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Joined March 2011
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Saturday's Full Card as of right now (a lot of these start early): CFB: 𝐖𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐒𝐈𝐍 𝐌𝐋 +𝟏𝟐𝟎 (𝟏𝐮) 𝐎𝐃𝐔 𝐌𝐋 +𝟏𝟐𝟕 (𝟏𝐮) 𝐊𝐀𝐍𝐒𝐀𝐒 +𝟔.𝟓 (𝟏𝐮) NHL: 𝐏𝐀𝐑𝐋𝐀𝐘 +𝟏𝟗𝟒 (𝟎.𝟓𝐮): 𝐁𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐡𝐚𝐰𝐤𝐬/𝐁𝐫𝐮𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐎𝐕𝐄𝐑 𝟓.𝟓 𝐒𝐚𝐛𝐫𝐞𝐬/𝐊𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐎𝐕𝐄𝐑 𝟓.𝟓 𝐎𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐫𝐬/𝐈𝐬𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐔𝐍𝐃𝐄𝐑 𝟔.𝟓 (𝟏𝐮) 𝐒𝐇𝐀𝐑𝐊𝐒 𝐌𝐋 +𝟏𝟐𝟏 (𝟎.𝟕𝟓𝐮) Multisport: 𝐏𝐀𝐑𝐋𝐀𝐘 +𝟏𝟏𝟏 (𝟏𝐮): 𝐎𝐑𝐄𝐆𝐎𝐍 𝐒𝐓 𝐌𝐋 (CFB)/𝐁𝐘𝐔 𝐌𝐋(CFB)/𝐀𝐕𝐀𝐋𝐀𝐍𝐂𝐇𝐄 𝐌𝐋(NHL)
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A few CFB betting angles today: 𝐈𝐨𝐰𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐌𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐖𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐧'𝐬 𝐫𝐮𝐧 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞. A season-ending loss to the team's leading rusher, a backup committee led by Williams, but Iowa's 37-0 and 42-point history against Fickell keeps this from being a clean fade. 𝐍𝐨𝐭𝐫𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐦𝐞'𝐬 𝐧𝐞𝐮𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐥-𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐚 𝟐-𝟓 𝐍𝐚𝐯𝐲 𝐭𝐞𝐚𝐦. Seven straight covers as a neutral-site favorite, 2-0 ATS as a 30.5-point-or-bigger favorite this season, against a Navy team that just surrendered 49 to North Texas. 𝐎𝐤𝐥𝐚𝐡𝐨𝐦𝐚 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞'𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐦𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐈𝐨𝐰𝐚 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞'𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐩𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐝𝐨𝐠. 6-1 ATS and nine covers in ten games vs 0-3 straight up and ATS in Iowa State's last three as an underdog. They are losing by 21.3 points on average, with the 109th-ranked total offense. The only angle where the favorite's form, the dog's form, and the head-to-head all point the same way. The 12-of-13 road losses for Oklahoma State keep it interesting. 𝐎𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞'𝐬 𝟔-𝟏 𝐀𝐓𝐒 𝐫𝐮𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐟𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐧𝐨 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞'𝐬 𝐎𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐀𝐓𝐒 𝐜𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐩𝐬𝐞. The Beavers have covered six of seven with the 4th-best offense in the country; Fresno State has failed to cover in 10 of its last 12 October games. Obviously, the second half of this doesn't mean as much with October games dating back years, but it's still something that doesn't favor the Bulldogs. 𝐎𝐡𝐢𝐨 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞'𝐬 𝐍𝐨. 𝟏 𝐒𝐏+ 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐔𝐒𝐂'𝐬 𝐛𝐫𝐨𝐤𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚 𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞-𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐡𝐦𝐚𝐧 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭. The Buckeyes have allowed 20+ points once all season; USC just put up 239 yards and 7 points at Wisconsin; Fahey makes his first start on the road at night. The under 50s has two-way support instead of a guess.
