Algo Trading, Strat, Macro. Math PhD (Erdős 3). Hon Reader@UCL. Created MSc Algo Trading (‘17-now), & teaching online. Too much street-side experience to list.

London, UK
Joined April 2009
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Objectively Random retweeted
Now I have an excuse to post my favourite ever twitter exchange again
🧵 Toby Young’s Free Speech Union (FSU) is reeling from internal grievances involving allegations of racism, workplace discrimination, and sexually inappropriate remarks by senior members of staff. What? Surely not! I'm old enough to remember when In January 2018, Toby Young was appointed to the board of the new universities regulator, the Office for Students, and his old tweets, mostly from 2009, quickly resurfaced. He had tweeted “What happened to Winkleman’s breasts Put on some weight girlie”, asked “Do Padma’s breasts look bigger than normal?”, said a female MP had “quite a cleavage”, and joked of a woman pictured with him that he “had my dick up her arse”. He called lesbians “dykes” and George Michael “queer as a coot”. He deleted around 50,000 tweets, a petition against him passed 220,000 signatures, and on 9 January he resigned, saying his appointment had “become a distraction”. The just announced controversy claims that a key figure in the campaign group, the chief operating officer, Sigrun Olafsdottir, departed late last week after employees alleged that she told a junior member of staff she would “never hire a black person” as a part of a one-on-one meeting late last year. The organisation’s legislative affairs director, Sam Armstrong, who is also head of communications for the Reform MP Robert Jenrick, has meanwhile been accused of making staff members uncomfortable by discussing the American actor Sydney Sweeney’s “assets” in a meeting with more than a dozen staff. The claims cap a difficult period for the FSU, founded by the Conservative life peer Toby Young, and which critics see as a partisan rallying point for anti-woke grievance. And they may complicate how the organisation seeks to publicly present itself, as a nonpartisan group that seeks to defend “free speech” from the overreach of censorious authorities – one which often raises money from its 50,000 members to do so. In July, the Guardian reported that the US state department had allocated $5m to the international umbrella organisation that oversees the FSU, part of a larger effort by the Trump administration to promote rightwing causes in Europe. The state department appeared to withdraw this grant after the Guardian reported on the allocation. In August, the Guardian reported on questions about the organisation’s practices around charity crowdfunding, centred on an instance in which the FSU appeared to raise £60,000 for a legal case that was ultimately fought pro-bono. Much of the FSU’s work consists of raising money for people who it argues have faced inappropriate consequences for exercising their right to free speech. Lord Young told the Guardian that that case was “not handled on an exclusively pro bono basis”, saying there was another lawyer involved and the person whose case it was had separate legal costs. These revelations have come alongside a period of internal turmoil. Eight members of the FSU’s small staff have departed within the past year. The Guardian understands that a crucial part of this disquiet has been the allegation of racism against Olafsdottir. The Guardian has spoken to multiple sources about these allegations and viewed documentation related to parts of the claims. Employees complained that Olafsdottir was frequently “hostile” towards younger members of staff. This alleged hostility was said to occur during the FSU’s in-person gatherings. The staff of the FSU work remotely but meet regularly for in-person events. These often take place at pubs and hotels, with some personnel said to drink heavily late into the night. Employees of the FSU described blurred boundaries and instances of aggression and discriminatory behaviour on the part of some senior staff during these sessions. Olafsdottir and Armstrong declined to comment. Young told the Guardian he could not comment on “internal employment matters”. (Continued...) theguardian.com/uk-news/2026…
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Replying to @World_Insights1
Just ranking them is such a midwit take.
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Replying to @miniapeur
Susan Athey spoke about ML vs Econometrics. In ML they just want a good forecast. In Econometrics, they mostly care about significance and explanatory power. Similar take (but much later). In Stats there are so many more bridges over time.
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Objectively Random retweeted
I would like to draw attention to this excellent text by Leo Breiman, one of the inventors of random forests and the creator of bagging, titled “Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures”. In it, Breiman challenges the traditional statistical emphasis on specifying probabilistic models of data generation, advocating instead for a greater focus on predictive performance and algorithmic approaches. More than two decades later, his arguments remain remarkably relevant to the relationship between statistics and machine learning. Link: projecteuclid.org/journals/s…
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Objectively Random retweeted
Ruixiang Zhang told me about MathHelm, a non-profit site from mathematicians for mathematicians to discuss AI generated math papers. mathhelm.org/about
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Objectively Random retweeted
Happy Pythagorean Theorem Day! 10/24/26 10² + 24² = 26² This is the last one we’ll experience in our lifetime.
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Replying to @richards1052
Ar-Raḥmān (الرَّحْمَٰن) is not derived directly from Hebrew; rather, it is a cognate derived directly from the same Semitic root, retaining the conceptual bridge between the sheltering warmth of the womb and the highest expression of mercy.
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Objectively Random retweeted
Wow. Commercial banks have KYC obligations and are under law enforcement, but i guess you can bypass that by having access to an account at a central bank. This takes 'off the books' transactions to a whole other level.
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Objectively Random retweeted
This review of Federer's "Geometric Measure Theory" by someone who was struggling to understand it for years is pure gold. "It was only a couple of years ago, after writing a 1500 page book (now 2015 pages) on the foundations of differential geometry that I finally managed to get the gist of the first 8 pages." amazon.com/portal/customer-r…
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Objectively Random retweeted
some light weekend reading. h/t our friends @ObjRandom and @jnordvig
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Prabowo was the one who agreed to overflights. It was shelved when the backlash was too high. He has joined the “Board of peace”. Hard to say he is an indecent thinker being ex-military implicated in personally killing opposition under Suharto. He is not like Joko.
