OpenLP aggregates & amplifies insights across the venture ecosystem to demystify the LP perspective. Powered by LGT Capital Partners
Joined March 2016
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OpenLP retweeted
Another outstanding piece of analysis from @credistick 👇
If an LP wants to build a diversified venture portfolio, part of the job is then finding managers who bring a range of opportunities. In today’s concentrated market that can be tricky, as you can invest in five different funds and still end up with a lot of the same bets. Which is great if they all work out. Less great if they don’t.
Dan puts some data behind this. Across 5 megafunds’ seed portfolios, he saw an avg of ~87% of labelled investments were in AI. EMs covered more ground… Still a focus on AI (avg of 55% in one example), but more than twice as likely to back a wider ranges of businesses.
There's so much talk about how tough it is for EMs right now (and it is), and this data illustrates the important role they play inthe ecosystem. They’re willing to put the time (and 💸💸) into ideas that aren’t yet obvious to the rest of the market.
The average emerging manager backs more than twice as many outlier profiles than a megafund, per investment.
Pooling 5 EM portfolios increases the range of investments significantly, while the same is not true for the more homogenous megafunds.
At the earliest stages, venture capital is built on discovery; innovation relies on an appetite for companies outside of "legible" categories.
Megafunds' revealed preference is to dominate existing categories, rather than drive discovery. So, the market will continue to rely on small and emerging managers for discovery.
Thanks to @dealroomco for letting me loose on their data to test this hypothesis.
Full report available here:
research.joinodin.com/#/pape…
OpenLP retweeted
The best partner diligence often isn't a weekend offsite or a list of 50 questions. It's years of watching how someone thinks, operates & makes decisions.
So when @Nchirls asked me if Thomas Kristensen and I did the rite of passage "50 Qs" exercise before Sapphire joined forces with LGT Capital Partners, I could confidently say we didn't need to.
🎧New 9-min Origins minisode on team & philosophical alignment
OpenLP retweeted
A few weeks ago I asked @pavelprata whether the barbell effect we’re seeing today looked anything like 2021 based on the H1 2026 fundraising data he pulled. Yesterday, he delivered.
His framing of today's fundraising market as "concentration inside a contraction" is a succinct way to describe what many LPs are seeing. Fundraising isn't just slowing. Capital is concentrating among fewer managers as fewer funds successfully close.
There's still work to understand exactly where the pressure is greatest across mgr cohorts and vintages, but the below analysis is a thoughtful contribution.
Look fwd to more in his detailed Q2 2026 fundraising report dropping shortly 👀
murphcapital.substack.com/
when @Beezer232 asks – we cook data.
a few weeks ago we published data on VC fundraising in H1 2026, and @Beezer232 asked whether the barbell effect is real and similar to the 2021 ZIRP era.
we don't have fund-level 2021 data in our own tracker at @murphcapital (we only started tracking in Jan 2026), but @PitchBook's global fundraising series goes back to 2016, so I pulled it and looked at two metrics: average fund size (capital raised ÷ funds closed, per year) and fund count.
and although there's no breakdown by EM vs. middle vs. mega-platform, here's what I found:
> in 2021, the market closed 4,739 funds and raised $377.1B – average fund size $80M.
> in H1 2026 alone, the market closed 727 funds and raised $98.8B – average fund size $136M.
that's a 1.7x jump, but worth being careful about why, though: average fund size can rise for two different reasons, and aggregate data alone can't fully separate them:
1/ real concentration: the top tier is taking a bigger slice, and the middle/bottom are genuinely losing share.
2/ survivorship: weak or small managers simply stop closing funds at all (they disappear from the denominator), which mechanically pushes the average up even if relative tier shares hadn't moved.
one tell for which effect is doing more work: fund count fell to ~15% of 2021's level (annualized), while capital only fell to ~26%. If this were pure survivorship, count and capital would have fallen together.
that gap is the tell that the funds still standing are taking home more each, not just that small managers vanished.
so to answer directly: no, this isn't "similar dynamics to 2021." It's more squeezed now and I'd frame like "2021 was concentration inside a boom, when capital and fund count were both exploding together and 2026 is concentration inside a contraction".
if you want the full breakdown, we're publishing our detailed Q2 2026 fundraising report tomorrow on Substack: murphcapital.substack.com
OpenLP retweeted
Seed startups are in decline, according to data from @whoisnnamdi.
