Class of 2018. Prev: Memecoins. Now: Farming yield on Polymarket in bear market. On @Polymarket from February 2024.
Joined July 2019
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Peter Bee retweeted
Polymarket will be the first token listed on an exchange. There will be no IPO or ICO. It will not involve traditional shares. Instead, it will feature a token, $PM, available on the exchange. This marks the first company in the world to introduce the future of finance.
Legends.
@Polymarket @shayne_coplan
Markets on everything.
We’re proud to announce that $ICE, the owner of @NYSE and the largest exchange company in the world, is making a strategic investment of $2 billion into Polymarket, valuing us at $9 billion post-money.
Our partnership with ICE marks a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream. But in addition to that, it’s a monumental step forward for DeFi. ICE is the one remaining founder-led exchange company, and Jeff is all-in on utilizing his assets, including NYSE, to usher in a new financial era of tokenization. We’re humbled to be working together on this endeavor. ICE will also begin distributing Polymarket data to thousands of financial institutions around the world. There is so much to build when you combine the force of ICE’s institutional scale and credibility with Polymarket’s consumer + cultural savvy and distribution.
The past two years have been surreal. Going from a write off to creating a category, watching our vision become a reality. The Polymarket origin story is funny because it's a rare case of the dream being identical to how things played out. If I learned one thing, it’s that bold ideas are everywhere, hidden in plain sight. It just takes someone crazy enough to spend their life willing it into existence. That’s entrepreneurship: willing things into existence.
I remember reading Robin Hanson’s literature on prediction markets and thinking - man, this is too good of an idea to just exist in whitepapers. There were a million reasons why it shouldn’t work, countless arguments of why not to do it, and the odds were against us, but we had to try.
At the onset of the pandemic, I quite literally had nothing to lose: 21, running out of money, 2.5 years since I dropped out and nothing to show for it. But I knew we were entering an era where ways to find truth would matter more than ever, and Polymarket could play a critical role in that. After all, nothing is more valuable than the truth. It’s still a work in progress, but we’re honored to have made the impact we have thus far.
I’d also like to give a special thank you to all of our users, builders, and community members who have been with us since 2020. Your support will not be forgotten 🔮
Last but not least, I am deeply grateful for all of the support and hard work of my brilliant team. I’m getting to live my wildest dreams, seemingly against all odds, and I don’t take it for granted.
The best is yet to come… 🇺🇸
Que Sera Sera
Last date is days after MidTerms if not then forget about $POLY :)
ex-polymarket employee reveals $poly is not going to come anytime soon
we may have to wait till 2028 or even more than that
Greg is an ex-polymarket employee, so i think he’s pretty credible
is he for sure right? impossible to know
but polymarket team has gone completely silent about the token over the past few weeks, possibly after guidance from legal team
i also asked a current polymarket employee about the token in DMs, their response was - “we’re building for the long term”
then Greg’s “just business” becomes a really interesting answer
it could mean the team always intended to launch a token eventually, but teased it far earlier than they expected to actually ship it because token speculation drives growth, engagement, and volume
if that’s the case, i think a lot of early users have a fair reason to feel frustrated
not because they expect an instant airdrop
but because expectations were created so early
if launch is still many months (or even years) away, was it really necessary to start teasing poly this early?
curious what everyone else thinks
Won’t happen ✌️
قاع البتكوين
طول السنين الي فاتت بيتشكل قاع البتكوين بين المتوسطات المرسومين باللون الاحمر والازرق عالفريم الشهري
الاحمر 100
الازرق 50
لو اغلق البتكوين تحت المتوسط 50 حيكون هاد اول شهر يغلق بهاد الشكل
حتي لو شفنا صعود اله الشهر الجاي بيكون ارتداد مؤقت
عالغالب القاع حيتشكل بمناطق قريبه ل49000
هذا اقرب توقع قدرت اوصل له
والله ادري واعلم
Forget about $POLY before 3rd November. And forget about it if BTC will drop to 40k $ when November comes.
Bangaranga swept this year’s Eurovision. Well, see you next year.
Who will win @Eurovision 2026?
My @Polymarket Predictions:
Entry:
Some years have blessed us with songs that were absolute surefire winners for example: Germany 🇩🇪in 2010, Sweden🇸🇪in 2012/2015/2023, or Austria🇦🇹 in 2014. Ukraine 🇺🇦in 2022 and Switzerland🇨🇭in 2024.
