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Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
Here are the top 20 markets for real estate investment in 2027, according to ULI's annual Emerging Trends Report just released this week. Quick thoughts on multifamily market in each:
DFW stays No. 1, not a surprise. Been steadier than other Sun Belt markets. Still supply to work through, but still attractive and very liquid.
San Francisco ranks No. 5, up 40 spots from last year, and would probably rank No. 1 if not for the fact that many survey respondents would probably never invest in San Francisco regardless how it is. Same for Manhattan, where policy risk questions dampen some enthusiasm and redirect capital elsewhere.
Interesting to see DC's Northern Virginia suburbs rank high, yet its Maryland suburbs rank dead last and the District is in the bottom 5. But that's the reality of the DMV, and its just governance issues-- with the District and Montgomery County competing for the crown of most conspiratorial anti-business market while Northern Virginia gladly benefits from it.
Austin and Boise both rank outside the top 20, but I'd be bet on both being in top 20 next year. ULI's list is supposed to be forward-looking, but this is example of how in reality it's still very much a present-day lens... just like San Francisco ranking No. 45 last year.
Knoxville ranks as highest tertiary market, coming in at No. 20 overall. Good market but surprised it's so high.
ULI's survey respondents put Norfolk and Milwaukee in the bottom 10, but I think they're just saying they don't know these markets. Both are very steady and interesting, low supply.
Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
Kudos to Aziz for using a more sophisticated methodology than the most of the rent vs own slop.
Buying a house is a wonderful thing but do it because you want it, not as your primary financial investment.
Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
How many young people in the South are having the exact same experience as this gentleman?
Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
The world is changing fast.
Apartment rents in Austin are rising again (barely) for the first time since early 2023.
Austin was the poster child for the apartment supply boom, pushing down rents for 41 straight months. But construction has rapidly tapered off, vacancies are gradually leasing up, and rents are starting to tick back upward.
Not a boom (yet?), but an inflection point.
Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
I asked Shlomo Chopp (@ShlomoChopp) how a borrower gets educated on their real estate loan documents during a deal.
In this clip, the carve-out language he says to ask for up front.
Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
Today I sit down with Shlomo Chopp, Founder of Case Equity Partners. His job is helping real estate owners get out of or restructure loans they can't pay.
Shlomo got into this after an attorney told him to read the CMBS loan documents, and he read them cover to cover. Today his clients range from owners with a couple million dollars of debt to an $800 million capital stack.
We get into what is actually in a modern loan document, and what a borrower should do before the lender starts looking.
We discuss:
• Why 2008 did not play out like the savings and loan crisis
• How a non-recourse loan turns into full recourse
• How a payment due on a holiday can lock up your cash
• How to study your loan documents before the next deal
• Why an underwater property is the borrower's biggest leverage
• Why he thinks the worst has already happened
• Where he would put $50 million today
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:03) Why the Savings and Loan Playbook Failed in 2008
(08:18) How Loan Documents Got Tougher After 2008
(16:12) Why You Should Model Every Clause in Your Loan Documents
(22:16) Which Lenders Hide Full Recourse in the Fine Print
(25:21) How to Learn and Negotiate Your Loan Documents
(32:18) What's Usually Gone Wrong by the Time a Borrower Calls
(39:54) A Borrower's Leverage in a Loan Workout
(44:09) Restructuring a Loan When You're Out of Cash
(49:36) The Game Theory of Negotiating With Your Lender
(53:14) A Good Operator Is Not the Same as a Good GP
(54:53) Why Office and Multifamily Are Seeing the Most Distress
(1:01:17) How Lenders' View of Office Has Shifted
(1:03:26) Why the Worst of the Distress Is Already Here
Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
🚨 BREAKING: Ken Griffin is donating $2 BILLION to launch a Carnegie Mellon University campus in Miami.. the largest individual gift to higher education in U.S. history.
The new 35-acre campus will be located in Wynwood and focus on computer science, AI, robotics, technology and innovation.
This is a MASSIVE win for Miami’s evolution into a global tech and innovation hub.
Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
The Mainframe Maintenance Window Is Collapsing: Frontier AI and the New Reality of Cyber Defense dy.si/dohF3t
Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
The Alliance for America’s Skilled Trades is growing. Fourteen new members join BlackRock, @Carhartt, @Ford and @Google to help expand pathways into skilled trades careers across the country.
The Alliance is also releasing its first national report, taking a closer look at the challenges and opportunities facing America’s skilled trades workforce. The report finds the U.S. will need to fill an estimated 1.7 million skilled trades openings each year through 2035, while training programs produce just 55 workers for every 100 needed. 1blk.co/46UsnYj
@ATT, Barton Malow, @blackstone, @CintasCorp, @DEWALTtough, Dycom, The @HersheyCompany, @ManpowerGroup, @Meta, @Microsoft, @MilwaukeeTool, @nvidia, @Verizon and @Waymo
Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
The University of Michigan’s monthly consumer sentiment survey shows that Americans today feel worse about the economy than they did during either the Covid-19 pandemic or the 2008 financial crisis. nbcnews.com/business/economy…
Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
The autopsy of Nolan Wells reveals that no water was found in the lungs, throat or stomach
Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
U.S. real estate investment has collapsed by 50% over the last four years.
The reason? It's now more profitable to sit on your couch and buy a 10-year government bond than to buy an investment property.
10-year yields are now 5.1%.
While the single-family cap rate for rentals is 4.8%.
For the first time in nearly two decades, buying real estate for cash flow has a negative opportunity cost v buying government bonds.
And as a result, the number of people buying investment properties has plummeted by 50% over the last four years.
This is having a massive price impact on certain markets. Track Cap Rates for your area at reventure.app/map.
Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
“Real-estate investor Ashcroft Capital borrowed against five apartment buildings in Georgia and Texas. Average rents during the first quarter were $1,423 per unit, far below the $1,953 projected…and income generated from the properties only covers 57% of the mortgage payment”
Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
The WSJ tackles the apartment debt topic... While it's taken longer than expected for distress to emerge, more is emerging, and it's particularly concentrated in certain types of assets -- value-add deals bought at the cycle's peak.
Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
Former OpenAI and Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon, who publicly resigned from Anthropic yesterday with a stark warning about AI safety, was interviewed by Anderson Cooper on his show this evening.
Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
There are currently 23 data centers inside Dallas City limits
There has been one noise complaint since January of 2025. It was investigated by code compliance and no action was taken
These facilities are valued at $1.5B on the tax rolls
Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
Hard to put into words how insane this supply truly is
The land area of Galveston is ~40 square miles and there are over 1500 properties listed for sale right now on that tiny land mass
There’s so many that the red Zillow bubbles overlap on top of each other multiple times
Oliver L. Sims III retweeted
A Yale study just concluded that Medicare for All will save an estimated 114,000 lives every year and reduce overall healthcare spending by $1 trillion.
Medicare for All saves lives, saves money, and covers everyone with every doctor being in network.
A new study shows that Medicare for All would save over 114,000 lives and over $1 trillion every year.
The new research out of Yale shows that reductions in administrative overhead, lower pharmaceutical prices, less fraudulent billing, and fewer emergency care trips would lead to massive savings nationwide.
More accessible care would also lead to numerous lives saved.
commondreams.org/news/medica…
