New poll from Cook Political Report/New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group #TXSEN 🔵Talarico: 49% 🔴Paxton: 44% ⚪️Brown: 3% #TXGOV 🔴Abbott: 48% 🔵Hinojosa: 46% ⚪️Dixon: 3% Fielded 10/9-13, n=934 LV, MOE=+-3/2% cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…

This is incredibly misleading. @50plus1news was planning to publish an investigation into Wedgewood's polls tomorrow morning, and reached out to them this morning for comment. This is just an attempt to save face after they realized we caught them.

It's interesting how little the early voting data seems to move the prediction markets. I've seen people on here say that the Texas voting has either been terrible or excellent for Talarico, yet the people with money on the line don't seem to ascribe any signal to it.

BOMBSHELL: Amy Acton’s own MOTHER just dropped a devastating ad warning Ohio NOT to elect her daughter. She calls Amy a habitual liar who “needs help” and is totally unfit for governor. When your own mother begs voters to stay away, it’s OVER. Must watch! 👇

We analyzed over 1 billion trades to find out why Kalshi markets are so accurate. A group of 15,000 superforecasters is largely responsible. What stands out: -There are 14,694 people on Kalshi who have significantly better predictive ability than other traders. This is measured by Brier skill score, which tracks trader calibration. -They provide their forecasts to the whole platform, not just the top few markets. Skilled traders are active in 97.3% of markets. -Timing and category change behavior: for example, superforecasters enter economic markets earlier, and sports markets later. -These traders aren’t concentrated in the coasts or major cities. They come from all around the country, with Wyoming having the most per capita. Prediction markets provide an incentive for smart people to do research, think rationally, and share their views with the world. This incentive has brought almost 15,000 superforecasters to Kalshi, who create a public good by providing accurate forecasts to nearly every market on the platform.

We analyzed over 1 billion trades to find out why Kalshi markets are so accurate. A group of 15,000 superforecasters is largely responsible. What stands out: -There are 14,694 people on Kalshi who have significantly better predictive ability than other traders. This is measured by Brier skill score, which tracks trader calibration. -They provide their forecasts to the whole platform, not just the top few markets. Skilled traders are active in 97.3% of markets. -Timing and category change behavior: for example, superforecasters enter economic markets earlier, and sports markets later. -These traders aren’t concentrated in the coasts or major cities. They come from all around the country, with Wyoming having the most per capita. Prediction markets provide an incentive for smart people to do research, think rationally, and share their views with the world. This incentive has brought almost 15,000 superforecasters to Kalshi, who create a public good by providing accurate forecasts to nearly every market on the platform.

HAPPENING NOW in downtown Chicago, outside the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the historic center of onion futures trading

FIFA is considering scrapping its Peace Prize just one year after awarding its inaugural honor to President Donald Trump. Following backlash over the decision, FIFA’s 22-member social responsibility committee will review whether the award should continue, be reformed to exclude politicians, or be eliminated altogether, with a recommendation expected in December. via The Athletic 📷 Getty

Am I dumb? @PredMTrader they can’t keep her, can they?

He took one the biggest swings of his life on the 2024 election... and he got run over. Maybe a loss like that would be enough to swear off risk? Not even close. Check his Poly today and there are hundreds of thousands in open positions. Betting on Chaos w/ @Domahhhh

Interesting that Trump clearly watched Hannity last night and applauded how well others did on the show.. But not his newest press secretary😅

Introducing “My Ballot” to the Kalshi Midterms Hub, with nonpartisan election data from Ballotpedia. All of the information you need to vote, stay informed, and track the real-time market movements in one place.

Eagles announce QB Jalen Hurts has "superficial blood clot" will miss Sunday's game vs. Panthers.

“I had… flown to a mental hospital in Ohio.” - James Talarico