This seems like a natural consequence of the reduction in venture firms, shown in data from @Beezer232 earlier this year.
The venture market contraction has been particularly hard on emerging managers and small firms, who open the “risk aperture” for new startups.
So, fewer firms making initial investments means fewer companies making it to Seed.
This is expected behaviour when a large part of the market (by AUM) benefits from capital concentration. Fewer companies raising more money at higher prices means faster and more substantial markups.
It’s clearly unhealthy if you care about exits or the scope of innovation, but it’s fine if you just want to present good looking IRR.
OpenLP retweeted
1/ Venture investing is often framed as a strategy game, but it’s just as much an exercise in emotional calibration. And who you have behind you matters.
@nchirls & I unpack a new framing “cynical optimism” in the new Origins minisode.
My🔑Takeaway 👇
youtube.com/watch?v=B3RczQ9B…
OpenLP retweeted
Big question going around emerging managers these days - does my fund size still make sense?
Rounds got bigger. Which means leading = more $. And if leading entails follow-ons, that's another big slug of $.
Or you give on leading / ownership. But does that work in your model?
OpenLP retweeted
Raising a VC fund? Here is the MOST comprehensive LP questionnaire I've seen for fund diligence.
The Institutional Limited Partners Association (ILPA) Due Diligence Questionnaire 2.0 is the industry’s default checklist for how LPs evaluate fund managers.
The ILPA DDQ covers the following topics related to fund diligence:
1. Firm: General Information
2. Fund: General Information
3. Succession Planning / Key Persons
4. Investment Strategy
5. Co-Investments
6. GP-Led Secondaries / Continuation Funds
7. Credit Facilities
8. Investment Process
9. Team
10. Alignment of Interests
11. Market Environment
12. Fund Terms
13. Firm Governance / Risk / Compliance
14. Track Record
15. Accounting / Valuation
16. Reporting
17. Legal
18. Data Security / Technology /Third-Party(s)
19. ESG
20. Diversity, Equity and Inclusion
This is gold for any GP currently raising a fund or thinking about raising a fund!
Can't believe this is the first time I'm seeing it.
PDF: ilpa.org/wp-content/uploads/…
---
If you're an emerging manager looking for fund admin tooling that can make fundraising seamless and can scale with you, I partner with Verivend to help get funds formed.
Get a demo: lnkd.in/grrJxqxq
Repost to help emerging managers!
OpenLP retweeted
The most important companies that get built in a given year are rarely aligned to the trend that was "hottest." The deals that people were fighting for "access" to.
OpenLP retweeted
Having a hard time closing a fund? You're not alone.
2025 ranks as the most challenging of the last three years for early-stage GPs.
I conducted a short survey to understand how early-stage VC is faring, gathering data from 48 funds in total (primarily EMs, almost all <$250M).
Amongst the findings, there's a clear rebalancing of LP allocation, particularly for anchors and multi-stage firms, with an overall concentration of LP activity.
The commentary offered by GPs also highlighted a few themes, like "GP as a brand" and a growing appetite for co-investment opportunities — but no real consensus on shifts between small/large funds.
The breakdown: credistick.com/lp-2025/
Thanks to everyone who responded, and the willingness to share data that may be helpful to other GPs — a welcome example of positive-sum thinking.
OpenLP retweeted
How many investments do most VC funds make?
Most will end up below 25 investments, with a large percentage of that below 20.
But there is usually 10% or so of every cohort that goes big and invests into 50+ companies.
Choose your fighter.
OpenLP retweeted
As liquidity needs evolve & venture markets mature, secondaries are becoming a critical strategy for both GPs & LPs.
Join us on 9/30 @ 12 pm PT for Secondaries Decoded: What GPs and LPs Need to Know, a webinar co-hosted by @VCForward & @sydecario.
You’ll hear from:
- Prateek Alsi, General Partner, Co-Head Venture, Tribe Capital
- Chirag Chotalia, Managing Partner, Envoy Equity Partners
- Noor Chaudhry, Head of Community and Partnerships, @sydecario
-@natewcl, Partner, @SapphirePrtnrs
Register now 👉ventureforward.org/vf-events…
OpenLP retweeted
Heard from LPs this week:
Had over 100 LP convos this week. Five takeaways in the form of "Every LP I know ______..."
