Elections, African Politics, Democracy and a general curiosity about how the world works, or doesn't. Unresponsive to anyone who follows more than is followed.
Johannesburg
Joined November 2011
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A prediction model that is tweaked with every incoming actual result will end up with 100 % accuracy - no surprise.
Back at the National Results Operations Centre (ROC) in Midrand, #TeamCSIR continues to monitor incoming results and refine our election prediction model for #LGE2026.
Working alongside the @SABCPortal, our team is turning data into insights to support election analysis as results continue to roll in.
ℹ️ elections.sabcnews.com
@dstigovza
Paul Graham retweeted
🗳️🇿🇦 #LGE2026
Interested parties wishing to object to voting or counting irregularities that could affect the 2026 Local Government Election results must submit written objections to [email protected] by Friday, 6 November 2026 at 17:00
elections.org.za/pw/Document…
On human relationships we can still be tolerant, but surely we can be less tolerant of social evils - public smoking is as good as banned, but gambling is actively encouraged.
Time all employers designed shifts across the three days of voting to ensure everyone has time to viote where they are registered.
National and provincial results in local elections are just an entertainment.
Our first CSIR election modelling predictions are out!
Working in collaboration with the @SABCPortal, #TeamCSIR has deployed its election prediction model at the National Results Operations Centre (ROC) to support data-driven election analysis throughout the 2026 local government elections.
Our team will continue to monitor incoming results and update model outputs as more official election data becomes available.
Follow along for insights into the science, data and innovation behind the process. #LGE2026
ℹ️ elections.sabcnews.com/
@dstigovza
Paul Graham retweeted
This is a silly, but telling example of what the DA's young Turks, realized back in 2006: you cannot speak to people in this way and expect to expand your coalition. With backing from Helen Zille, the party was on the cusp of change, but it retreated into fighting the FF+ for the marginal white voter, it alienated and sidelined a new generation of leaders, Black and white, and Zille pivoted to being an anti-woke warrior on Twitter. Had they stayed the course, 20 years later they'd have a deep, diverse bench of young leaders, durable organizing in townships, and a radically different profile. They wouldn't have to rely on low turnout in Black neighborhoods and Makgoa energy for their performance, and wouldn't be running Zille for mayor in Johannesburg. And they certainly wouldn't clapping back at @tumisole for trying to mobilize turnout.
Paul Graham retweeted
🗳️WHY THE SEAL ON A BALLOT BOX MATTERS.
Before the first vote is cast, party and candidate agents see that every ballot box is empty. Then the box is sealed, and it stays in full view until counting begins.
Agents may also photograph the ballot boxes, seals included.
After yesterday, #AGOA might well still be in play. Then we can carry on the proper dialogue about it and our future role
Voted at ParkTown Girls High - a school, so space for a good idea - getting those who have not used the whatsapp or sms lines to check their voting station before they join a queue.
Paul Graham retweeted
Can I wear campaign regalia at a voting station?
As a voter, you may wear clothing, badges or colours reflecting the contestant you support while voting.
⚠️However, political activity is not allowed in the voting station area. This includes displaying campaign material.
#IEC
Paul Graham retweeted
Today is an important day in Hungary’s political transformation. At 9.30 am, on the 70th anniversary of the crushing of the 1956 Revolution, the names of 60,000 former informers recruited by the communist regime will be made public on the nyitottaktak.hu website.
Look who is swimming in the US foreign policy river - while everyone is in denial about their responsibility for agoa
Paul Graham retweeted
Print is the resilient information substrate we need!
This quoted post is unavailable.
Parties and candidates in the #LGE2026 who seem not to have money for posters, radio spots, dedicated social media accounts, fliers or personal appearances really should not be taking up anyone's time. You can't expect the @IECSouthAfrica ballot papers to be a PSA.
Paul Graham retweeted
I've been going through the DTIC response to Washington's AGOA decision, and honestly, some of these figures put the whole debate into perspective.
Did you know that in 2025, approximately 89% of South African exports to the US entered under ordinary WTO Most-Favoured-Nation terms? Only about 10% entered under AGOA, valued at roughly $1.7 billion, down from $4 billion in 2024.
And here's what makes this interesting: AGOA exports represented just 1% of South Africa's total global exports. 😒
Now, I'm not suggesting that losing AGOA won't hurt, particularly for affected farmers, manufacturers and workers. But can we please stop talking as though South Africa's entire economy is going to collapse on 1 January 2027? 😭
We're talking about a serious challenge for certain industries, not the end of the Republic!
And while we're discussing economic dependence, can we also talk about what America gets from its relationship with South Africa? According to the DTIC, South Africa supplies 12 of the 50 minerals the US considers critical to its industries. The department also says we supply approximately 70% of certain US medical isotopes used in cancer treatment. Then there are the more than 600 American companies operating in South Africa, supporting approximately 134,600 local jobs.
So this idea that AGOA is some charitable favour Washington bestows upon helpless South Africans is rather amusing. 😂
Trade relationships involve mutual interests, darlings. America has economic interests here too! 💅
But something else in the DTIC statement caught my attention. Minister Parks Tau says South Africa spent months negotiating with Washington, offering additional concessions while trying to respect our biosecurity requirements, WTO obligations and constitutional responsibilities.
Yet, according to the department, the US subsequently introduced new issues that hadn't formed part of the negotiations that began in 2025.👀👀👀👀👀
And this is where the DTIC's Butterfly Strategy becomes interesting. South Africa is pursuing additional export opportunities across the African Continental Free Trade Area, SADC, India, the EU, UK, ASEAN, MERCOSUR and China. Which is exactly what economic diversification should look like.
Not abandoning America. Not becoming dependent on China. Not imagining BRICS will magically solve every economic problem.
But building relationships across multiple markets so that no single trading partner has disproportionate influence over our economic future.
Paul Graham retweeted
This is every tariff the United States has stacked onto South African goods.
The broad 30% tariff from 2025 that the US Supreme Court threw out, and the temporary 10% charge that expired in July, are already dead.
South Africa now faces a 12.5% “forced labour” tariff on manufactured and processed exports such as wine, chemicals and machinery. The heavier tariffs are 25% on cars and parts and up to 50% on steel and aluminium.
Underneath is AGOA, which lets qualifying goods skip Most Favoured Nation duties. It briefly lapsed between September 2025 and February 2026, was restored and extended to the end of 2028. Staying in it is possible but not guaranteed, as Washington reviews eligibility yearly and the next decision is due today.
Most damage comes from the car and metal tariffs, unrelated to AGOA, so losing AGOA would add only a smaller tax on a narrower slice of exports. Still far less than what was faced late last year.