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Western Michigan has covered in each of its last five games as a favorite against teams from Ohio
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Razore retweeted
Saturday's Full Card as of right now (a lot of these start early): CFB: 𝐖𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐒𝐈𝐍 𝐌𝐋 +𝟏𝟐𝟎 (𝟏𝐮) 𝐎𝐃𝐔 𝐌𝐋 +𝟏𝟐𝟕 (𝟏𝐮) 𝐊𝐀𝐍𝐒𝐀𝐒 +𝟔.𝟓 (𝟏𝐮) NHL: 𝐏𝐀𝐑𝐋𝐀𝐘 +𝟏𝟗𝟒 (𝟎.𝟓𝐮): 𝐁𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐡𝐚𝐰𝐤𝐬/𝐁𝐫𝐮𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐎𝐕𝐄𝐑 𝟓.𝟓 𝐒𝐚𝐛𝐫𝐞𝐬/𝐊𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐎𝐕𝐄𝐑 𝟓.𝟓 𝐎𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐫𝐬/𝐈𝐬𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐔𝐍𝐃𝐄𝐑 𝟔.𝟓 (𝟏𝐮) 𝐒𝐇𝐀𝐑𝐊𝐒 𝐌𝐋 +𝟏𝟐𝟏 (𝟎.𝟕𝟓𝐮) Multisport: 𝐏𝐀𝐑𝐋𝐀𝐘 +𝟏𝟏𝟏 (𝟏𝐮): 𝐎𝐑𝐄𝐆𝐎𝐍 𝐒𝐓 𝐌𝐋 (CFB)/𝐁𝐘𝐔 𝐌𝐋(CFB)/𝐀𝐕𝐀𝐋𝐀𝐍𝐂𝐇𝐄 𝐌𝐋(NHL)
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1
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5,576
2-1 +0.41 units in NHL today including the Devils collab. Kraken sold, but an empty netter Lundell hatty puts us in profitable ground today ✅📈💰
My other NHL: Yes, I have decided to go with the full NHL board tonight... small Friday slate, and nothing too big. 𝐉𝐞𝐭𝐬/𝐏𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐎𝐕𝐄𝐑 𝟔 (𝟎.𝟓𝐮) The Jets aren't just looking to snap their 7-game losing streak tonight; they're also looking for a little revenge after getting smoked 5-1 by this same Panthers team just three days ago. The problem? Winnipeg is coming off a 6-4 loss in Tampa last night and is now playing its third game in four nights. As much as you'd like to think this team is getting closer to breaking out of its slump, there's a pretty good chance tonight turns into a sloppy mess. Florida's whole "crash the net and hit everything that moves" approach is tough enough to deal with when you're fresh, let alone when you're running on fumes. So what's the next best option? Say fuck it, go toe-to-toe with them, and try to turn this into a loose, run-and-gun type of game. I'll be honest, that probably doesn't work out in Winnipeg's favour either. But they've spent the better part of the last week trying to win defensively and still haven't gotten the job done. Yesterday was also the first time in a while we've seen even a little offensive spark from this group. Why not try to build on that and see where it takes them? 𝐊𝐑𝐀𝐊𝐄𝐍 𝐌𝐋 -𝟏𝟎𝟗 (𝟏𝐮) Calgary has started getting a little respect back after putting together a four-game winning streak last week, and against some pretty good teams, too. But getting shut out by the Oilers on Wednesday feels a lot more like what we should expect from this group. Don't get me wrong, they're proving to be more than just a glorified AHL team. There's some actual defensive structure here, a gritty group of players, and some high-end young talent that's being seriously overlooked. But I do think they've cooled off, and we're going to see a team that's a little out of sorts over the next little while. Seattle, meanwhile, is still getting heavily disrespected. I don't think anyone fully trusts this team yet, but I do. Sure, the Kraken could tighten things up defensively more often than not, but Calgary isn't exactly the kind of explosive offensive team that's going to give them fits. Seattle has been a strong offensive team this year, and the biggest thing I like about them is that you never really know who's going to step up and produce. It's tough to key in on specific players or even entire lines when they can get scoring from just about anywhere. They also have so many different ways to put the puck in the net, which is what makes them so dangerous when they start scoring in bunches. I really think the Flames might be in for a long night here. They could be toast.
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777
Easy one ✅💰 put that in the books!
