The greatest honor of my life: I was decorated by @ZelenskyyUa and in the future I will receive the award (this is the plan) personally from him! I quote from the Ukrainian Presidency website: "DECREE OF THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE No. 556/2023" For a significant personal contribution to strengthening interstate cooperation, supporting the state sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and popularizing the Ukrainian state in the world, I decree: [...] To be awarded the Order of Merit, third degree: [...] HOSSU Radu - volunteer, correspondent, philanthropist, #Romania [...] President of Ukraine V.ZELENSKY 4 September 2023" ---- When on 26.02.2022 I started writing "Night Summaries", I never imagined that somewhere in the future I would get the chance to meet the most wanted man in the world at that time, being number 1 on the FSB assassination list. When I started fundraising in August 2022 where thousands of people donated to help the civilians and military of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, I never imagined that my life would change for the better (self-fulfillment) and for the worse (going through moments absolutely unimaginable for any human) that together we would touch, alleviate and shoulder to save hundreds, maybe thousands of lives. Lives that until February 24th lived in relative peace and wanted nothing more than what we all want: to fulfill their dreams, to raise their children, and their grandchildren, to marry, to love, to travel, to wait for the weekend, for vacation, to curse their boss or whatever. Absolutely normal things. And yet I did it. I still don't realize how much we've accomplished together, maybe because I'm still so connected to the war there. But there are people in Ukraine who write to me and thank us for our help. Misha's team who not once told me that the machines I carried saved their lives. The #Bakhmut special that saved the lives of the firefighters there. Civilians were extracted from Bakhmut during a shelling barrage, one of them getting married and saying "Without Radu and Misha I would not have been alive to marry the love of my life". Thousands of people had weeks to eat in the towns and villages we went through with dozens of tons of food. Hundreds of families over the winter had electricity and heat. Thousands of soldiers will be saved in Oleg Gubal's name with the help of the Mobile Medical Complex built with your donations in his name. We will never know if we saved the future Einstein or the next Marie Curie, but we certainly know that thousands of families will not suffer the loss of loved ones! I did this not for the politicians in Ukraine, not for the parties there, and certainly not for the leaders because it never occurred to me for a moment that I would receive such an award. I did it for those who defend what I believe it is everyone's duty to defend: the international rules that say you can't break down your neighbor's door and take his house by force. It defends the world in which I would like to raise my children. The power of your solidarity has made a difference in the world. You are not too small. There is no "I don't count." There is no "I can't change the world around me". That you gave a like, a share and maybe someone on your list donated 1 euro or 10, it mattered. As I said at TEDxBaiaMare: The power is within you! When I meet President Zelensky to present me with the Order of Merit Class III I don't know. Sometime in the future. I hope in the near future. The feeling is extraordinary. It's something that can't be contained in words, given that this honor comes from the man who had his wife ranked second on the FSB assassination list and yet said, "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition." Thanks to you all! I am honored and touched! #SlavaUkraini!

Starlink and Starshield restrictions for Ukraine were lifted an hour ago. Sources cited by The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump called Musk today to ask him to lift the restrictions. Until earlier, nothing had changed. What does this mean? First and foremost, it means that Ukrainian interceptor drones can once again defend cities against jet-powered Shahed drones (Geran-4 and Geran-5). --- Context: Yesterday, Axios learned that Musk had personally ordered the restrictions. Let's not mistake this for Trump playing the good cop in a bad cop, good cop routine. Starlink is a civilian, privately operated product. Starshield is a military product. Musk's order could not have been implemented without the approval of the Pentagon, headed by Hegseth. Meanwhile, Patriot interceptor missiles are still being denied to Ukraine, leaving it unable to defend itself against ballistic missiles. The ballistic missile early warning system is still not operating at 100% of its previous capacity. --- I think it's obvious to everyone that these restrictions were used as bargaining chips and instruments of pressure against Ukraine, in the context of the US midterm elections and an extremely complicated situation involving Russia. I'm afraid of what compromises Zelenskyy and Ukraine may have had to make to get most of the American systems restored. I hope, perhaps, that no such compromises were necessary. We'll probably find out in the future.

Must read what western companies supply components to russia for their jet powered killing drones.

