Founder, https://xitter.cf/t.co/N8AxkdoJ1z ₿itcoin & crypto data analysis Particle physics grad

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Joined May 2009
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Bitcoin’s Volatility Waves sits at 44 versus a 5-year average of 65. Low volatility isn’t safety. It’s stored energy waiting for a catalyst.
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Bitcoin is attracting $683M in daily capital inflows. Flows have stayed positive for 66 straight days, even as BTC fell 4.3%.
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Tom | On-Chain Mind retweeted
Strategy now owes 18,818 BTC a year in preferred dividends and interest. That is more Bitcoin than it bought in the entire 2022 bear market. In June, that bill nearly broke the flywheel. I built a brand new model to show exactly how close it came 👇🏼
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Strategy now owes 18,818 BTC a year in preferred dividends and interest. That is more Bitcoin than it bought in the entire 2022 bear market. In June, that bill nearly broke the flywheel. I built a brand new model to show exactly how close it came 👇🏼
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Bitcoin is closing in on the 6-12 month Realised Price at $86K, a level that helped kickstart the previous bull market.
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Almost nobody has ever been ruined by sitting on their hands through a quiet market. The accounts that get destroyed are the ones that couldn't stand the silence and went looking for something to do with it
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10 years ago, JPMorgan wouldn’t touch Bitcoin with a 10-foot pole. Now they’re predicting it could be the best-performing asset of the decade, with forecasts that still look heavily sandbagged. Eventually, they all learn.
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Only 22% of 2022 bottom buyers sold for more than a 2x gain, and just 11% held on for more than a 4x. Nailing the bottom clearly wasn't enough. I tracked the coins bought at every cycle low since 2011 to see who held, who sold, and why time decided the outcome👇🏼
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Institutional demand now accounts for 42% of this week’s Bitcoin capital flows. Spot ETFs contributed $68M this week, while organic demand still leads at $97M. TradFi wrappers are becoming a major driver of the market.
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Tom | On-Chain Mind retweeted
On average, half of all Bitcoin bought at cycle lows was sold within just 210 days. For 2022 bottom buyers, that meant selling around $26k, before the real rally had even started. Every cycle back to 2011 shows the same pattern, and it says a lot about how today's bottom buyers are likely to behave👇🏼
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On average, half of all Bitcoin bought at cycle lows was sold within just 210 days. For 2022 bottom buyers, that meant selling around $26k, before the real rally had even started. Every cycle back to 2011 shows the same pattern, and it says a lot about how today's bottom buyers are likely to behave👇🏼
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Bitcoin has now generated $1.75 trillion in cumulative gross realised profits. An extraordinary amount of wealth realised over Bitcoin’s lifetime.
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Bitcoin’s 50th-percentile MVRV price band sits at $90.7K. Even after the recovery, price remains below its historical median valuation. We haven’t even reclaimed the midpoint of Bitcoin’s long-term valuation range yet.
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68% of Bitcoin’s supply is now in profit. That still leaves almost 1 in 3 BTC underwater. The recovery has come a long way, but there’s still plenty of ground to reclaim.
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The average Bitcoin across the entire network is now 4.5 years old. This single metric compresses the entire supply’s age distribution into one number, regardless of whether coins have moved. A remarkable measure of how mature Bitcoin’s supply has become.
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Bitcoin continues to chop around its Active Realised Price at $85K. This is the average cost basis of economically active supply, making it a key battleground between holders sitting in profit and those underwater.
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Hash Ribbons used to be one of Bitcoin’s most reliable capitulation signals. But with miners increasingly pivoting towards AI this year, declining hashrate no longer tells quite the same story.
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What a difference a few months makes for Bitcoin. In July, everyone was asking how much lower we could go. Now, after a sharp breakout from the bear market lows, the question is whether this rally has legs. 10 subscriber questions answered in October's OCM Q&A, from options and Mt. Gox to the “Uptober” narrative 👇🏼 onchainmind.io/research/ocm-…
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At June’s low, only 2% of days in Bitcoin’s entire history had seen more long-term holders underwater. But apparently that wasn’t the cycle bottom.
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