The dead cat continues to bounce.
What is Bitcoin, 17 years later?
It’s not great for transactions or smart contracts; the user experience is still intimidating for most, and it’s no longer capturing the public’s imagination.
If it comes up at the dinner party, it's followed by a hearty “remember that!”
It’s a boring store of value, trusted as that—which is its biggest value.
It's boring.
Folks expect bitcoin to be stable and that it’s no longer a way to get rich quick.
Institutions embracing and accumulating it took $btc from punk rock to Muzak.
Advocates went from pirates to suits in orange ties, awkwardly sharing cringe memes — just like the cool kids do!
If Bitcoin were going to reach mass adoption and an important use case, it does better than anyone else, it would have by now.
Bitcoin feels like the CD in the age of Spotify, the DVD in the age of Netflix — a bridge technology that folks who invested in “their collection” keep saying is the better experience.
Perhaps bitcoin is vinyl, cool memories and fun to drag out and put on display, but a technology that served us to get to where we are now.
Novacula Occami retweeted
I’m $9.4 billion underwater on my Bitcoin. My stock crashed 80% so far. I lied about never selling my Bitcoin, which I’ve been doing, and booking losses, since June. My software is so terrible. My quarter was a disaster. You know what I’ll do? I’ll sing about it. Genius strategy.
Novacula Occami retweeted
Randomness Is the Foundation
Cryptography is hard. Implementing it securely is harder. And the part almost nobody thinks about, generating high quality randomness, is where the whole thing lives or dies.
This week's Coldcard incident made that visible in the most expensive way possible.
What broke. Every private key you own derives from one number: the seed. If that number is predictable, everything derived from it is too. Coldcard's firmware was supposed to draw that seed from a dedicated hardware RNG. It didn't. A guard checked whether a config macro was defined, not whether it was enabled, so the build silently fell back to a software generator seeded from the chip's serial number and timer, values an attacker can reconstruct. Older devices were effectively deterministic; current ones were capped near 32 bits, about four billion possibilities. A seed space advertised as 128 bits collapsed to something you can enumerate. Researchers estimate more than 1,000 BTC drained from roughly 1,200 wallets, from a flaw sitting in public code since March 2021. The device never had to be touched.
A bad RNG is silent. The output still looks random and passes casual inspection. You discover the problem when someone else does, on-chain, at 21:56 on a Thursday. That is why randomness cannot be a software convenience with a fallback path. It has to be engineered, measured, and certified as a first-class security function.
How we do it at Ledger. We build on certified Secure Elements specifically to access the best cryptographic primitives, including a True hardware RNG. The TRNG is physics, not a formula: it leverages chaotic physical phenomena on silicon to produce genuine entropy, so there is no seed to guess. The Secure Element embeds hardware detectors that watch for malfunctions and manipulation, environmental sensors, active shielding, glitch and voltage detection. Extreme temperature, for instance, can degrade a noise source, so the hardware is built to catch that rather than quietly ship weak entropy. And raw entropy is never used directly: this low-throughput source is fed into cryptographic post-processing inside Ledger OS. Physics for the entropy, cryptography to condition it.
The certifications, and what they mean. Claims are cheap. Certifications are third parties trying to break your claims. Our TRNG is evaluated under AIS-31 and certified PTG.2. AIS-31 is the German BSI methodology, used inside the Common Criteria scheme, that defines how to evaluate a true physical RNG, including a stochastic model of the noise source, not just tests on the output. The Secure Element carries Common Criteria certification at EAL5+ / EAL6+. And Ledger devices are certified under CSPN, ANSSI's first-level scheme, with random number generation quality explicitly in scope. The exact failure that hit Coldcard, "generating a biased or deterministic random number," is written down as Threat #1 in our published security targets, and the TRNG is the security function that answers it.
On closed source, honestly. This part of Ledger OS is closed source. Access to this Secure Element technology comes with a hard vendor requirement that the low-level implementation stays closed. We love open source, but between the highest level of certified security and open source philosophy for this specific layer, we chose security, and I still think that was the right call.
Closed source does not mean unaudited: our code goes through regular evaluation by multiple independent vendors and earns certification on a recurring basis. Security shall not rely on obscurity, that principle stands.
But it is also true that closed source raises the cost of vulnerability research for an attacker. Both are true at once. A flaw sitting in public code for five years until an adversary reportedly used AI to find it is a reminder that "open" and "reviewed" are not the same word.
That AI angle is not a footnote. Internally we make heavy use of LLMs to hunt for vulnerabilities in our own products, and it is genuinely effective (Read the excellent blogpost on the matter: donjon.ledger.com/blog/ai-se…). The adversary is already doing this at machine speed. So do we, before they do. More on our approach soon.
