting would hit the 2Y first. Another risk-off day helps duration more than the front end.
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
Treasuries rallied through a hot PPI. The 10Y fell 10.1bp to 5.09% and 2s10s flattened 4bp to 33bp, even though September producer prices rose 1.3% m/m. Demand for safety after an AI-led tech scare mattered more than the inflation print.
Equities rotated rather than sold off: the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, led by health care, materials and homebuilders, while tech and energy fell.
The dollar fell 0.5% and gold rose 1.6%. Rate volatility rose during the rally: the MOVE index gained 3.4 points when its usual relationship with rates and equities pointed to a drop.
From @OasiveAI's daily macro update delivered to your mailbox every morning!
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
I’ll be in Boston next week October 19–20 for the FT Future of Asset Management North America!
I’d love to meet others working in fixed income, especially agency MBS, munis, and rates.
If you’ll be there, let me know. Would be great to connect in person!
Check out Oasive for a breakdown of all macro data!
We just released our @OasiveAI retail sales report. here are the takeaways:
> Headline was +0.8% but gas-station sales jumped 6.4% and accounted for 71% of the monthly dollar increase. If we exclude gas, sales rose just 0.2%
> The components were mixed: restaurant and bar sales rose 1.1%, auto-dealer sales edged up 0.2%, and building-material sales fell 0.6%
> The control group, which excludes autos, gas, building materials and restaurants, grew just 0.1 % after 1.2% in August. And after a broad inflation adjustment, total retail sales barely increased
Consumers are still spending, but this looks more like a slowdown after a strong August than a fresh burst of demand.
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
We just released our @OasiveAI retail sales report. here are the takeaways:
> Headline was +0.8% but gas-station sales jumped 6.4% and accounted for 71% of the monthly dollar increase. If we exclude gas, sales rose just 0.2%
> The components were mixed: restaurant and bar sales rose 1.1%, auto-dealer sales edged up 0.2%, and building-material sales fell 0.6%
> The control group, which excludes autos, gas, building materials and restaurants, grew just 0.1 % after 1.2% in August. And after a broad inflation adjustment, total retail sales barely increased
Consumers are still spending, but this looks more like a slowdown after a strong August than a fresh burst of demand.