Jace (Belly De La Cruz)

As a BBWAA member, I had a vote for NL Rookie of the Year. My ballot looked like this: Wetherholt Rumfield Benge McLean Stewart I didn't know before the results were unveiled last night how others voted. I didn't know I would actually be the lowest voter on Sal Stewart, the only person to place him 5th on their ballot. I've gotten some flak from disgruntled Reds fans about where I placed the eventual winner of the award. I wanted to outline some of my thought process. I had a Rookie of the Year vote once previously, when Corbin Carroll won it. Making out a ballot that year felt a lot more straightforward compared to this loaded list of worthy rookies. Wetherholt led all NL rookies in Wins Above Replacement and was one of the top 20 players in WAR in the NL, not just among rookies. He was the best defensive player in the sport aside from PCA. His defensive metrics seemed to back this up, though he didn't win the Gold Glove at 2B (and no, I didn't have a vote in that). In addition to the superlative defense, he remained an above league-average contributor offensively, particularly in his role. Wetherholt led NL rookies in runs scored, which seemed to me to be a similar valuation to the way Reds supporters view Stewart, who led rookies in RBIs. For a leadoff man, runs scored is the goal. For someone in Stewart's position in the lineup, the goal is driving in the runs. Both thrived at their objective. I, clearly, put weight into JJ's defensive value vs. where Sal didn't carry value on that side of the ball. Carson Benge was a blend of strong offensive numbers with plus defense in the outfield. Probably the most well-rounded rookie, but perhaps without any standout characteristic to push up to the top of the ballot. The order of the top three was a real challenge that I wrestled with. Benge drew the second-most 1st place votes and I can't argue with the logic behind those selections. Benge had 4.3 WAR, only narrowly behind Wetherholt (4.6), but admittedly ahead of Rumfield, who was only 2.6 per FanGraphs but 3.5 per Baseball Reference. But the more I looked into TJ Rumfield's season, the more I was impressed. Did you realize he led the National League in OBP this season? Not just among rookies -- he led the entire NL. Additionally, the Coors Field bump wasn't responsible for his standout offensive season. He had a better OBP on the road. His OPS was easily above every other name on my ballot. Nolan McLean came next on my ballot. I struggled figuring out exactly where to draw the lines and place the only pitcher on my ballot. His numbers were really strong, and it's an age-old question how to weigh position players against pitchers in this award race. Logan Henderson merited consideration, too, but with only five spots on the ballot, he fell victim to the workload conversation. He didn't reach 100 big-league innings, as he spent a stint in AAA during the season. Sal Stewart, of course, was worthy of the ballot. And truthfully, I wouldn't have had a huge issue with any of the five names I chose ultimately winning. Stewart's 30-100 season obviously won over enough of the voters for him to be selected as the winner. But of the five players on my ballot, he was lowest in WAR (2.0) by a considerable margin. He contributed power and RBIs that exceeded the other candidates, but ultimately, landed fifth on my ballot due to some of the rate stats and other underlying numbers that pushed other candidates above him, for me. At the end of the day, Sal Stewart is a deserving winner of the award and I enjoyed the process of putting together what ended up being an especially challenging ballot.

Bret Hart says pro wrestling is starting to become hokey because it doesn't feel real. "I know that I gave so much and tried so hard to make it appear real. I have a hard time today when it’s not, I don’t think those values are carried forward and they’re moving on in a different direction now where wrestling is starting to become hokey. It doesn’t try to be real anymore. It tries to be unreal, like too outrageously. The more explosions and pyro and stuff that you can do, it has nothing to do with wrestling. Like in the end, I’m a wrestling fan  deep in my heart. I like to watch a really good wrestling match that builds and tells a story and all that. I don’t get that fix anymore, I’m not getting that at all from today’s wrestling.” (The Johnny I Pro Show)

What TV show got canceled on a massive cliffhanger that still frustrates you to this day?