Trump is not lifting the old sanctions. He is postponing the sanctions under the Graham Act, which he himself signed on September 28. In other words, the law, which had already been significantly watered down after Lindsey Graham's death compared to what it was when he was still alive, was signed by Trump at the end of September and is now being suspended. Now that we've cleared that up, I must point out that postponing the sanctions under the Graham Act is yet another act of betrayal against Ukraine. A few more clarifications: - What happened with Starlink? It was restricted (not shut down), initially limiting connectivity to equipment traveling at speeds of up to 160 km/h, then lowering that threshold to 70 km/h. Then Fedorov (Ukraine's former Minister of Defense) came out and said everything was fine, the restriction had been lifted, and the permitted speed was back to 160 km/h. Except that's like having 100 bucks. Someone steals 50 bucks from you, then another 10. Then the thief gives you 10 bucks back and says, "See? There's no problem anymore," while you're still missing 50 bucks. Musk quickly shifted the discussion to Starshield (the military Starlink infrastructure owned by the US government and operated through the Pentagon) versus Starlink. Except that both systems operating in Ukraine are funded by Europe (with Germany and Poland among the largest contributors). This is actually quite simple, and my conclusion remains unchanged: Trump and Musk have betrayed Ukraine. They have used Starlink (and Starshield) as instruments of blackmail to force Zelenskyy to stop striking Russian oil refineries in the first phase. That first phase is meant to demonstrate that Trump can deliver what Putin wants, thereby opening the door to further deals between the US and Russia in the second phase. - What we're witnessing today is a natural progression for an extremely corrupt American leadership that speaks the language of Moscow's violent criminals far more fluently than the diplomatic language of Europe. At the level of basic human interaction, it is only natural that we now see an America closer to Russia than to Finland. Most likely, this all began with a long-term strategy aimed at driving a wedge between Russia and China at any cost. But even if that was the original motivation, we are now far beyond that point. Putin needs China far more than he needs the US. China has infinitely greater potential to harm Russia than the US does, which means Washington needs to rethink its approach. Except Trump wants to make money for himself. Putin knows this and can help him do exactly that, demanding in return the betrayal of Europe and Ukraine. - Europe is preparing to make another €70 billion available to Ukraine for 2027. In other words, Europe will cover almost the entirety of the remaining funding needs for Ukraine's war budget, estimated at €155 billion. For 2027, Ukraine already has €45 billion budgeted from 2025 (of which €30 billion is allocated to the war effort), and it still needs to secure these additional €70 billion. I'm writing this now because, just as happened with the 2025 aid package, there will be extensive disinformation campaigns designed to manipulate Europeans' perceptions of Ukraine. Once again, we will hear that our pension money has been sent there instead. Nothing could be further from the truth. A Ukraine that holds its ground means fewer Ukrainian refugees in Europe (which is what populists voters want — although their parties want precisely the opposite). A Ukraine that holds its ground means a Russia that does not win and does not drag Eastern Europe back into its sphere of influence. A Ukraine that holds its ground means buying Europe valuable time to accelerate its own reforms. A Ukraine that holds its ground means peace for the rest of us. So let's give them those €70 billion for next year.

Tonight’s security incident in the Black Sea took place on NATO territory! Following the incursions of Russian drones into Poland and Romania (Galați), this is the most serious security incident Romania has faced. The commercial vessel YARA J was struck by drones, most likely Russian, in Romania’s territorial waters. Romania’s territorial waters are NATO territory. In other words, territory protected under Article 5. YARA J is the latest commercial vessel to be struck by Russia in the Black Sea. Over the past 10 days, three other vessels have been hit. So far, the attacks on October 5 and October 13 have left two people dead and another 11 missing in Bulgaria’s territorial waters, which are also NATO territory. In tonight’s incident, no fatalities have been reported, based on the information available so far. As of this moment, Romania has not publicly reacted in any way through its high-ranking officials.