None of this makes us immune. It makes us measurable, monitored, and certified against exactly the class of failure that just played out. Cryptographic guarantees beat social trust, always. A seed you cannot predict beats a promise that it was random.
Stay safe.
Novacula Occami retweeted
What’s @howardlutnick doing there? 🤔
Novacula Occami retweeted
I’m still stuck back on this, regarding $MSTR, which I wrote last week. I removed the paywall for a few days.
“Like most of Strategy’s earnings and investor calls, this one was part revival meeting, part traveling medicine show, and part Advertising/Marketing 101 – pulled directly from the ‘tell them what you want them to hear and think’ school of salesmanship.
"(Think Mad Men’s Don Draper turning Kodak’s drab-sounding slide projector 'wheel' into a ‘Carousel’ of memories).”
Enjoy! herbgreenberg.com/p/michael-…
Novacula Occami retweeted

*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaoneFeb 11
EuropeConnected via Europe App StoreAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
BLOCKFILLS HALTS WITHDRAWALS AMID CRYPTO TURMOIL
Susquehanna-backed crypto lender BlockFills has suspended client deposits and withdrawals, citing recent market volatility. The Chicago-based firm, which serves 2,000 institutional clients and handled $60 bn in 2025 trading, remains open for select trading but is limiting liquidity.
The move echoes past crypto downturns, including the 2022 collapse of FTX and other lenders. Bitcoin’s recent drop below $65,000—down ~45% from October highs—has intensified pressures, while stalled U.S. crypto legislation continues to weigh on the market.
Novacula Occami retweeted
Here's the crazy thing about BTC since Trump has taken office i.e. over the last 14 months.
Saylor has bought 2% of all BTC supply and campaigned harder than anyone possibly could do looking for marginal buyers / "greater fools" to push it higher.
He's engaged in financial alchemy, non stop relentless gaslighting of the public via every media channel possible, heavy handedly left giant execution footprints (some would call it intentional price manipulation) forcing it up, he's gotten hundreds of copycat companies to cookie cutter the "treasury strategy," he's tried to convince governments globally to buy it at all time highs, even campaigned in person at the White House directly to the President to amend regs and buy it as a government balance sheet "strategic" investment..,
... and whats the Price Action?
BTC is flat since the 2024 election result AND down 30%+ since Trumps inauguration day.
In trying to build a greater fool strategy, Saylor himself has ironically become the greater fool. There is no marginal buyer. HE WAS the marginal buyer, that took it from 60K to 120K, and now he's underwater, with capital markets likely shutting him out (no ammo) and left holding the bag with nowhere to turn for a bailout.
... and remember all this has happened with the backdrop of a rate cutting cycle. The most accomodative monetary policy environment possible you could hope for as a BTC holder.
Meanwhile millions of Retail Trader Wojacks globally are on their knees praying for a miracle for it to go up.
This is a modern day comical nihilist disaster / tragedy.
What a mess! 🤣
Novacula Occami retweeted
The $MSTR CEO, who along with Michael Saylor , tried to convince investors to capitalize their mark-to-market Bitcoin gains last spring, is now telling investors to ignore the “GAAP” mark-to-market losses! #Shameless @PowerLunch
Novacula Occami retweeted
Me showing Michael Saylor that he can buy $BTC for $75,000 on Coinbase instead of $87,000 at a grocery store ATM $MSTR
Strategy has acquired 855 BTC for ~$75.3 million at ~$87,974 per bitcoin. As of 2/1/2026, we hodl 713,502 $BTC acquired for ~$54.26 billion at ~$76,052 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC strategy.com/press/strategy-…
Novacula Occami retweeted
Wow @saylor got absolutely cooked in the Epstein emails.
justice.gov/epstein/files/Da…
Novacula Occami retweeted
Replying to @orangeyield
Saylor's north star seems to be: accumulate as much Bitcoin as humanly possible, however possible.
This is why he has:
• effortlessly pivoted every quarter on what the product de jour is (e.g. CBs to STRK to STRC),
• changed the marketing pitch ("accretive dilution" to "torque" to "digital credit"),
• flip-flopped on mNav (2.5 → 1),
• not been bothered by STRF and STRD losing value or having to pay 200bps more for STRC than at IPO, and
• signing up for double-digit obligations forever.
To him, the end justifies the means.
Why does he think this way?
As you note, part of it is certainly legacy.
He also seems like a man possessed with a singular vision. He's come back from the brink twice when everyone had written him off, which must give him confidence. And of course, his net worth of > 5B gives him a nice safety net even if things go south and everything drops 90%.
Just sucks for shareholders because they are pawns in this game he is playing. For every one that gets queened, up to seven others may not make it.
🎯 Bros getting it.
