Founder & Principal | Bowes Strategy & Analytics Political Analyst/Campaign Consultant focused on improving GOP campaign strategy and GOTV initiatives
Joined September 2025
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Few things about me:
1) I'm a Conservative Republican focused on electing Conservative Republicans
2) I'm NOT a pollster. I'm an independent polticial analyst and campaign consultant
3) My forecasts are done through data-driven analysis and have NO political bias.
A majority of Mainers (58%) expect Collins to win reelection, despite skewed markets and polling showing a different result.
Even if Collins overperforms by only half of her usual margin (4-5 pts), this is a R+2-3 result, about where my latest Senate forecast has it
Not sure about this one. There's no world where Dems are doing better in the Senate than the Gov race. Maine Gov has consistently sat around D+10-12. A tie makes no sense.
Marist poll | 10/22-10/25 LV
Maine Governor 2026
🟥Bobby Charles 44%
🟦Hannah Pingree 44%
⬜️Rick Bennett 6%
Link to poll: maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-con…
Chase Bowes retweeted
Marist poll | 10/22-10/25 LV
US Senate Maine 2026
🟦Troy Jackson 49%
🟥Susan Collins 47% (incumbent)
Chase Bowes retweeted
If El-Sayed only winds up with 47% of the Black Vote in Michigan then goodnight the lights, he has no chance.
That's why Obama went up there... But it is worse than I thought.
47% is abysmal for a Democrat.
*Just a live, data-driven forecast, NOT A POLL*
U.S. Senate Forecast: October 24, 2026
🔴GOP: 53 Seats (=)
🔵DEMS: 47 Seats (=)
🔵 DEM Flips: 1
North Carolina
🔴GOP Flips: 1
Michigan
Key Rating Changes:
Michigan: 🔵->🔴
Margins (States under 15%)
Alaska: 🔴+ 2.6
Florida: 🔴+ 9.84
Georgia: 🔵+ 8.88
Iowa: 🔴+ 4.8
Kansas: 🔴+ 4.5
Maine: 🔴+ 3.3
Michigan: 🔴+ 0.5
Minnesota: 🔵+ 2.4
Mississippi: 🔴+ 13.0
Montana: 🔴+ 11.0
Nebraska: 🔴+ 11.2
New Hampshire: 🔵+ 2.6
North Carolina: 🔵+ 8.9
Ohio: 🔴+ 2.7
South Carolina: 🔴+ 7.1
Texas: 🔴+ 1.2
Chase Bowes retweeted
Chase's election forecasts are second to none.
That's why he's been my go-to source for data analysis.
Knocking doors today with @Shawn_Farash and Brennan! 10 days to go and there's so much to be done:
- Knock some doors
- Make phone calls
- GO VOTE (and bring 10 friends)
WE CAN WIN THIS!!
My wife Brennan and I, along with the great Chase Bowes @PolPredictions spent this morning knocking on doors for Republicans UP AND DOWN THE BALLOT in Tennessee!
Doors win wars!
It's a beautiful day to get out, get excited, and GO VOTE!
NOBODY STAYS HOME.
12 Days to the midterms! Discussing now LIVE w/ @MisfitPatriot
Going live with @PolPredictions. Tune in NOW rumble.com/v7ha094-updated-m…
Great result for Rogers given Marist's track record. Unless Marist magically becomes accurate, this likely translates to a Rogers +2-3 result. AES being at 50 is slighly concerning for Rogers, however.
After doing further research, I deleted a post commenting on an anti-Amy Acton ad in the OH Governor race. After learning more about the circumstances, the execution of the ad is in bad taste by the Ramaswamy campaign, regardless of the message they are attempting to convey.
I've essentially already written off FL-25 as Moskowitz is highly funded and running strong. Dropping NC-11 is highly concerning to me, as I consider it one of the closest races of the cycle. Republicans losing here is not a good sign for November.