Elon Musk has reportedly restricted Starlink in Ukraine. Serhii Sternenko, an adviser to former Defense Minister Fedorov, wrote about this on Twitter. If true, it is catastrophic. @sternenko says that military equipment lost connectivity when traveling at speeds exceeding 160 km/h. He also points to something that has already been acknowledged internationally: early warning systems have stopped providing information to Ukraine. In other words, Ukrainians did not know that ballistic missiles had been launched toward them, they could not warn the population by activating air raid sirens, and as a result, many civilians were killed yesterday and overnight simply because they were never warned. How does the Ballistic Missile Early Warning System work? A missile is launched in russia. At launch, it produces a thermal signature detected by military satellites. That information is then transmitted to a command and data processing center. From there, the information is passed on to radar systems. The command center calculates the missile's trajectory and potential impact area. The data is transmitted to the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians activate air raid sirens in the geographical areas identified by radar as potential targets. How does it stop working? Trump orders that the information no longer be shared with the Ukrainians. The result: many more civilians die. Returning to Starlink, the problem created by Trump and Musk is not merely the strangling of Ukrainian counteroffensives, in which Ukrainians have achieved considerable success this year (the Velyka Novosilka sector, Operation Vivaldi), by disabling drones traveling above the aforementioned speed. Far worse for the civilian population is, for example, the disruption of interceptor drones. Interceptor drones operate at speeds well above 160 km/h because the targets they must intercept (generally Geran-2, 3, 4, and 5 drones in civilian areas, but also other types of drones in combat zones) can fly at speeds of up to 400 km/h. Practically everything that moves in Ukraine from a military standpoint, as well as a significant part of everything else operating in Ukraine, relies on Starlink. There are no redundant backup systems in the event of a complete shutdown. Restricting Starlink will lead not only to territorial losses, a brutal reduction in Ukraine's ability to defend its military units, and an equally brutal increase in russia's ability to strike Ukrainian targets far more effectively, but ABOVE ALL to an increase in the number of civilians killed and the systematic destruction of critical civilian infrastructure. We are talking about war crimes and crimes against humanity. We are talking about aiding criminals. We are talking about tying a victim's hands behind their back while the murderer does whatever he wants to them. We are talking about children permanently maimed or killed. We are talking about the United States of America facilitating all of this. Such a decision is a negotiating tactic: "If you don't capitulate to russia, I will help them kill your children." That would be the translation of Trump and Co.'s actions. As a supporter of Ukraine, as someone who fears what a potential russian victory there would mean for our entire society, I find myself wondering whether we, those of us on the outside, can still ask this nation to keep resisting. Can we still ask Zelenskyy not to knock Trump's teeth out at their next meeting (considering that Trump is now responsible for aiding and abetting crimes against the Ukrainian people)? The situation is so grave that many books will be written about what is happening during these months. Slava Ukraini!

I'm testing the Russian bots, because traffic from Yandex bots is currently close to zero (check Cloudflare Radar). That's because Ukraine has imposed a ban on them — by firepower. So I'm going to say the following things, which will most likely generate organic, authentic, human traffic, but without the bot traffic. Let's see: * russia is a criminal state; * russia is a terrorist state; * russia is ruled by a criminal regime; * Putin and the entire russian leadership, from 2014 and 2022 onwards, should find themselves inside the courtroom of The Hague Tribunal; * Ukraine is defending itself against all of russia's attacks, pressure from the Trump Administration, and shipments of sophisticated components from around the world, including Europe; * The Ukrainian people are, first and foremost, the ones whom we in Romania — and the Republic of Moldova as well (or especially) — should thank for keeping the russian Army at bay; * The European Union is the best thing that has happened to Romania since the Great Union of 1918; * The United States of America under Donald Trump has become nothing more than an empty shell of the values and principles it championed for decades; * Donald Trump is a convicted common criminal, now also suspected of pedophilia and other forms of sexual abuse against girls and women in connection with the Epstein files; * Elon Musk is an individual who has absolutely nothing to do with ethics or morality, not even remotely. Feel free to add other things that might attract the bots' attention, and let's see whether they're still operating or not.