But there are also those tricky years, like the battle between Israel🇮🇱and Austria 🇦🇹 in 2018 or the repeat performance in 2025.
It’s worth adding that this year I jumped into predictions quite late, which means you can still catch the tasty underdogs and dark horses by betting before the semi-finals or even DURING Eurovision – just like in 2025, when waiting for better odds paid off.
After this year’s boycott, I don’t see Israel having any real chance of winning Eurovision. If that happens, next year we’ll probably see even more countries pulling out of the contest. This year the boycott by several countries is really messing up any clear prediction of the winner.
My predictions:
Best Nordic Country: Finland 🇫🇮
First Semi-Final Winner: Finland 🇫🇮
Second Semi-Final Winner: Australia 🇦🇺
Here, another interesting bet also looks like a NO on Bulgaria 🇧🇬 and a YES on Ukraine 🇺🇦. Everything depends on the number of TELEVOTES Australia receives – which is one of the biggest unknowns of this year’s Eurovision, but we’ll get to that later.
Televote Winner: Finland 🇫🇮 / Izrael+Finland 🇮🇱🇫🇮
It’s impossible to tell how the rule changes and the boycott will affect the viewers’ voting. It seems to me that Israel is overrated, and it’s entirely possible that Finland ends up winning the televote. Alternatively, the Israel + Finland combo bet giving 69%.
Jury Winner: Australia 🇦🇺 / Bulgaria 🇧🇬 NO
If there are no surprises during the performance, Australia 🇦🇺should win. If something goes wrong, however, Finland 🇫🇮will take 1st place and win the entire Eurovision. Bulgaria 🇧🇬 is a definite NO. France 🇫🇷 is underestimated.
Last Place: UK 🇬🇧or Germany 🇩🇪 / Belgium 🇧🇪 NO
Germany 🇩🇪 suffered the smallest point loss from the boycott, but they have one of the worst running-order positions in the show. Belgium 🇧🇪also won’t finish last thanks to strong vocals and great scenography. It’s also hard to imagine Austria 🇦🇹landing in last place for the second time as host, like they did in 2015. The UK 🇬🇧looks like the current favourite to finish bottom, but even here it’s difficult to gauge the real strength of the performer’s YouTube fanbase.
Top 10:
Bangaranga from Bulgaria 🇧🇬could turn out to be a surprise in terms of jury points – and not in a good way. That’s why I’d avoid this trade at the current odds. Denmark🇩🇰, along with Ukraine 🇺🇦 and France 🇫🇷, is still relatively cheap. Italy 🇮🇹and Sweden 🇸🇪are underrated. Czechia 🇨🇿is a potential underdog if the jury really rates it highly, but the televote could easily push it further down the standings. Moldova 🇲🇩 – definite NO.
Top 5:
Australia 🇦🇺 and Israel 🇮🇱 look like a good tasty bet. Romania 🇷🇴trade on NO. Bulgaria 🇧🇬is probably a NO because of weak jury votes.
Top 3:
Here I see the greatest value in Bulgaria 🇧🇬on NO. Romania 🇷🇴on NO and Finland 🇫🇮on YES.
And the main Dish:
Eurovision Winner 2026:
Europe 🇪🇺 likes to vote for old continent countries and Israel 🇮🇱. Therefore, the biggest unknown is how Australia 🇦🇺will perform in that regard in 2026. If it manages to secure 3rd place in the televote, it will win @Eurovision .
Finland 🇫🇮winning the televote would completely rule out Australia’s 🇦🇺chances of victory.
On the other hand, if Finland 🇫🇮finishes 3rd with the jury and 2nd in the televote, it should take the win.
The current percentages on @Polymarket reflect the actual winning odds pretty well. If I had to bet right now, I’d go with Finland🇫🇮. I have doubts whether, with Bulgaria’s 🇧🇬viral song and Finland’s 🇫🇮violin in the mix, Europeans 🇪🇺will actually vote for Australia🇦🇺.
On top of that, there’s the huge unknown of Israel🇮🇱with changed rules and boycott.
Personally, I’m going to wait for the jury points to come in so I can grab better odds on Finland🇫🇮. However, if Australia 🇦🇺doesn’t take 1st place with the jury, Finland 🇫🇮will have the win in the bag.
#Eurovisión #Eurovisión2026 #ESC2026 #ESC26 #Eurovision #Eurovision2026
Who will win @Eurovision 2026?