Historically when a stock like $MSTR issues new shares, MSCI adjusts the weighting up across its indexes quarterly
This is core to keep Saylor’s ponzi running, creating infinite passive buying to absorb his infinite dilution.
MSCI just stopped playing.
THIS IS WHY $BTC IS NOT PUMPING HARD AFTER MSCI NEWS 🚨
MSCI has announced not to remove Bitcoin and crypto treasury companies from its indexes.
But they have added a new rule.
When treasury companies issue new shares, MSCI will not add those extra shares to its indexes.
Earlier, when Strategy and other treasury companies used to issue new shares, big index funds had to buy some of those new shares.
Now, those funds won't need to buy the new shares anymore.
This means the automatic buying demand has now gone, and it'll be less attractive to issue new shares.
The result of this will be less money raised through share dilution, and this is why markets are not going bonkers.
Novacula Occami retweeted
MSCI has decided not to boot "DATCOs" like $MSTR from their indexes for now. [1]
Two important considerations:
1⃣ While they decide what to do with them, they are effectively "capping" or "freezing" the weight of these companies in their indexes. [2]
Even if these companies grow larger or make more shares available to the public, MSCI will ignore those changes for now. This prevents these companies from becoming a bigger part of the index (and thus forcing index funds to buy more of their stock) while MSCI decides whether they should be in the index at all.
Not considering any new growth limits the risk for index investors in case MSCI later decides to remove these companies entirely.
Of course, it also chokes off passive investing flows into BTCTCs because ETFs do not have to buy the new shares that they otherwise would have had to, as the index weight stays flat.
2⃣ In my view, what MSCI is saying is, "We agree these companies look like investment funds (which we usually ban), but we don't have a strict enough mathematical rule to ban them fairly yet. We are freezing them while we write that rule." [3]
The phrase "characteristics similar to investment funds" is key here. Institutional investors generally separate their portfolios into specific buckets. If a software company like MSTR (technically an "operating company") puts 90% of its money into Bitcoin, it effectively becomes a crypto fund. Yet, if it is in the "Tech" index, it forces a pension fund to buy crypto when they only intended to buy software stocks.
Understandably, major investors are complaining that DATCOs are breaking portfolio models. They are effectively "Trojan Horses" - getting into indexes as operating companies but acting like asset managers.
MSCI does provide hints on how it plans to solve this. The mention of "financial-statement-based or other indicators" is a clear signal that new quantitative hurdles are coming.
It could consider "Revenue vs. Assets". E.g. If a company holds $10 billion in Bitcoin but only makes $50 million in software revenue, MSCI might classify them as an investment fund (ineligible) rather than an operating company (eligible). Or it could consider "Income Source". E.g. Does the profit come from selling a product or from the appreciation of the assets on the balance sheet?
They do note that this affects a "wider group of entities," not just crypto companies. Thus, MSCI is admitting that their definition of an "operating company" is outdated. In the modern economy, where companies can hoard intellectual property, data, or digital tokens, the line between "operating" and "investing" is blurry.
All in all, it does seem like they are preparing to tighten the definitions globally, and will likely bucket BTCTCs/DATCOs along with other investment funds masquerading as operating companies.
[1] app2.msci.com/webapp/index_a…
[2] "MSCI will not implement increases to the Number of Shares (NOS), Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF) or Domestic Inclusion Factor (DIF) for these securities."
[3] "Feedback from the consultation confirmed institutional investor concern that some DATCOs exhibit characteristics similar to investment funds, which are not eligible for inclusion in the MSCI Indexes. Feedback also highlighted that DATCOs may represent a subset of a wider group of entities whose business activities are predominantly investment-oriented rather than operational.
Distinguishing between investment companies and other companies that hold non-operating assets, such as digital assets, as part of their core operations rather than for investment purposes requires further research and consultation with market participants. For instance, assessing index eligibility across a range of these types of entities may require additional inclusion assessment criteria, such as financial-statement-based or other indicators."
MSCI confirmed Digital Asset Treasury Companies will remain in MSCI Indexes for the Feb 2026 review. A strong outcome for neutral indexing and economic reality. Thank you to our investors and the $BTC community.
Novacula Occami retweeted
Replying to @jfhksar88 @Eric_BIGfund
Like I said, institutions have a low tolerance threshold for mediocre performance paired with high volatility.
Sorry, coiner, institutional investors aren’t in Bitcoin for the religious experience.
Novacula Occami retweeted
The worst part for me is he can’t just say “down 87%.” That’s not enough. Now even that is likely highly cherry picked (if true). But that’s not enough? The pathological need to lie and then watching the sycophant grifters line up to explain the lie is just breathtakingly painful.
Novacula Occami retweeted

