Elon Musk, 10 hours ago: "Zelensky has gone too far", replying on Twitter to a Trump administration post calling on Ukraine to stop striking Russian oil refineries. This is a message to Ukrainians: not only will we publicly blame you if you continue striking Russian refineries, not only will we try to change how the world perceives you as victims and gradually turn you into the aggressors, not only will we use these lies to lift all sanctions imposed on Russia and reopen trade with them (including military trade), but we will also make sure your people die and that you have no way to defend yourselves. This message is meant to put pressure on the Ukrainian military and government: replace Zelenskyy, or you will die because we will take away your Starlink access. Fedorov, the former Minister of Defence, who managed to convince Musk to shut down Starlink for the Russians, called for the same thing during that strange period when he seemed to have lost his mind. I am convinced he hadn't lost his mind at all, but was acting out of a belief that Trump, Musk & Co. would back him as Ukraine's next president. Starlink is vital to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ukraine's technological edge, particularly evident in its deployment of drones on the battlefield, would be completely crippled without Starlink. Ukraine's dependence on this communications system is enormous. Shutting it down would have a far greater impact on the front lines in the short and medium term than cutting off all financial and intelligence assistance from every single ally combined. Right now, Ukraine, backed by the European Union, is holding its ground against Russia, North Korea, partly China (partly, because a great deal also comes from China to Ukraine), and partly America. What the Trump administration and Elon Musk are doing is called **aiding the perpetrator**. If we were to examine this objectively through the lens of international law, we would find precedents in which similar actions (commercial or political) led to those involved being held accountable and convicted by the International Criminal Court. I have no expectation that international law will be upheld in today's geopolitical climate. However, we have reached a point where it can be argued that these individuals are on the verge of becoming (or may already be) directly or indirectly responsible, through their support, assistance, and encouragement of the aggressor, for war crimes and crimes against humanity. In just the past four days, Russia has killed at least 10 children in three separate attacks (Pryluky, Kramatorsk, and Zaporizhzhia), with the total death toll from these three attacks alone reaching 75 as of the time I am writing this. Under the Rome Statute, these attacks fall into the category of war crimes when considered individually, and crimes against humanity when considered collectively. These attacks against civilians will only increase, just as past statistics have shown they have done every single time Putin, Russia, and Trump have coordinated their actions. I am therefore putting this on record: this new coordination will lead to more civilians being killed in the near future, which brings me to the clear conclusion that the Trump administration and its associates bear at least partial responsibility for these crimes. Every world leader, every head of state, whether an ally of the United States or not, must demand accountability for these actions. Ukraine must receive even stronger support from the other members of the Ramstein Group and the Coalition of the Willing. And for us — Europe in general and Romania in particular — Ukraine's victory must become a top strategic priority. *translation from my own original romanian text and image by ChatGPT

Donald Trump has just called for Zelensky's removal from Ukraine's leadership because Ukraine has continued to strike Russian oil refineries. Donald Trump's escalation is not about diesel, nor is it about American farmers struggling with fuel prices. It's about blaming Ukraine and, as a next step, creating "arguments" to justify lifting sanctions against Russia. Those who believe for even a second that Trump's actions are irrelevant to them should think again. Russia is right next to us. It already shares a border with us (illegally) in the Black Sea, as a result of the illegal annexation of Crimea. If Ukraine falls, Moldova, Romania, the Baltic states — we will all suffer. From even deeper infiltration of our institutions to the export of criminality and falling into Russia's sphere of influence. Nicușor Dan has been warned by all of us to stop licking MAGA's boots. To stay away from the private club called the Board of Piss, to stop distancing himself from the European core — our only hope for collective security, as imperfect as it may be. America today is NO longer a guarantor of Romania's security, nor of NATO's Article 5. Now is the time for world leaders, including our own president, to denounce the lifting of sanctions on refined petroleum products. Trump's decision yesterday violates every standard of common sense and morality. It helps the aggressor while forcing the victim to endure even more suffering. And Trump's explicit demand for Zelensky's removal is the clearest evidence yet of his alignment with Vladimir Putin. Any association with this individual is proof of a lack of morality (spare me the realpolitik arguments — that is not what this is about).

