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After heads lands five straight times, is a coin toss more likely to land on tails?
No, but our brains like to tell us otherwise.
This is the gambler's fallacy, and it can distort how we think about betting probabilities 🧵
The same thinking can affect sports bettors.
There's no such thing as being "due" for a win or a loss.
What matters is whether the available odds accurately reflect the probability of the next outcome.
The takeaway?
Streaks aren't evidence that an outcome is overdue.
Past results matter when they reveal useful information, not because probability owes a correction.
Understand it in full 👇
pinnacle.ca/betting-resource…
A strong line for the Brewers tonight.
The Rays are now at +803 to complete the comeback.
If they can find a way to beat Misiorowski tonight, that price could be slashed by half or more.
#WorldSeries
The Rays are now at +803 to complete the comeback.
If they can find a way to beat Misiorowski tonight, that price could be slashed by half or more.
#WorldSeries
Cowboys -6.5 vs Cardinals | O/U 54.5
Commanders -4 vs Eagles | O/U 40.5
NFL Week 8 (so far) @ Pinnacle:
Packers -4 vs Panthers | O/U 48
Bills -3 vs Ravens | O/U 54
Raiders -1 @ Jets | O/U 44.5
Bengals -10.5 vs Titans | O/U 47
Lions -3 vs Vikings | O/U 46
Buccaneers -2 vs Falcons | O/U 46
Steelers -4 vs Browns | O/U 38.5
Cardinals/Cowboys NL
Rams -7 vs Chargers | O/U 44
Patriots -7.5 @ Dolphins | O/U 44.5
Chiefs -1.5 @ Broncos | O/U 41
Eagles/Commanders NL
Seahawks -3.5 vs Bears | O/U 46.5
Bye: Texans, Saints, Giants & 49ers
Favorites win more, but underdogs pay more.
Which side delivers better returns over the long haul?
The numbers tell the story through 19,000+ ATP matches.
@nishikoripicks ✍️
pinnacle.ca/betting-resource…
NFL Week 7 tally @ Pinnacle:
✔️ Favorites went 10-4 straight up
✔️ Favorites went 8-6 ATS
⬆️ Overs went 9-5
Season to date:
✔️ Favorites are 68-38-1 straight up
🐶 Underdogs are 57-50 ATS
⬆️ Overs are 55-51-1
Pinnacle retweeted
How can two bets with a 2% edge turn into a 47% edge?
The answer lies in one of sports betting's most interesting strategies: middling.
Here's how the math works w/ @DoctorRazzWSOP 🧵
The Eagles actually saw some late support as the spread closed at 3.5 last night.
Not that it mattered.
In their last five head to head matchups, the Cowboys and Eagles are 4-1 to the under.
The total remains at 44 for tonight.
We saw the spread flip to 3.5 briefly for tonight, but since back to 4.5 favoring the Cowboys.
The total has remained at 44 since early last week.
NFL Week 8 (so far) @ Pinnacle:
Packers -4 vs Panthers | O/U 48
Bills -3 vs Ravens | O/U 54
Raiders -1 @ Jets | O/U 44.5
Bengals -10.5 vs Titans | O/U 47
Lions -3 vs Vikings | O/U 46
Buccaneers -2 vs Falcons | O/U 46
Steelers -4 vs Browns | O/U 38.5
Cardinals/Cowboys NL
Rams -7 vs Chargers | O/U 44
Patriots -7.5 @ Dolphins | O/U 44.5
Chiefs -1.5 @ Broncos | O/U 41
Eagles/Commanders NL
Seahawks -3.5 vs Bears | O/U 46.5
Bye: Texans, Saints, Giants & 49ers
Pinnacle retweeted
Nice to go 4 of 5 with my 1u best bets! Some punchy prices too:
✅ Real Madrid over 1.5 TT -110
✅ Sociedad + BTTS +230
✅ Inter + BTTS +153
❌ Como +BTTS +194
✅ RBL -1.5 AH +10
We record again on Wednesday 💪
Injuries are piling up as the schedule intensifies, but are the markets adjusting correctly? 🤔
Episode 121 of Pinnacle FC w/ @GarethWheeler and @JAKEOZZ is LIVE. 👇
youtu.be/G_mK5rmHglg
Current #WorldSeries prices at Pinnacle — any value on either side heading into game 3 tonight? 🤔
