Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Dayton. Author, "I'm Here to Ask for Your Vote" & "Do Running Mates Matter?"
Ohio, USA
Joined May 2016
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Christopher Devine retweeted
'Second in Command,' a new book edited by @univofdayton political scientist @ProfDevine, brings together leading scholars to trace the growing influence of vice presidents and running mates in American politics: udayton.co/lAO
Christopher Devine retweeted
Excited to announce the formal release of our second collection of essays on politics in the postwar Midwest. It was a dream of mine to put essays in conversation with each other across two volumes. Thx to my co editor @jlauck1941, our amazing contributors, and @kansas_press!
Christopher Devine retweeted
A very simple prescription for Democrats: Just wait.
There's reason to be skeptical toward early campaign-based explanations for Harris' loss. And the issues that might propel a Dem comeback are likely unknown until Trump starts governing.
semafor.com/article/11/08/20…
Christopher Devine retweeted
People always doubt the future viability of parties that lose big elections. But then the pressure goes on the new party in power, voters sour on them, and the circle of life continues.
Christopher Devine retweeted
Latest numbers: across the seven battleground states, the '20-'24 swing towards Trump was ~3.1 pts. Across the other 43 states (+DC), it was ~6.7 pts.
Bottom line: the Harris campaign swam impressively against some very strong underlying currents.
Christopher Devine retweeted
“... if someone is looking for someone or something to blame for Kamala Harris’ loss, I don’t think Tim Walz is the right person to focus on.” @ProfDevine tells @StarTribune startribune.com/whats-next-f… #Election2024
Christopher Devine retweeted
Vance could be a more influential VP than Pence, who handled some high-profile tasks but ultimately didn't hold sway with Trump, @ProfDevine told @DispatchAlerts dispatch.com/story/news/poli…
Christopher Devine retweeted
My initial take on Trump's win:
goodauthority.org/news/where…
His gains were widespread, so explanations should start with the broadest factors -- not with bespoke stories about states, cities, counties, and groups.
The simplest explanation: party of unpopular incumbent loses.
1/2
Christopher Devine retweeted
This doesn’t strike as “if only we put forward this other candidate” or “if only more people knocked on doors in PA” or “Harris should’ve talked more about [insert pet issue here].”
This is much deeper than that
Christopher Devine retweeted
2024 polling error in historical context (for key states):
1. Much better in most of Midwest + NC vs. 16/20.
2. IA big exception. Along w/FL + TX, worst polling misses over last 2 decades.
3. Same direction of error for ~every state for 3rd straight year--this is not normal.
Christopher Devine retweeted
I cannot say this enough:
- Early exits are not suitable for demographic analysis or comparisons.
- AP/Votecast is still preliminary -- should be adjusted for final vote counts.
- We don't have Catalist. Or Pew validated voters.
It's just too early to have confident takes!
Christopher Devine retweeted
Staggering class realignment/shift in working class
Harris lost DESPITE major shift of affluent voters her way
2020: Trump wins voters over $100K, 54-52
2024: *Harris* wins voters over $100K, 54-45
2020: Biden wins voters $50K-$100K, 57-42
2024: *Trump* w/ voters $50K-$100K, 49-47
2020: Biden wins voters under $50K, 55-45
2024: Trump massive improvement w/ voters under $50K, 49-48
Christopher Devine retweeted
I counted the yard signs in my neighborhood, and "ADT Home Security" is going to win in a landslide.
Christopher Devine retweeted
Who’s winning the 2024 ground game?
Data collected by @swhyard_ and I shows @KamalaHarris is dominating the ground game in PA, MI and GA.
For more on the placement and effects of offices, our new book Storefront Campaining will be out later this month! cambridge.org/core/elements/…
Christopher Devine retweeted
Many thanks to @LSEUSAblog for the opportunity to discuss Iowa in the context of the presidential election this week.
A new Iowa poll shows Kamala Harris in the lead. Here’s why that matters wp.me/p3I2YF-eu8
Christopher Devine retweeted
One fascinating consequence of the diploma divide is that habitual voters are now more likely than sporadic voters to support the Democratic Party...so, all else equal, Republican candidates benefit as the turnout rate gets higher:
xitter.cf/dhopkins1776/status/18…
Christopher Devine retweeted
NEW BOOK ALERT! The Legacy of the Trump Administration: A Disruptive Presidency is now available on Springer Link, analyzing the domestic policies, foreign policies and rhetorical legacy of the first Trump administration. link.springer.com/book/10.10…
Christopher Devine retweeted
👀
Former Ohio Governor Bob Taft (R) endorses @SherrodBrown (D) for #OHSen.
Taft is not only a Republican, he’s the only person to have beaten Brown in a political race — the 1990 campaign for Ohio Secretary of State.
Via @daytondailynews:
daytondailynews.com/ideas-vo…