Over the last 72 hours, several events and announcements have overlapped in such a way that our minds, which are built to detect patterns, have started linking them into a single scenario: the imminence of a Russian attack on NATO. I can “boast” that I was among the first, and remain among the few people in Romania, who spoke about Russia testing NATO’s Article 5. At the end of the Second World War, a new World Order was built. The Western civilization part of this World Order was built on the foundations of economic liberalization. Economic liberalization had, as both its foundation and the shield that allowed it to exist, a security pillar called NATO. NATO is an alliance between states whose mission is founded on Article 5. Article 5 is based on trust. At the beginning of 2025, I was trying to warn about how Russia would attempt to test this through attacks below the threshold of a casus belli/an act of war, meaning below the level that would trigger a coordinated response from the Allies, but which would publicly be perceived as an attack on a state. The concept of hybrid warfare is an old one, decades old, and the Russians have refined it without ever hiding from us what it means: erasing the line between war and the absence of war (let us call it peace) through a series of hostile actions, kinetic or otherwise, that destabilize the adversary, freeze its ability to react or slow it down considerably, helping Russia achieve its objective without being drawn into a war. Active Measures, Ideological Subversion, the Little Green Men in Crimea, false-flag operations, etc. The adversary in this case is not Estonia or any other Baltic country, nor is it Romania; it is NATO. The actions are not limited to launching drones that appear to have accidentally entered Allied countries, but also include what I listed above: disinformation campaigns, flooding the information space with falsehoods, creating fractures within the societies of Allied states and directly targeting the “social contract,” citizens’ trust in their institutions. Assassinations, sabotage, kompromat campaigns, cyberattacks, economic and political warfare. The construction of a parallel reality to the one represented by facts and factual truth. If you think I am exaggerating, please consider that there are an extremely large number of people in Romania who do not believe that the war in Ukraine exists. Very many who believe that Putin is justified in doing what he is doing. I am not discussing here how such a reality is constructed; I am merely saying that it is constructed over time and intentionally, through deliberate effort; it does not simply happen because “people don’t believe.” What I have been seeing over the last few days on Twitter, Facebook, and what is beginning to make its way into the mass media looks to me somewhat like a campaign that is creating panic among the population, although the people posting about the various events do not intend to do this; they believe they are merely informing and warning people. Why do I say this? Some of the points presented in lists of alarming events that have gone viral online are either impossible to prove, or they are old and therefore unrelated to the here and now, or they are taken out of context. Examples: E1: “The Russians are preparing 20,000 hospital beds on their northwestern front (their own, meaning in the area bordering the Baltic countries/Finland).” The information comes from Volya, an independent Russian Telegram channel made up of journalists and anti-war activists who are respected and recognized as reliable in most cases. However, if you read their article, you will see very clearly that it is about increasing the capacity of civilian hospitals because the Russians can no longer cope with the wounded coming from Ukraine, something that has been happening for years, while in 2026 alone the Russians built six large hospitals, five of which are already operational, three of them being in European Russia. This news, however, is being associated with a possible invasion of the Baltic countries because the increase in bed capacity will take place in the regions of Karelia, Saint Petersburg, Leningrad, and Novgorod. Where others see imminence, I see continuity with previous projects and anticipation of an increase in the number of wounded coming from Ukraine. E2: “Sweden is warning its citizens about a potential crisis and educating them on how to survive in the event of war.” It is true that this is happening. I looked into whether this is something new, whether it has anything to do with the here and now. Whether it can indicate any imminent Russian action. “In Case of Crisis or War” is a brochure that was delivered by the Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces to every household in Sweden from 1943 until 1991. New editions were subsequently printed and distributed in 2018. This happened again in 2024. Again, we are talking about a completely normal civic education program in Sweden, something that is entirely absent in Romania, which is precisely what makes the news seem shocking. Almost all Nordic countries do this consistently, because they have programs to educate the population in the event of crisis and war. The fact that Finland has civilian bunker capacity for 4.8 million citizens and a population of 5.6 million (of whom approximately 1 million are reservists) does not mean that war is imminent, but that it is considered possible