My @Polymarket Predictions:
Entry:
Some years have blessed us with songs that were absolute surefire winners for example: Germany 🇩🇪in 2010, Sweden🇸🇪in 2012/2015/2023, or Austria🇦🇹 in 2014. Ukraine 🇺🇦in 2022 and Switzerland🇨🇭in 2024.
But there are also those tricky years, like the battle between Israel🇮🇱and Austria 🇦🇹 in 2018 or the repeat performance in 2025.
It’s worth adding that this year I jumped into predictions quite late, which means you can still catch the tasty underdogs and dark horses by betting before the semi-finals or even DURING Eurovision – just like in 2025, when waiting for better odds paid off.
After this year’s boycott, I don’t see Israel having any real chance of winning Eurovision. If that happens, next year we’ll probably see even more countries pulling out of the contest. This year the boycott by several countries is really messing up any clear prediction of the winner.
My predictions:
Best Nordic Country: Finland 🇫🇮
First Semi-Final Winner: Finland 🇫🇮
Second Semi-Final Winner: Australia 🇦🇺
Here, another interesting bet also looks like a NO on Bulgaria 🇧🇬 and a YES on Ukraine 🇺🇦. Everything depends on the number of TELEVOTES Australia receives – which is one of the biggest unknowns of this year’s Eurovision, but we’ll get to that later.
Televote Winner: Finland 🇫🇮 / Izrael+Finland 🇮🇱🇫🇮
It’s impossible to tell how the rule changes and the boycott will affect the viewers’ voting. It seems to me that Israel is overrated, and it’s entirely possible that Finland ends up winning the televote. Alternatively, the Israel + Finland combo bet giving 69%.
Jury Winner: Australia 🇦🇺 / Bulgaria 🇧🇬 NO
If there are no surprises during the performance, Australia 🇦🇺should win. If something goes wrong, however, Finland 🇫🇮will take 1st place and win the entire Eurovision. Bulgaria 🇧🇬 is a definite NO. France 🇫🇷 is underestimated.
Last Place: UK 🇬🇧or Germany 🇩🇪 / Belgium 🇧🇪 NO
Germany 🇩🇪 suffered the smallest point loss from the boycott, but they have one of the worst running-order positions in the show. Belgium 🇧🇪also won’t finish last thanks to strong vocals and great scenography. It’s also hard to imagine Austria 🇦🇹landing in last place for the second time as host, like they did in 2015. The UK 🇬🇧looks like the current favourite to finish bottom, but even here it’s difficult to gauge the real strength of the performer’s YouTube fanbase.
Top 10:
Bangaranga from Bulgaria 🇧🇬could turn out to be a surprise in terms of jury points – and not in a good way. That’s why I’d avoid this trade at the current odds. Denmark🇩🇰, along with Ukraine 🇺🇦 and France 🇫🇷, is still relatively cheap. Italy 🇮🇹and Sweden 🇸🇪are underrated. Czechia 🇨🇿is a potential underdog if the jury really rates it highly, but the televote could easily push it further down the standings. Moldova 🇲🇩 – definite NO.
Top 5:
Australia 🇦🇺 and Israel 🇮🇱 look like a good tasty bet. Romania 🇷🇴trade on NO. Bulgaria 🇧🇬is probably a NO because of weak jury votes.
Top 3:
Here I see the greatest value in Bulgaria 🇧🇬on NO. Romania 🇷🇴on NO and Finland 🇫🇮on YES.
And the main Dish:
Eurovision Winner 2026:
Europe 🇪🇺 likes to vote for old continent countries and Israel 🇮🇱. Therefore, the biggest unknown is how Australia 🇦🇺will perform in that regard in 2026. If it manages to secure 3rd place in the televote, it will win @Eurovision .
Finland 🇫🇮winning the televote would completely rule out Australia’s 🇦🇺chances of victory.
On the other hand, if Finland 🇫🇮finishes 3rd with the jury and 2nd in the televote, it should take the win.
The current percentages on @Polymarket reflect the actual winning odds pretty well. If I had to bet right now, I’d go with Finland🇫🇮. I have doubts whether, with Bulgaria’s 🇧🇬viral song and Finland’s 🇫🇮violin in the mix, Europeans 🇪🇺will actually vote for Australia🇦🇺.
On top of that, there’s the huge unknown of Israel🇮🇱with changed rules and boycott.
Personally, I’m going to wait for the jury points to come in so I can grab better odds on Finland🇫🇮. However, if Australia 🇦🇺doesn’t take 1st place with the jury, Finland 🇫🇮will have the win in the bag.
