Semi analyst aiming for high yields and low defects
India
Joined June 2010
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$MSFT Q1 FY27 summary:
Cloud: Azure +48% to $33.2B. Microsoft Cloud +30% to $63.9B at ~50% OM.
Backlog: RPO $677B, flat QoQ (+73% YoY), with ~30% converting within 12 months. Bookings fell 12% against the October 2025 comp, when OpenAI’s ~$250B commitment landed.
Capex: $45.2B including leases fell below the >$50B guide because some third-party GPU capacity slipped into H2. CY26 is now ~$170B, after moving $190B to $175B to $170B. About 75% of capex now goes to short-lived assets.
Silicon: The fleet is NVIDIA plus AMD plus Maia. GB300 is now the majority of deployments. Maia 200 still has no GA and no external lab customer.
FCF: $18.6B (–27%) as cash capex rose 103%. Microsoft says it stays FCF-positive in FY27. It will tap additional sources of funding when attractive.
Demand evidence: Copilot daily users +~50% QoQ and 5x YoY. Moving from seats counted to token consumed.
$GOOG Q3 26 earning summary:
Cloud: + 103% to $30.7B at a 36.2% margin, and the backlog is $561B (~$310B converts within 24 months). TPU sales were not sized, and 3rd party capacity only came online at the end of Q3, so its margin hit lands in Q4.
TPU economics: Contracts show up in backlog first, then inventory, then cash. Revenue ramp is 2027.
FCF and CAPEX: –$9.1B on $51.4B of capex. The 2026 capex guide is unchanged at $195–205B, and 2027 rises significantly.
ROI: it is stated as above the cost of capital, with no figure and no capacity-priority ranking. A 6-year life for hardware risks higher depreciation later.
Demand evidence: API tokens are up 40% quarter on quarter to about 32B per minute, Gemini 4 Argon ramped 3.5x faster than Gemini 3, and the Gemini app has 1B users.
Merchant TPU sales widen the market. Inventory precedes cash, and Broadcom and CoWoS supply, not demand, set the 2026 ceiling. $GOOG
$MRVL $LITE deal end to end integration from silicon-to-light
1. Marvell owns the electrical end of the link. (Custom XPU and the DSP.) @Lumentum would provide optical end(laser, module and switch). Will make @MarvellTech the only vendor selling the full pluggable link.
2. In CPO, DSP and the pluggable module can disappear, but the external CW laser still needed. Pairing Celestial AI’s photonic fabric with Lumentum lasers keeps Marvell in the link whether the industry stays pluggable or moves to CPO.
Marvell is in advanced talks to buy data center optics maker Lumentum, according to sources, a potential megadeal amid the race to scale up in the artificial intelligence sector bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Agentic AI is driving the DC CPU demand.
@Meta Muse: AMD EPYC 9D25, 126-core Turin, 2 vCPUs. A SKU with no public spec sheet, likely Meta-custom.
@OpenAI dots: AMD EPYC 9V74, 80-core Genoa, Azure-only part, 9 vCPUs.
@grok Bot: Intel Emerald Rapids (fam 6, model 207), 4 vCPUs.
@claudeai Duet: also model 207. It called itself Sapphire Rapids; Emerald Rapids?
This is the tool sandbox, not the inference hardware, and one VM ≠ a fleet (Meta has also signed up Graviton5, Arm AGI CPU and Grace for agents).
$AMD $INTC
$AMD $META
1: EPYC CPUs power Muse and Helios rackscale systems now in testing at Meta.
2: Instinct GPUs are currently used for training, ranking and recommendation engines at Meta.
3:AMD to invests $1B in META and expand to gigawatt scale.
share.google/fgWoHPs6bUoJLab…
$TSM 3Q26 beat expectations. Revenue $46.7B +16%QoQ 41% YoY. GM 66.4% dilution from the initial ramp of N2 . Growth driven by price and mix.
TSMC is evaluating a Texas fab. If it partners with Terafab, TSMC would run the fab. teapawt.org/Parv_S/status/21077528…
Parv sharma retweeted
🔦MicroLED takes shape in Silicon Photonics.
This is a snippet from @CounterPointTR team at #OCP26
@credosemi demonstrating 1.6T ALC (🟣purple cable) with MicroLEDs for long, efficient, and high bandwidth links
The commercial models coming next year will be compatible with MLED or MicroVCSELs.
Credo also is showing a static demo of MVCSELs used for near-packaged optics in a tray designed with @SenkoConnect
MLED & MVCSEL - coexistence or collision course-is one of the major issues for scale-up and scale-in as we highlighted in:
Counterpoint's Monthly Optical Interconnect & Networking Intelligence tacker
counterpointresearch.com/en/…
$CRDO $MSFT
YMTC Files for Landmark IPO:
1. YMTC is leveraging its proprietary Xtacking wafer-bonding architecture to expand into DRAM production, running test runs of 16Gb LPDDR5 and planning faster designs for Fab 3.
2. YMTC to 3rd place globally in NAND flash shipment volume in Q2 2026, trailing only @SamsungDSGlobal @SKhynix
3. Much of YMTC's momentum is tied to a segment it barely served two years ago: enterprise SSDs for AI data centers.
More here
counterpointresearch.com/en/…
Parv sharma retweeted
Even the co-passangers are also happy on Abhijit Dipke's arrest. ❤️
India is united against CJP 🇮🇳
$SWKS @QorvoInc merger strengthens BAW filters, antenna tuning and ET portfolio. Complete RFFE for PA modules and WiFi.
Also expansion to defense and aerospace with mobile about 2/3rds of total.
Missing links are modem, transceiver and end to end integration modem to RFFE which $QCOM has.
$AAPL remains the top customer, if @Apple acquires @skyworksinc it have same portfolio breadth as Qualcomm.
Skyworks and Qorvo are now one company – uniting deep expertise, talent and a commitment to innovation to better serve customers and accelerate technology leadership worldwide. Every step forward brings us closer to what’s possible. #FutureInFocus
investors.skyworksinc.com/ne…
Parv sharma retweeted
😅 Affordable High-Speed is no issue in India.
✅For $4/month Indians get high-speed 5G 28GB+ data
✅Coverage is not an issue. 99% coverage for 5G
Any operator looking to launch Sat Broadband need
✳️Opportunity for Satellite is only in very remote places and maybe some B2B scenarios.
✳️ Data, Space Sovereignty & Security is non-negotiable for any nation, especially India.
✳️ Can’t be used as “Surveillance” for other nations.