and that it is better to be prepared. I know this sounds shocking to Romanian politicians, but it is completely normal in Finland. E3: “The European Union is warning citizens to stock up for 72 hours, including canned food, water supplies, etc.” It is true that the European Union called for this, except it did not happen here and now, but in March 2025, yet the story is now being recirculated in lists of events supposedly indicating the imminence of war with Russia. In the March announcement, the Commission explained that Europe needs to be prepared for every type of crisis, from natural disasters to cyberattacks and geopolitical crises, including military aggression against EU countries. E4: “The UK Government wants all its citizens to start preparing for severe disruptions to their lives. It wants them to start stockpiling canned food and drinking water, strengthen our civil resilience, and plan for the possibility of war.” Again, it is true that this happened. Except it happened last month, not now, and the authorities explained that this was a normal measure. My opinion is that they are implementing policies in coordination with the European Union in order to increase the resilience of all European states. Aha, so I have nothing to be afraid of, right? Everything is fine, I can live my life just as I have until now, right? No. My theory is that Russia cannot possibly miss the opportunity to attempt the total destabilization of NATO Allied countries. How? I explained it above. When? Fairly soon. At the beginning of 2025, I estimated that it would happen within 18 months. We are roughly there now, but based on everything I read and analyze, nothing makes me believe that something will happen in the Baltic countries in the next few weeks. In recent months, this scenario has been supported by the intelligence services of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and the United States. The reactions of Baltic politicians, of Stubb—the President of Finland—of Donald Tusk—the Prime Minister of Poland—and CIA Director Ratcliffe’s visit last month reinforce my conviction. Macron’s and Merz’s reactions in recent days, as well as Marine Le Pen’s statement today, do the same. I am almost convinced that Russia will attack NATO in one way or another and no, NOT in the way everyone is thinking, meaning an invasion of Narva, Estonia, all the way to the Baltic Sea in order to annex territory. It could happen in Narva, it could be a maneuver operation, but not with the objective of annexing territory. This means that it does NOT require major resources for such an operation. And Russia has the resources it would need for such a brutal test. Just as an example, between 2024 and today, Russia has increased its production of ballistic missiles from 50–70 per year to 1,200. And Shahed drone production has increased from 10,000 per year to 130,000. There is no air-defense system in Europe that can protect you against numbers like these. So they have the resources, but Russia does not need territory; it needs the expansion of its power and influence, the destruction of what they see as the evil empire (NATO led by the United States), and a seat at the table of the superpowers from an advantageous position. Through an incursion limited in time, space, and objectives into the Baltic countries, Poland, or Romania, Russia can destabilize the entire alliance, regardless of how many aircraft, missiles, and submarines we have. There are many possible scenarios: an incursion, or simply sabotage strikes. Political assassinations. Cyberattacks against critical infrastructure. Or all of them at once, with the possibility of denying involvement (“not us, terrorists, hackers, criminals, Ukrainians, others”). Because NATO is a social construct, an agreement between people, an agreement that stands as long as there is trust that it will be honored. If Article 5 is activated and major Allies fumble their response or send their “thoughts and prayers,” then the entire social construct—from trust in Article 5 all the way to the World Order of Western civilization—will collapse like a house of cards. Other social constructs, other arrangements, other alliances, other treaties will take their place. But it will no longer be the same World Order. And a country like Romania, in the absence of this existing architecture, is “destined” for chaos and collapse. Foreign investments in Romania, after the 2022 invasion near our borders, were not made because we have defenses and because we are capable of defending ourselves, but despite our lack of preparedness. They were made because investors know that we are a member of NATO and the EU. That is the only guarantee. If that disappears, the investments disappear as well. And that means economic collapse. Social collapse. Political collapse. These are the issues we need to discuss, and we cannot do so because of the influx of disinformation and manipulation in our information space. These are the issues that should keep us awake at night, not margarine or butter. These, and the related subjects that lead us toward greater resistance and resilience: the rule of law (Justice), education (including civilian preparedness for horrific scenarios), military defense and civil defense (the fight against hybrid warfare, STRATCOM, CNA, ANCOM, DNSC, etc.). The conclusion is that the Russians are not invading this week, nor next week. But they will test us brutally, and soon.