#Eurovisión #Eurovisión2026 #ESC2026 #ESC26 #Eurovision #Eurovision2026
Among the Scandinavian countries, Finland wins hands down. It will be Best @Eurovision Nordic Country winner on @Polymarket.
#Eurovision #Eurovision2026 #ESC2026
You can trade @Eurovision on Polymarket: polymarket.com/?r=PeterBee
Nailed it. Cyprus and Norway both made it through, plus the NO bet on Armenia. Every single one of the best risk-to-reward @Polymarket bets hit perfectly.
But this is just the warm-up before the main course. Who’s going to win @Eurovision 2026?
#ESC26 #Eurovision
The second semi-final isn’t the main dish when it comes to @Eurovision betting, but here are a few of my takeaways on @Polymarket predictions:
The countries that are definitely going to qualify are: Australia, Denmark, Romania, and Ukraine thanks to the war that’s still going on there. I’d also throw Bulgaria’s catchy earworm into the mix.
I’d skip Albania and Malta altogether, or maybe try betting against them (NO) if you’re convinced those countries won’t qualify. The YES bet has way too low a risk-reward ratio to be worth the gamble.
Betting that Cyprus and Norway will both reach the Final is definitely worth the risk.
I think Armenia is a tempting little snack for a NO bet. Azerbaijan is underrated because this year the juries are back voting in the semi-finals, and this country is absolutely loved by them. So I wouldn’t bother with a NO here just for a 4% profit. If someone’s chasing a big R:R, then this is where I’d bet on YES.
Finally, one last thing: even though this is a celebration of music, we have to remember it’s largely a political contest. From my experience last year on @Polymarket , I know that the best juicy opportunity is betting on the winner of the final. So Who will
So who’s going to qualify for the @Eurovision final and not get knocked out in the second semi-final?
The second semi-final isn’t the main dish when it comes to @Eurovision betting, but here are a few of my takeaways on @Polymarket predictions:
The countries that are definitely going to qualify are: Australia, Denmark, Romania, and Ukraine thanks to the war that’s still going on there. I’d also throw Bulgaria’s catchy earworm into the mix.
I’d skip Albania and Malta altogether, or maybe try betting against them (NO) if you’re convinced those countries won’t qualify. The YES bet has way too low a risk-reward ratio to be worth the gamble.
Betting that Cyprus and Norway will both reach the Final is definitely worth the risk.
I think Armenia is a tempting little snack for a NO bet. Azerbaijan is underrated because this year the juries are back voting in the semi-finals, and this country is absolutely loved by them. So I wouldn’t bother with a NO here just for a 4% profit. If someone’s chasing a big R:R, then this is where I’d bet on YES.
Finally, one last thing: even though this is a celebration of music, we have to remember it’s largely a political contest. From my experience last year on @Polymarket , I know that the best juicy opportunity is betting on the winner of the final. So Who will
So who’s going to qualify for the @Eurovision final and not get knocked out in the second semi-final?
Following the latest @Polymarket update, you can clearly see reduced liquidity across the order books. Market makers and liquidity-providing bots haven’t fully switched over yet. On some markets, liquidity is as much as 20x lower than before. The lack of sponsored rewards isn’t helping either.
Yeah sure they will print 2 bln USDC from the air to reward users. Or will just spend all money they raised and go bancrupt. Instead making good criteria and AirDrop $POLY from the air by creating value.
There will be no $POLY airdrop
Let me explain before you rage in the comments
Polymarket just announced their own stablecoin
Markets on "will they launch a token" are pumping, and IPO theories are everywhere
But what if the airdrop and the token are two separate things?
They could reward users in their stablecoin: Tens of thousands of dollars for loyalty
No token, just cash
Meanwhile, $POLY stays reserved for the IPO and institutional investors
Everyone wins, users get paid without waiting for TGE dumps
Institutions get security that no one will crash their investment on day one
I haven't seen anyone propose this theory, but it makes too much sense
Polymarket doesn't need a token to reward you, they need a token to go public
But if I'm right and you've been expecting a token drop this whole time, you might be in for a surprise
All for $POLY
Well… @Polymarket will do it better 👀
First major prediction market to TGE: Opinion Labs 👀
Airdrop checker is live: opinion.foundation/claim
~3% allocated to Season 1 airdrop (+1.5% to Binance Alpha)
1 point ≈ $6–7. Binance pre-market at $0.48.
But some bought OTC at $40–60 per point…
Did you farm it?