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Objectively Random retweeted
In 2018, The Washington Post ran a piece on where AIPAC came from. It's worth reading slowly. Oct. 1953: Israeli forces killed more than 60 civilians in the village of Qibya. Time reported it. The New York Times published U.N. findings refuting Israel's lies about it. Eisenhower froze U.S. aid. Dulles said so openly. An ordinary country faces consequences. This one (Israel) built a machine. 5 months later, the American Zionist Committee for Public Affairs (AZCPA 0was launched. It was later renamed AIPAC. The Post's own subhead says it "was formed to spin positive PR after Israeli atrocities." Not to question the atrocity. To manage the fallout. Then came the model: ... Build a "united front" and treat any dissent as betrayal. ... Operate on the premise that "there was nothing Israel might do that would jeopardize American Jewish support." ... Worse, the article says the more disturbing Israeli behavior got, "the more Israel needed their ardent advocacy." ... Since the late 1970s, steer campaign money toward chosen candidates, creating "a unity that politicians have had to respect." That last line is the whole story. Politicians learned that crossing this lobby has a price. So they stopped asking hard questions about where American tax dollars and American diplomatic cover go. That is leverage over American policy, built after a massacre, and sustained for 70 years. Notice the Post didn't say American Jews are a monolith. It said AIPAC works hard to create the perception of one, and punishes Jews who break from it. An American public that funds this deserves to know the origin story. The question isn't "why is this being said now?" It's "why did we stop saying it?"
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Objectively Random retweeted
AIPAC is now spending as much as $9 million against Abdul El-Sayed. AIPAC is why we’re at war in Iran. AIPAC is why the U.S. has supported genocide in Gaza. We must say NO to AIPAC. YES to electing Abdul as Michigan’s next U.S. Senator.
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Objectively Random retweeted
It is a weird weird year to be a formal methods expert. Some unorganized thoughts on the new @AnthropicAI and @theoremlabs post on formal verification (anthropic.com/research/forma…): - This is very cool. - The main innovation is verifying a later stage of the program. Normally provers take the source code, LLM it into a theorem language, and then prove that, which means you have to make assumptions about source semantics and compilation properties. It's very easy to make a mistake in translating and prove the wrong thing! What they instead do is compile the code into assembly, and then (if I understand this correctly), compile that assembly into a theorem language (which they call LPS). So as long as the compiler is faithful you can skip the whole divergence problem. - I'm glad they clarify that you still have to trust the translation process, the "hardware, OS, OCaml" compiler, the LPS model, and also assume that the program is single threaded with fixed memory. The single biggest source of errors in formally verified code is when the proof assumes something that isn't true in practice. It's really, really important to state your assumptions! - I'm not clear why they need to compile the fuzzer into the theorem. Is it to act as a description of valid inputs and workload? Maybe to embed assertions in as theorems? - Holy crap, 180 million lines of Rocq. Is that more Rocq than exists in the world already? I notice they say a 600,000 line proof corresponds to roughly 20k CPU instructions. That would be like, 1-2k lines of source code at most? Really goes to show how inefficient this approach is and how it only works because you can throw LLMs at the problem. - This, probably deliberately, doesn't address the single biggest gap in AI-based verification: AIs cannot come up with good properties. Doesn't matter if you're doing unit testing, property testing, formal verification. I always assumed this was a "frontier labs haven't trained for it yet" thing, but if Anthropic hasn't talked about that here, maybe they've tried and haven't been successful yet. That's interesting to me. Instead, they take a known universal property (this code doesn't crash or get flagged by UBsan) and prove that instead. Still very useful, but makes it harder to generalize to proving arbitrary things about arbitrary programs. - Anybody reading the official post should also read their expert review appendix (www-cdn.anthropic.com/files/…). It points out some interesting things, like the fact that most of the code the LLM wrote wasn't used in the proof (over one billion lines of Rocq), that they had to prove the equivalence between fuzzed and unfuzzed programs, and (this is most interesting), some experiments find that the LLM-method of proofwriting may not scale to more complex things. - Also read the description of LPS (github.com/theorem-labs/oss-…) to understand the limitations of the assembly -> Rocq compilation. In particular, it does not handle concurrency at all (which is one of the main use cases for formal methods!) or OS signals. Also it can't prove things about program arguments with slash characters, meaning they can prove stuff about `rm foo` but not `rm foo/bar`. - The official skill (github.com/theorem-labs/oss-…) doesn't tell us much about the nature of FM and AI. Probably too much for me to hope of any skill. - Some of the article's specific caveats and throat clearings make me think someone at Anthropic reads my stuff ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
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Objectively Random retweeted
increasingly concerned that ai is revealing the mathematical world as negatively curved. instead of everyone wandering about in idea-space and clustering around the same famous conjectures (local positive curvature), ai is pushing out the boundaries rapidly and revealing that the space of mathematical ideas is ~hyperbolic (negative curvature). though this means there's lots left to discover, it also means that small separations between people/agents will lead to wandering alone. we may be emerging into an idea-space where there's so much to see and do but everyone is alone in a private heaven, unable to share their subtle joys with others...
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