- uses AI at work, and most "wouldn't want to work without it." This was not the case a year ago -- they "get it now" which is driving a new level of velocity / wave of AI investing & interest in enterprise use cases
- is still actively investing in privates / VC. Though to be clear, liquidity would be VERY helpful
- has several Continuation Vehicles currently in process in their portfolio. "It used to be Sponsor to Sponsor exits, now its Sponsor to Continuation Vehicles"
- is thinking through the emerging dynamics of growth stage companies and how to adjust portfolios (private for longer, scaling faster in private markets in AI era)
- says they don't respond to cold emails (and they would probably appreciate that I'm letting my followers know to not bother)
- uses peer referrals or GP spinouts as their primary source of new relationships
OpenLP retweeted
As part of my ploy to use Uncapped as an excuse to learn about venture capital, this week my guest was an excellent LP, Dan Feder.
He's been managing director for the endowments of Princeton, WashU, and now Michigan. I had a great time listening to how he thinks about venture.
OpenLP retweeted
Following the interesting article from @packyM on the growth in value of the largest US VC-backed exits, we have done a deep dive into the Pitchbook data. We looked at exits >$10k from 2005 onwards and grouped into blocks of five years. Highlights below /1
OpenLP retweeted
Congrats to Liu Jiang + team at @seedtosunflower on the close of Fund II!
In a tough market for 1st time managers, Liu built something exceptional & we’re proud to be among Sunflower’s early LPs.
We’re excited to support Sunflower’s mission to back technical founders from day zero—with discipline, clarity, & conviction. Onwards & upwards 🌻
📖 Read more: wsj.com/articles/sunflower-c…
OpenLP retweeted
Snapshot of startup valuations, round sizes, and dilution in Q1 2025.
Seeing seed rounds hit $20M post-money as a MEDIAN is pretty wild. That's higher than any point in 2021.
Yes, this is driven by AI. and yes, there are many fewer rounds actually getting raised than 2021.
OpenLP retweeted
#VC fund managers: Our 13th Emerging Manager Office Hour (EMOH) program will take place virtually on Wednesday, May 28. Join us for networking and meetings with GPs and LPs. Learn more and apply by Wednesday, Apr. 9: ventureforward.org/vf-events…
OpenLP retweeted
More than 40% of LPs into venture funds under $100M are individual people, not institutions or family offices.
Major reason why the liquidity crunch in emerging venture is so tough - unlikely that many individuals can support new fund investments without recycled capital
OpenLP retweeted
Heard from VC LPs this week - all about endowments (a long post 👇🏻)
For so long, university endowments have been a backbone of VC funds (higher historically, today they represent ~15-20% of VC $ raised, most coming from the 30 largest). There is real stress on this channel that I believe will have real impact on VC $$ raised in coming years. Main issues:
1. Endowment Tax. Current legislative proposals could take the endowment excise tax from 1% to as high as 21%. (One endowment I spoke to this week is budgeting for 14% tax)
2. NIL / College Athletics. NIL has a big impact on giving dynamics and operating costs of endowments. Sports drive top line revenue which helps cover operating costs. If revenue is down, endowment has to cover more of the operating costs. To be competitive, Universities now need $ to pay players (CAC is up). So now donors are being driven to sports giving vs funding a general endowment which restricts the endowments ability to actually fund what it needs to fund. Lots to unpack here but NIL really changing whole endowment game. (Pun intended)
3. DOGE & DEI. Federal funding is being stripped from universities overnight. Endowments are the stop gap. Case study: a lab has a grant from the NIH to study a women’s health matter. Funding was just pulled overnight. University now must fund that research. One endowment I talked to had over 15 labs impacted. Not small $$.
4. No DPI. All of this stress is alleviated if cash is flowing back into your program from your investments. One university I spoke to this week has 2% of their entire endowment in a single VC backed company. Huge value created. Great returns. No cash.
Bottom line - all of this impacts endowments’ size of commitments, decisions to reup, and their ability to do more with you.
#knowyourcustomer