NHL Collab with the pill poppin @1ADayPicks Give him a follow; he's a good NHL account. I discussed insights with him outside of X last season. 𝗗𝗘𝗩𝗜𝗟𝗦 𝗠𝗟 +𝟭𝟬𝟬 (𝟭𝘂) The Devils are the real deal right now. Sure, they understandably took a loss in the second half of a back-to-back in high-altitude Denver, but honestly, who doesn't? Colorado has a 75% win rate in those situations over the past five years. Tonight, NJ gets Hellebuyck back in net, and he's pretty much picked up right where he left off. The team is also clicking on all cylinders, with nearly everyone getting closer to their prime as the season progresses. They also have a full three days off after this one, so I'd expect them to come out with a game plan that leaves nothing on the table. VGK snapped their three-game losing streak against Ottawa, but their early-season momentum has pretty much been gone for close to two weeks now. They've had some rest between games, but the offense is clearly still searching for answers. The middle six has been a bit of a revolving door, with some experimenting around Mitch Marner, while the two veteran centers are being asked to balance defensive responsibilities with generating offense. In turn, a lot of pressure is falling on the top line. I'm sure Jack Hughes and Connor Hellebuyck know their good buddy Eichel's tendencies pretty well, and he's the heartbeat of this Vegas offense. The Knights can absolutely still be an elite defensive team, but I think the Devils might be a little too much for them tonight. NJ looks fired up, well-prepared, and has plenty of versatility up front. It's not often you see this VGK team sitting anywhere close to a pick'em at home, so that alone tells you how seriously the market is taking New Jersey as an opponent. I'm leaning Devils here.
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1
22
950
My other NHL: Yes, I have decided to go with the full NHL board tonight... small Friday slate, and nothing too big. 𝐉𝐞𝐭𝐬/𝐏𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐎𝐕𝐄𝐑 𝟔 (𝟎.𝟓𝐮) The Jets aren't just looking to snap their 7-game losing streak tonight; they're also looking for a little revenge after getting smoked 5-1 by this same Panthers team just three days ago. The problem? Winnipeg is coming off a 6-4 loss in Tampa last night and is now playing its third game in four nights. As much as you'd like to think this team is getting closer to breaking out of its slump, there's a pretty good chance tonight turns into a sloppy mess. Florida's whole "crash the net and hit everything that moves" approach is tough enough to deal with when you're fresh, let alone when you're running on fumes. So what's the next best option? Say fuck it, go toe-to-toe with them, and try to turn this into a loose, run-and-gun type of game. I'll be honest, that probably doesn't work out in Winnipeg's favour either. But they've spent the better part of the last week trying to win defensively and still haven't gotten the job done. Yesterday was also the first time in a while we've seen even a little offensive spark from this group. Why not try to build on that and see where it takes them? 𝐊𝐑𝐀𝐊𝐄𝐍 𝐌𝐋 -𝟏𝟎𝟗 (𝟏𝐮) Calgary has started getting a little respect back after putting together a four-game winning streak last week, and against some pretty good teams, too. But getting shut out by the Oilers on Wednesday feels a lot more like what we should expect from this group. Don't get me wrong, they're proving to be more than just a glorified AHL team. There's some actual defensive structure here, a gritty group of players, and some high-end young talent that's being seriously overlooked. But I do think they've cooled off, and we're going to see a team that's a little out of sorts over the next little while. Seattle, meanwhile, is still getting heavily disrespected. I don't think anyone fully trusts this team yet, but I do. Sure, the Kraken could tighten things up defensively more often than not, but Calgary isn't exactly the kind of explosive offensive team that's going to give them fits. Seattle has been a strong offensive team this year, and the biggest thing I like about them is that you never really know who's going to step up and produce. It's tough to key in on specific players or even entire lines when they can get scoring from just about anywhere. They also have so many different ways to put the puck in the net, which is what makes them so dangerous when they start scoring in bunches. I really think the Flames might be in for a long night here. They could be toast.
5
1
20
2,818
NHL Collab with the pill poppin @1ADayPicks Give him a follow; he's a good NHL account. I discussed insights with him outside of X last season. 𝗗𝗘𝗩𝗜𝗟𝗦 𝗠𝗟 +𝟭𝟬𝟬 (𝟭𝘂) The Devils are the real deal right now. Sure, they understandably took a loss in the second half of a back-to-back in high-altitude Denver, but honestly, who doesn't? Colorado has a 75% win rate in those situations over the past five years. Tonight, NJ gets Hellebuyck back in net, and he's pretty much picked up right where he left off. The team is also clicking on all cylinders, with nearly everyone getting closer to their prime as the season progresses. They also have a full three days off after this one, so I'd expect them to come out with a game plan that leaves nothing on the table. VGK snapped their three-game losing streak against Ottawa, but their early-season momentum has pretty much been gone for close to two weeks now. They've had some rest between games, but the offense is clearly still searching for answers. The middle six has been a bit of a revolving door, with some experimenting around Mitch Marner, while the two veteran centers are being asked to balance defensive responsibilities with generating offense. In turn, a lot of pressure is falling on the top line. I'm sure Jack Hughes and Connor Hellebuyck know their good buddy Eichel's tendencies pretty well, and he's the heartbeat of this Vegas offense. The Knights can absolutely still be an elite defensive team, but I think the Devils might be a little too much for them tonight. NJ looks fired up, well-prepared, and has plenty of versatility up front. It's not often you see this VGK team sitting anywhere close to a pick'em at home, so that alone tells you how seriously the market is taking New Jersey as an opponent. I'm leaning Devils here.
