Futures trader & builder. Trading NQ/ES and coding NinjaTrader indicators and algos. Sharing the process, the tools, and the occasional outdoor adventure.
Wilmington, NC
Joined April 2008
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Mattias | QuantCraft retweeted
Trump every time he sees the $SPX down 1% from ATH’s be like:
Mattias | QuantCraft retweeted
The problem with the $2 trillion in circular AI financing is that it is all contingent on the frontiers (Anthropic/ OpenAI) being money good on their $1.5+TN in unfunded commitments. Which they won't be if Chinese open LLMs grab market share
Hence the push against Chinese LLMs
Mattias | QuantCraft retweeted
Today, our nation pauses to honor four American heroes. 🇺🇸❤️
We lift their families in prayer, give thanks for their service to our country, and mourn alongside them.
God bless our fallen heroes, and may God bless the United States of America.
Mattias | QuantCraft retweeted
Ninety-nine percent of people in the world are convinced they are incapable of achieving great things, so they aim for the mediocre.
The level of competition is thus fiercest for “realistic” goals, paradoxically making them the most time- and energy-consuming.
If you are insecure, guess what? The rest of the world is, too.
Do not overestimate the competition and underestimate yourself. You are better than you think.
Unreasonable and unrealistic goals are easier to achieve for yet another reason.
Having an unusually large goal is an adrenaline infusion that provides the endurance to overcome the inevitable trials and tribulations that go along with any goal. Realistic goals, goals restricted to the average ambition level, are uninspiring and will only fuel you through the first or second problem, at which point you throw in the towel.
If the potential payoff is mediocre or average, so is your effort.
The fishing is best where the fewest go, and the collective insecurity of the world makes it easy for people to hit home runs while everyone else is aiming for base hits.
There is just less competition for bigger goals.
Mattias | QuantCraft retweeted
⚠️ Before you chase the SpaceX hype, understand what you're actually buying.
This isn't one company. It's a cocktail of 3 very different assets:
🟢 Starlink — the ONLY profitable piece
$11.4B revenue | 63% EBITDA margin | 10.3M subscribers
This is the real business.
🔴 xAI / X (Twitter) — burning cash fast
$6.35B operating loss in 2025 alone.
Acquired using equity tied to the rocket company itself.
🟡 Rockets / Starship — prestige, not profit
Massive operation. Still not commercially profitable.
Billions invested with no clear return timeline.
───────────────────
This reminds me of the 2008 CDO structure:
Take good assets + bad assets → bundle them together → sell as AAA.
The difference? Starlink is genuinely great.
But the valuation prices the entire cocktail as if it's all Starlink.
───────────────────
📊 The real numbers (from the S-1):
• IPO price: $135/share
• Valuation: $1.75 trillion
• 2025 GAAP net loss: $4.94B
• Accumulated deficit: $41.3B
• Fair value by the numbers: $400–$600B
• Overprice multiple: 3x at minimum
───────────────────
💡 The company is real. The vision is big.
But the price assumes Starship + xAI + orbital data centers
are already successful — they're not.
Don't buy the dream at the price of certainty.
The market will give you a better entry once the hype cools.
Patience is the edge most retail investors never develop.
#SPCX #SpaceX #IPO #Investing
Mattias | QuantCraft retweeted
🚨 BREAKING:
🇺🇸 The House Energy and Commerce Committee just voted 48-1 to advance The Sunshine Protection Act, which would make Daylight Saving Time permanent.
Key details:
-Bill will be attached to the broader Highway Bill in the House
-48-1 vote signals overwhelming bipartisan support
Trump publicly thanked Chairman Brett Guthrie and Rep. Vern Buchanan
-Trump says hundreds of millions of dollars are wasted annually on clock changes including tower clocks requiring heavy equipment
-His framing: "Saving Daylight gives you a longer, brighter Day — And who can be against that"
-Trump has called it "a very nice WIN for the Republican Party"
Saying goodbye to the twice-yearly clock change has been a rare bipartisan dream for years.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio pushed the same bill through the Senate by unanimous consent in 2022 before it died in the House.
The clock-change tradition dates back to WWI as a wartime energy-saving measure.
America may finally be done with it.
Mattias | QuantCraft retweeted
If you stay 100% technical, you will quickly see that news does not matter 95% of the time.
Mattias | QuantCraft retweeted
We have to learn to let the market work and stop trying to work the market.
We are market takers, not market makers.
Mattias | QuantCraft retweeted
Quote of the Day:
"Having been disciplined to exit those positions is probably equally as important to my success as my winning trades. Closed-mindedness, a lack of humility, or stubbornness in the face of unanticipated outcomes can be devastating."
~ Stanley Druckenmiller
Mattias | QuantCraft retweeted
Notice how all of the "groundbreaking" headlines are forgotten in two weeks.
Supreme Court decision on tariffs. Jerome Powell's potential indictment. Citrini ai doom article.
Always feels massive in the moment, like “this changes everything”. Life will never be the same!! But the news drops. Gets some clicks for a couple days/weeks. Disappears. Then onto the next "big news"...
Few examples rn that seem like "this changes everything", but will pass soon:
- iran/usa war
- hormuz
- calls for $150 oil
- jerome powell out
- saas is dead narrative
- stablecoin bear case / genius act
Relax it'll pass...always does. Then back to the show.
Manage risk when attention/uncertainty are peaking, find good assets with good stories, and scale in slowly as the environment improves.
Mattias | QuantCraft retweeted
Bear markets are a breeding ground for fresh opportunities and new leadership.
Embrace the pullbacks because they don’t last forever.
Mattias | QuantCraft retweeted
The real buffer was the oil that was already at sea.
Now that buffer is fading.
We’re moving into active rationing, emergency allocation, and crisis management across most countries outside the US.
The damage to the global economy at this stage is no longer theoretical, it’s structural.
Next comes second-order effects.
Fertilizers, chemicals, plastics, transport inputs, all tied directly to oil.
Agriculture gets hit with a lag...Lower yields. Higher input costs. Tightening food supply.
That’s when it stops being an energy crisis and turns into a full inflationary cycle with social consequences.
This doesn’t resolve quickly.
Even if flows normalize, inventories are depleted, supply chains are dislocated, and pricing psychology has shifted.
Once you trigger rationing behavior, hoarding, and government intervention, you’ve already crossed into a different regime.
We already heard that it would take 6 months+ to regain full output levels from the gulf. Escalation is putting almost all allies in check.
Mattias | QuantCraft retweeted
What it feels like after saying 50 bps instead of half a percent xitter.cf/c0med0rdeb0sta7/status…
Mattias | QuantCraft retweeted
The thought that every single one of us has an invisible clock counting down and nobody knows when it hits zero.
I didn't get this until age 35. Before that, time felt infinite. You waste entire years on the wrong thing. The wrong person. The wrong company. Then one random Tuesday you realize you might be halfway done. Maybe more. No one knows.
Your high school friends are having their second kids. Your parents' friends are dying. That feature you shipped five years ago, well, the entire company doesn't exist anymore.
We all walk around pretending we have time. But the guy who cut you off in traffic this morning....his clock might run out tomorrow. The founder grinding 80-hour weeks...maybe has 40 years left. Maybe 4.
The weird part is knowing this changes everything. Once you see the clock, you can't unsee it. So you stop optimizing for someday. Start shipping today. Text the friend. Build the thing. Take the risk.
The clock's ticking anyway. Might as well make it count.
That's what I realized at 35. Not that time is short. But that knowing time is short is actually the unlock.
It fires me up, maybe you too.