Markets, data, maths & crypto
onchain
Joined January 2022
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borrow at 7.5%
earn 3.5% in T-bills
call it "carry"
that’s not carry, that’s a subscription
happy sunday CT
Markets don’t behave the same way all the time.
Bitcoin can trend, chop sideways, or enter a high-volatility regime.
A Markov chain gives us a mathematical way to model the probabilities of moving between different states.
The core idea is simple:
The next state depends on the current state, according to a transition matrix.
Repeatedly applying that matrix shows how the probabilities of different states evolve over time.
"i’m just gonna close my eyes for 10 minutes while this candle closes..."
10 minutes later:
• funding rate spiked
• margin call received
• room turned red
• yield reset to zero
Happy Saturday CT... we go again
HoneyB targets 2 - 4% APY on Bitcoin without selling the BTC.
Let’s underwrite it the way an allocator would: where does the yield come from, what does it cost, and what would I need to see?
@HoneyB_BTC, a quick analysis 🧵
What I’d want published at launch:
→ Realized net yield vs target
→ Borrow rate actually paid
→ Fund performance vs the 12% target
→ LTV and liquidation thresholds
→ Reporting cadence + proof of reserves
Solv showed what happens when TVL can’t be verified.
A zero-cost portfolio doesn’t mean a risk-free portfolio.
You could go long $10k of ETH and short $10k of BTC.
Your initial net investment is roughly zero, but your PnL still depends on how both assets move.
This distinction matters.
A zero-cost strategy can lose money.
An arbitrage portfolio, under the standard model, must have no downside and a strictly positive payoff in at least one possible outcome.
A portfolio is more than a list of assets.
In linear algebra, you can represent your holdings as a vector and their prices as another.
Multiply them together, and you get the portfolio value.
Looks simple in theory (or not), but it does have powerful applications.
Say you hold:
- 0.1 BTC at $60k
- 2 ETH at $3k
- $1k in USDC
Your portfolio is worth $13k.
Mathematically, this is a dot product: multiply each holding by its price, then sum the results.
Check out @Bound_Exchange, anon
More on this later!
82x if all three hit.
$BTC $95K → $70K → $124K
Soon on Bound: your whole chart, priced as one trade.
