Cheltenham in October. 36 years, 493 races, 4,814 runners. Four things the database says about today's meeting. The road to March is mostly a dead end. Of the 493 October winners since 1990, 212 went back for the Festival and 11 won there. Any October runner, not just the winners, did almost as well once it got there. Age matters in the handicaps. Horses aged five and under win 1 in 9. Ten-year-olds and older win 1 in 22, and just 3 from 160 since 2008. Four of today's 19 Pertemps runners are 10 or older. The yards: Nicholls has the most October winners in the last 10 editions, but 2 from 20 in the last five. Fergal O'Brien, de Bromhead, Keighley and McConnell have all beaten their prices. Fitness and course form look like edges and are already in the price. Seasonal debutants and race-fit horses win at about the same rate. Previous Cheltenham winners win more often, and A/E says the market knows. All four pages below. 30 days free at race.watch

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