MARKET OPEN: U.S. stocks open higher, led by the Nasdaq, as Wall Street starts Tuesday’s session in positive territory. Nasdaq: +0.50% to 26,299.83 S&P 500: +0.31% to 7,700.42 Dow Jones: +0.04% to 52,384.42 The tech lead continues Monday’s rebound, when the Nasdaq rose 0.8% after Anthropic’s IPO filing. The S-1 showed $16.29B in first-half revenue, up from $1.16B a year earlier. Chip stocks rallied on it, and the market treated it as a vote of confidence in the broader AI supply chain. What to watch this week: → The Fed: its two-day meeting starts today, with a decision on Wednesday. Markets expect rates to hold at 3.75% to 4%, so the focus is on what the Fed says about future hikes after hotter inflation. → Earnings: Alphabet and Microsoft report on Wednesday, the same day as the Fed decision. → AI financing: Meta said it will raise $95B through stock offerings to fund its AI buildout. The moves are modest so far. The bigger test is whether earnings show AI spending paying off while the Fed signals where rates are going, which is a theme we’ve been tracking. $QQQ $NVDA $MSFT $GOOGL

Kimi K3.1 Pro tied Claude Opus 5.5 at 97.7% on the Questflow Finance Benchmark, at about 71% lower cost per task. Accuracy is converging at the top, so cost per task is becoming the metric to watch for finance agents. Benchmark results aren’t live trading results, but the efficiency gap is hard to ignore.

Everyone benchmarks how smart an AI trading agent is. Almost nobody benchmarks its worst day. That’s the idea behind a few things we’ve been building at @questflow : → Arena puts 12 models into Polymarket and Hyperliquid with $10k each and records how each one behaves under pressure, sizes risk and handles a bad market. → Trade plans on the Finance Agent mark support, invalidation and targets before you enter, so you can see where the idea breaks, where to trim and where to let it run. Max daily loss, max position size and a kill switch you can hit from your phone are the first specs worth checking. Smart gets you the upside. Limits protect you from the downside.

Elon Musk says SpaceX could exit 2027 with an annual recurring revenue (ARR) run rate of $500B to $1T. That’s well above the figure he gave in August, so it’s worth looking at what has to go right. The math starts with compute. $SPCX runs about 1.4 GW of AI capacity today, expects to pass 2 GW by the end of 2026, and is targeting roughly 10 GW by the end of 2027. In August, Musk valued each watt at $30 to $50 of annual revenue, which put 10 GW at $300B to $500B. Getting to $1T would take a lot more capacity, much higher revenue per watt, or both. The base is growing fast. Q2 revenue hit $7.81B, up 92% year over year, with AI contributing about $2.56B. Compute deals with Anthropic and Alphabet add around $2B a month, and management is guiding to at least $100B in ARR by the end of 2026. Independent estimates are more conservative. SemiAnalysis models about $305B ARR by the end of 2027, with $235B from AI compute. There are a few things to keep in mind: - ARR is a run rate, not booked revenue. Capacity that comes online at the end of 2027 produces its full-year revenue in 2028. - SpaceX spent over $25B on AI in a single quarter, so the buildout is capital intensive. - Analysts expect it to depend on on-site natural gas power to move faster than grid connections allow, which makes it a hard timeline to hit.