Donald Trump senses that the war with Iran could cost him the November elections, so he is trying a communications spin. A shell game, essentially: it is not the disruption of refined fuel and natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — and now Bab el-Mandeb as well — that is responsible for rising prices at the pump. No. It is the Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. It is a lie, a falsehood, and one that is fairly easy to debunk for those who closely follow what is happening on the international stage. But it is not nearly as easy for people who have other things — equally or far more serious things — to do. So I am going to try to do it now, and I will rely on you to share this information with everyone else. By June 2026, according to a CNN analysis, Ukraine had struck Russian refineries 305 times. The Ukrainians launched the campaign in January 2024, and by March 2024, when they struck the Moscow refinery, 23 strikes had wiped out 15% of Russia’s refining capacity. WTI crude rose from $74 to $79 per barrel. So yes, it is true that the beginning of the Ukrainian campaign coincided with an increase in oil prices. But remember where the price started — and how much it actually rose. Over the same period, however, the price of European TTF natural gas fell from €30/MWh to €27/MWh. After that, WTI prices continued falling, eventually reaching $58.90 on November 6, 2025 — at a time when Ukrainian strikes inside Russia were reaching record levels and more than 25% of Russia’s refining capacity was out of action. Once again: while the Ukrainians were pounding those refineries like there was no tomorrow, the price of oil was the lowest in this entire analysis. A brief aside. During the 12-Day War in June 2025 — when Trump struck Fordow and other Iranian nuclear facilities, which he claimed to have destroyed, and which apparently were destroyed so thoroughly that he later had to start another war over how successfully he had destroyed them — WTI jumped from $62 to $78 per barrel. One month after the war, it was back down to $65 and continued falling until it reached the $58.90 I mentioned above. Now we get to 2026. WTI rose to around $65 per barrel in January. On February 20, 2026, it was trading at approximately $67. Three days before the war with Iran began, merely because of information already circulating in the market and Trump’s idiotic statements, the price had climbed to $75. In other words, in four days Trump managed to drive up the price of oil by roughly as much as it had risen over four months following a Ukrainian campaign involving 23 strikes against some of Russia’s largest refineries. Then the war started. WTI reached $100 per barrel in early March 2026. It simply exploded. European natural gas prices almost doubled, from €33/MWh on February 20 to €55/MWh in early March. In other words, we are paying more for natural gas because Trump started a war with Iran — not because we stopped buying Russian gas. Do you know when oil was at its cheapest this year? June. WTI had fallen to $70 per barrel. And, by one hell of a coincidence, at exactly the same time Russia was suffering its worst fuel crisis, because almost 40% of its refining capacity was out of action following the most intense campaign yet against Russian refining facilities. So when Ukraine was hitting them the hardest, with the greatest volume of strikes and at the highest intensity, the price of oil was at its lowest. Today, with the Strait of Hormuz closed, after the Iran-backed Houthi rebels — who warned in March that they would close Bab el-Mandeb unless Trump ended the war with Iran — did exactly that, closing Bab el-Mandeb and also striking the Saudi pipeline used to transport oil, WTI has reached as high as $107 per barrel. In the chart I made with Claude’s help, the periods of open conflict between the United States/Israel and Iran are highlighted in brown — the colour of the American president. Compare those periods with the spikes in oil prices and see whether they happen to line up. Just a coincidence? Or is Donald Trump lying to us?

Last night, at a military complex in Bulgaria a fire broke out, causing two storage facilities to explode and the blaze to spread to two other ammunition depots. So far, so “good.” It could have been an accident. It could have been some “lunatics.” Who knows. Knowing that just one month ago, on August 10, another incident of this kind took place in Bulgaria, I thought I’d check Bulgarian Reddit to find out more information and additional details. That is how I learned that both incidents occurred at facilities belonging to the same Bulgarian company, EMKO. I also found out that the company is owned by a Bulgarian magnate, Emilian Gebrev. And I later learned — and verified through local media sources — that Emilian Gebrev, his company EMKO, and Bulgaria’s arms industry have quite an interesting history with Russia. In 2011, an EMKO depot exploded, and Gebrev said at the time that the authorities’ investigation had allegedly uncovered an unexploded sabotage device. In 2015, the depots of VMZ Sopot, a major Bulgarian arms manufacturer, blew up. Bulgarian investigative journalists and sources involved in the official investigations later revealed that the incident was linked to a network of six Russian GRU spies. Why were the Russians doing what they were doing? Because VMZ Sopot was supplying weapons to Ukraine so it could defend itself against Russia — in case anyone has forgotten, the war started in 2014. Also in 2015, Gebrev, his son, and another senior EMKO executive were poisoned, and Bulgarian prosecutors