It turns out that the biggest believers in #Bitcoin are those who stare at the logo for the longest.
1) Creates banking reserves out of thin air
2) Enables reckless spending via purchasing govt debt
3) Assures everyone the fed will continue this practice
4) Warns the national debt is not sustainable
5) Denies all responsibility
Jerome Powell the fence sitter
Piker Capital retweeted
the stock market is funny because the largest global supply chain shock since a deadly worldwide pandemic is worth -0.2% but a single blog post speculating about a new technology can stone cold stunner SaaS companies -50%.
There is nothing an economist hates more than a healthy functioning free market system.
Excl. some select Austrians
Context
Using the 2-Year Treasury to set the federal funds rate is neither workable nor desirable as a mechanical rule. Here are a few concerns:
Circularity. The 2-year embeds expectations about what the Fed will do. If the Fed ties its policy rate mechanically to it, this creates feedback loops and potential instability.
Mandate. Congress charged the Fed with pursuing stable prices and maximum employment. It is unclear how the Fed could justify fully outsourcing that responsibility to markets—or who would be held accountable when real-world outcomes fall short.
Scope. The 2-year reflects more than macroeconomic fundamentals or expectations about policy. For example, the liquidity premium could rise sharply in a financial crisis, but you would not want the Fed to raise its policy rate in response to that.
PS: The federal funds rate is not set by “400 PhD economists.” It is set by a vote of 12 officials on the Federal Open Market Committee, who draw on data, models, forecasts, financial conditions (including the 2-year), and their own judgment.
X is a place where you take 300 words to describe a concept that is summed up in about 3 seconds with the fisher equation.
I debated posting this because it can make you feel hopeless.
But I think the truth is always best found out early.
Many financial gurus talk about investing $100/mo etc to get to a point with $1,000,00 when you retire.
The reality of the math is this - if inflation is 3% per year, that $1,000,000 isn’t worth $1,000,000 today.
Because compounding inflation is just as powerful as compounding returns.
Said differently $1,000,000 in 60 years is only worth $167,000 of today’s buying power with 3% inflation.
And typically w late stage capitalism, rate of inflation increases (not decreases).
So what does this mean in reality?
You have to 6x your goal.
Ex: if you wanted to retire with $1,000,000 and $40,000 per year passive, you actually want $6,000,000 and $240,000 per year passive.
If you wanted $4,000,000 and $200,000 in passive income. You really need your goal to be $24,000,000 and $1,2000,000 in passive income.
Now let’s say inflation is 2.3% rather than 3% (the historical average). Okay. You’ll have overshot your goal by 50% (money will only be 1/4 as valuable rather than 1/6th).
Great. Retire early.
But the alternative is certainly worse. Undershoot and be a burden to the people you care about hoping for social nets which may or may not exist then. Who knows.
Regardless, I’ve never seen anyone talk about this - and maybe it’s because it makes people feel hopeless.
But I figure math is math and you shouldn’t be afraid to do it for yourself.
Always better to overshoot and get there early than never arrive.
“Low” is relative.
Many of these examples showed a clear or at least feasible path to profitability early in their infancy. I’m not entirely convinced we can say the same here.
The burning ship in the background is ironically the current state of affairs of MSTR’s operational business.
On hyperscaler GPU depreciation schedules… many including @RihardJarc have written extensively about the subject in recent months.
Burry isn’t on some isolated island crying out fraud.
Piker Capital retweeted
Another fantastic show on the way this week with @DarioCpx
Friday at 8pm EST
#MacroEdge
teapawt.org/i/spaces/1ZkKzZpVovgKv
What most people don’t realize (not referring to Samantha) is that Wall ST’s real interest in cryptocurrency is in SELLING to you.
The financial services sector hated crypto until they figured out how to monetize it… FMS respondents are still (mostly) not in that business (yet)
A small bribe to keep the addicts coming back to the casino
💛 Binance launches the Together Initiative, a $400M recovery and confidence-rebuilding plan to support users and institutions during this volatile period.
Read more 👇
binance.com/en/support/annou…
CoinMarketCap tracks more than 25 million cryptocurrencies and tokens.
Each one, of course, represents a totally unique intrinsic value…. definitely not just random internet token schemes.