Sal Stewart’s 112 RBI weren’t just impressive. They were extraordinary. And a stat called RE24 explains exactly why. One of the most common criticisms of RBI as a statistic is that driving in runs is dependent on teammates. After all, a hitter can’t drive in runners who aren’t on base to begin with. Makes perfect sense. But Stewart drove in 112 runs for a Cincinnati Reds team that finished LAST in the National League in runs scored and last in all of baseball in batting average and OBP. So how do we separate a hitter’s actual offensive contribution from the opportunities his teammates provide? Enter RE24: Run Expectancy Based on the 24 Base-Out States. RE24 is one of baseball’s most useful advanced statistics for evaluating situational offensive production. Here’s how it works. There are eight possible baserunner configurations: bases empty, runner on first, runner on second, runner on third, first and second, first and third, second and third, and bases loaded. Each configuration can occur with zero, one, or two outs. 8 baserunner configurations × 3 out states = 24 possible situations. Using historical play-by-play data, statisticians calculate the average number of runs a team can expect to score from each of those 24 situations through the end of the inning. Every plate appearance changes that expectation. The formula is: RE24 = Runs Scored on the Play + Run Expectancy After − Run Expectancy Before Here’s a simplified example using illustrative run-expectancy values: A hitter comes to the plate with runners on first and second, nobody out. That situation has an expected run value of approximately 1.5 runs. He doubles, scoring both runners, and ends up on second with nobody out. The new situation has an expected value of approximately 1.1 runs. His RE24 contribution? 2 + 1.1 − 1.5 = +1.6 runs. He didn’t merely collect two RBI. He increased his team’s expected run production by 1.6 runs. Conversely, if he grounded into a double play, his RE24 would be substantially negative because he destroyed a valuable scoring opportunity. This calculation is performed for every plate appearance throughout the season, and the results are added together. Unlike RBI, RE24 accounts for the scoring opportunities a hitter actually receives and measures what he actually does with them. Now let’s look at the final 2026 numbers: SAL STEWART 112 RBI 32 HR 700 PA +19.85 RE24 CARSON BENGE 65 RBI 20 HR 654 PA +13.25 RE24 Stewart generated 49.8% more runs above situational expectation than Benge. And before someone points out that Stewart had more plate appearances, normalize both players to 600 PA: Stewart: +17.01 RE24/600 PA Benge: +12.16 RE24/600 PA Stewart still holds a roughly 40% advantage. Now, RE24 isn’t a perfect statistic. It doesn’t adjust for ballpark, and it doesn’t capture defensive value. It also rewards productive hitting with the bases empty, not just driving runners home. But that’s precisely why it’s useful here. We’re not simply comparing RBI totals. We’re measuring how effectively each hitter improved his team’s run-scoring outlook, accounting for the situations he inherited. And Stewart comes out comfortably ahead in that measurement. 112 RBI wasn’t merely a product of opportunity. Stewart’s +19.85 RE24 demonstrates that he consistently added value beyond the run expectancy of those opportunities. On the National League’s lowest-scoring offense. As a 22-year-old rookie. That’s not just an impressive traditional stat line. That’s an analytically defensible Rookie of the Year performance.

Carson Benge should have won NLROTY. But let’s stop shitting on Sal Stewart over it. Dude raked 30/100 as a rookie. Let’s not pretend that’s not good.

IS THAT NOT A FOUL!?

Call up the Reds right now and ask if they’d trade Sal for Benge one for one I guarantee you they say yes without thinking.

Carson Benge becomes the only the 2nd rookie in the past nearly 40 years to go 20-20 with 4.0 WAR and NOT win Rookie of the Year

Sal Stewart is a great player but Carson Benge was better is literally every statistical category This is egregiously horrible voting

Stewart is a deserving NL Rookie of the Year winner but Benge closed hard to finish 2nd. And considering how vastly he improved after rough start at the plate, in addition to his speed and defense, I'd bet on him having the best career of the candidates when all is said and done.

Can any Sal voter please explain their logic and reasoning

This is gonna be one of those awards you look at on baseball reference in 10 years and wonder how the writers got it wrong