The U.S. decided near the end of 2021 to make some of its most sensitive information public.
Given how skeptical some allies remained, the most powerful effect of disclosing it was to shape Russian behavior and deprive Putin of using misinformation. wapo.st/3CeLJJL

ALT Image of President Biden at the January 19 news conference where he said he thought Russia would invade Ukraine. Photo and graphic courtesy of Emily Sabens for The Washington Post; Demetrius Freeman for The Washington Post; and iStock. Quote says "Our allies and partners are ready to impose severe costs and significant harm on Russia and the Russian economy.” Attributed to Biden.
When the U.S. briefed NATO allies of Russia’s intention, most were doubtful of the intelligence.
The British and the Baltic states were on board, but France and Germany remembered U.S. claims about intelligence on Iraq and insisted on pursuing diplomacy. wapo.st/3CeLJJL
U.S. intelligence was hardly an open book for Ukraine. Guidance prohibited agencies from sharing tactical information that Ukraine could use to launch attacks on Russian troops.
Ukraine’s intelligence apparatus was also shot through with Russian moles. wapo.st/3CeLJJL
Secretary of State Antony Blinken briefed Zelensky in November 2021.
He found Zelensky “serious, deliberate, stoic,” but the Ukrainians experienced “Russian feints in the past,” and Zelensky worried about economic collapse if his country panicked. wapo.st/3CeLJJL
Biden’s advisers were confident Ukraine would put up a fight, but Russia had more troops and weaponry.
The administration was concerned President Volodymyr Zelensky would be no match against Putin.
Americans expected Kyiv to fall, just not quickly. wapo.st/3CeLJJL
Biden, who had promised to keep the U.S. out of new wars, was determined that Putin must either be deterred or confronted, and that the U.S. must not act alone. Yet NATO was far from unified on how to deal with Moscow, and U.S. credibility was weak. wapo.st/3CeLJJL
There’s a new alleged Russian spy. It’s a beluga whale. wapo.st/2GHIpbu
Often overlooked in Yemen’s wartime narrative are women and children. Yet they are the ones most likely to be displaced, deprived and abused. wapo.st/2RUQFJK
Moscow looks back with nostalgia: Bush was a steady hand while Soviet Union collapsed wapo.st/2E7W9xj
Merkel and Macron got along so well in Paris that a 100-year-old lady thought they were married wapo.st/2QB3WGE





!["We assess that [Russia plans] to conduct a significant strategic attack on Ukraine from multiple directions simultaneously. ... Their version of 'shock and awe,'" said Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, briefing President Biden in October 2021.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaYqygRX0AAvH2I.png?name=small&format=webp)