charged three Russian GRU operatives in absentia. The alleged motive was the same: EMKO was supplying ammunition to Ukraine. In 2022 and again in 2023, EMKO depots in Karnobat blew up. Today, Bulgaria’s Interior Minister said that he “does not rule out external involvement in these incidents.” Bulgarian President Iliana Yotova said that, against the backdrop of escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as the wave of sabotage incidents across Bulgaria and Europe, she is considering convening Bulgaria’s National Security Advisory Council. Hybrid warfare is real. It produces physical effects. Across Europe. I admit I no longer know what else I am supposed to write to make people understand that hybrid warfare is not some fantasy, not something distant, and not something that exists only in the information space. It is a destabilising phenomenon. It affects every one of us, not just ammunition depots in Bulgaria or elsewhere. The destabilisation of the structures NATO and the EU and of national state institutions, the growth of social apathy, the polarisation of society, and the contamination of the information space with every imaginable conspiracy theory, lie and disinformation campaign all have consequences. They shape how we perceive one another, how we behave, how we act both online and offline, what political preferences we develop and, ultimately, what kind of future we choose for our country.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe was in Moscow yesterday. It is the first visit since November 2021, when the previous director (Bill Burns) was to warn Putin against the invasion. Several scenarios are being speculated about the visit, but what is obvious from what emerges is that Ratcliffe, one of the most "inclined" towards Ukraine among the Trump administration, went to warn Putin not to test NATO. What does this test mean? russia will/would take hostile actions, below the casus belli level, against a European NATO member state, in accordance with the "Gerasimov Doctrine," using hybrid elements of assassination, kompromat, blackmail or sabotage. The targets would be civil-industrial/infrastructure or military, of strategic importance; ... or... russia will/would take hostile action at the level of casus belli against a European NATO member state. The actions would be from a much wider spectrum (land incursion, maneuver operation, air-naval-terrestrial complex, limited drone incursion, etc.) with a time and space limitation, generally carried out following a false flag operation that would provide russia with plausible denial; With the goal? Why would russia do such a thing, especially since it cannot get past Ukraine? Don't you think you're exaggerating? Since 2024 I have written about this type of scenario and receiving many answers such as "you are exaggerating, the russians cannot get past the Ukrainians," I have been responding to this. I have been told that "russia cannot handle with a NATO country." Let's analyze: russia has more strategic military reserves than the active armies of all the Baltic countries combined. russia has military know-how and doctrine and industrial capability and tactical and operational understanding for implementing a drone strike/war and implementing them in combat with classical systems. NATO countries have nothing of what I said above. russia has vulnerabilities and fears to exploit, not territories to conquer in the NATO area. The case of Poland in September 2025 with its 21 drones testing Poland revealed that NATO did not respond uniformly. Romania's 2025-2026 case, with dozens of drones entering the national space, is another case of testing systems, reactions and intelligence gathering and reveals the total lack of preparedness of a NATO state's defense. Poland's case with the exploded Kh-101 missile is another event from which the russians have collected information about the reaction of allies, Polish politicians and beyond. The cases of the Baltic States with Ukrainian drone incursions jammed by the russians specifically to violate NATO airspace is another example. Drone incidents at European airports are from a different spectrum of challenges. A third military drone with explosives was discovered at Leipzig airport yesterday. We are talking about potential loss of life. Industrial sabotage, assassinations and assassination attempts against industrialists and politicians in Europe; GRU/SVR campaign to recruit and operationalise "single-use agents" from European countries. ALL of these actions are part of the hybrid warfare and overlap with what appears to be a "shaping/preparation and ground adjustment" operation for a potential/possible/probable action to test NATO's Article 5. russia calculates cost/benefit on an extremely large scale and my analysis two years ago and last year yielded greater benefits than the costs (for russia). What I think should be remembered is that a NATO hesitation in the event of a Russian action would lead to the transformation of Art. 5 into a relic of history, and the political and socio-economic effects would be never seen before for Europe. If this is why the head of the CIA was in Moscow to stop any russian action against NATO, then I think it is too late. russia needs internal destabilization, it needs to divert Europe's aid from the outside (Ukraine) inwards. It needs to show a lack of unity in case of serious action (as seen as a lack of unity in the level of sabotage/kompromat/airspace violations). Putin cancelled a meeting with hundreds of Sikoviki to meet with the CIA chief. The Kremlin is now denying his arrival. It's really bad.