TRIAGE NEWS: @CLFSuperPAC is axing its reservation to oust Dem Rep Jared MOSKOWITZ
CLF will save $6M in #FL25 (Trump+9). GOP nominee is Scott Singer
ALSO No Going Back PAC is triaging in #NC11 (Trump+10), suggesting they think Jamie Ager (D) will win
More in @PunchbowlNews PM
Chase Bowes retweeted
Bongino Rule on the ad featuring Amy Acton's mother.
There may be more to that story and it looks like Acton and her mother haven't seen each other for nearly 50 years.
Hold.
Currently catching up on all the updates from the first day of Texas early voting. Definitely some mixed signs today; too early to analyze Paxton's performance.
Marist shifts 4 points in favor of Husted, previously showing a +8 environment for Brown. Marist is notorious for underestimating Republicans and has missed the Ohio Senate result by around 6% the last 3 times.
Marist Poll (OH Senate): Marist | Actual | Miss
2018: D+ 13 | D+ 6.8 | R+ 6.2
2022: EVEN | R+ 6.1 | R+ 6.1
2024: D+ 2 | R+ 3.6 | R+ 5.6
If this pattern continues, Husted sits around R+ 1.6-2.2. My model currently has him at R+2.8
Rhode Island and Tennessee join the cycle's more competitive races, with Independent candidates expected to take off significant chunks of typical party-line voters. See all competitive margins below ⬇️⬇️⬇️
*Just a live, data-driven forecast, NOT A POLL*
U.S. Gubernatorial Forecast: October 19, 2026
🔴GOP: 17 (25) Seats (-1)
🔵DEMS: 19 (25) Seats (+1)
🔵 DEM Flips: 2
Alaska
Iowa
🔴GOP Flips: 1
Kansas
Margins (States under 15%):
Alaska: 🔵+ 1.3 (FLIP)
Arizona: 🔵+ 5.6
Florida: 🔴+ 7.2
Georgia: 🔴+ 4.0
Iowa: 🔵+ 0.5 (FLIP)
Kansas: 🔴+ 6.8 (FLIP)
Maine: 🔵+ 9.2
Michigan:🔵+ 6.4
Minnesota: 🔵+ 6.4
Nebraska: 🔴+ 12.9
Nevada: 🔴+ 2.2
New Hampshire: 🔴+ 8.1
New Mexico: 🔵+ 6.3
New York: 🔵+ 12.1
Ohio: 🔴+ 3.6
Oregon: 🔵+ 4.5
Rhode Island: 🔵+ 9.5
Tennessee: 🔴+ 11.5
Texas: 🔴+ 9.2
Wisconsin: 🔵+ 3.1
*Just a live, data-driven forecast, NOT A POLL*
U.S. Gubernatorial Forecast: October 19, 2026
🔴GOP: 17 (25) Seats (-1)
🔵DEMS: 19 (25) Seats (+1)
🔵 DEM Flips: 2
Alaska
Iowa
🔴GOP Flips: 1
Kansas
Margins (States under 15%):
Alaska: 🔵+ 1.3 (FLIP)
Arizona: 🔵+ 5.6
Florida: 🔴+ 7.2
Georgia: 🔴+ 4.0
Iowa: 🔵+ 0.5 (FLIP)
Kansas: 🔴+ 6.8 (FLIP)
Maine: 🔵+ 9.2
Michigan:🔵+ 6.4
Minnesota: 🔵+ 6.4
Nebraska: 🔴+ 12.9
Nevada: 🔴+ 2.2
New Hampshire: 🔴+ 8.1
New Mexico: 🔵+ 6.3
New York: 🔵+ 12.1
Ohio: 🔴+ 3.6
Oregon: 🔵+ 4.5
Rhode Island: 🔵+ 9.5
Tennessee: 🔴+ 11.5
Texas: 🔴+ 9.2
Wisconsin: 🔵+ 3.1