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3,845
SEA @ CGY: the NHL slate's sharpest collision tonight. Seattle is a perfect 8-0-0 when leading after two while Calgary is a perfect 0-5-0 when trailing after two. However, the special-teams mismatch cuts the other way and is the biggest on the slate: Calgary's 29.0% power play (best of these six teams) faces Seattle's 67.6% kill (worst of the six), so Calgary's path back runs through the man advantage.
1
1
14
2,805
Interesting Angles for each CFB game tonight: 𝟭. 𝗨𝗖𝗙'𝘀 𝟴-𝟭 𝗦𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁 𝗮𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗺-𝗰𝗼𝗮𝗰𝗵 𝗕𝗮𝘆𝗹𝗼𝗿: A 9-game, program-defining situational trend colliding with a Baylor team in coaching transition, the only angle where the trend, the venue, and the opponent's circumstance all point the same way. 𝟮. 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗲'𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟰𝟬+ 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁 𝗮 𝗧𝘂𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗲 𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗼𝘄𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝟲𝟭-𝟯: Even a weaker 20.3-point-per-game Tulane offense projects to score here. 𝟯. 𝗦𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲'𝘀 𝘀𝗶𝘅-𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟮𝟵+ 𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝘃𝘀 𝗞𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲'𝘀 𝟭𝟰.𝟵-𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗲: A genuine statistical collision.
2
1
30
9,570
I’ll take this L, but I don’t regret going for the value
NFL Thursday Nighter: (31-24 +13.01 on the NFL season) 𝗣𝗔𝗡𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥𝗦 𝗠𝗟 +𝟭𝟲𝟵 (𝟭𝘂)
1
12
892
L. Not good Chicago, not good
NHL Thursday: 𝗕𝗟𝗔𝗖𝗞𝗛𝗔𝗪𝗞𝗦 𝗠𝗟 +𝟭𝟯𝟲 (𝟭𝘂) There are many games tonight, but not many catch my eye. This one was a dog that did. Yeah, I know a little bit of value has been lost since it opened last night, but as I said before, this Chicago team can be oddly predictable at times, and we have been on 3 of their 4 wins this season. I really think they build off that strong third period against the Kings in their last game. The team looks like it’s starting to play better defensively while building some real chemistry up front with a healthier core. If not for Anton Forsberg looking sharp in the high-danger situations, and a few bad bounces on open nets, that game could have easily seen 5 Blackhawks goals. That was one of their more complete performances, and now they get a Wings team coming off a successful Western road trip. Detroit looked relentless and motivated in Edmonton, but they’ve been pretty inconsistent overall and just are not really a good team right now. Coming home after a road trip could also throw them off a bit, which might make this a good spot to catch a Blackhawks team that should be improving at this point in the season. I think it’s worth taking a shot on Chicago while they still have some value. It might only take a little winning streak and some Bedard hype for that value to disappear.
1
9
889
WTF has gotten into Viktor Arvidsson this year ?
2
11
1,030
𝐋𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭: The lead-after-two theme is everywhere in the NHL tonight : Minnesota (9-0-1) Utah (7-0-0) Washington (6-0-0) Montreal (6-0-1) Tampa Bay, St. Louis, and the Islanders (all undefeated) with a lead While: Columbus (0-5-0) Chicago (0-6-0) St. Louis (0-6-0) Anaheim (0-4-0) have never won trailing after two. First goals carry more weight than usual on this slate.
1
2
17
2,051
To be fair, a lot of this is also just good teams vs bad teams overall, but still worth noting in such lopsided third periods
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233
NHL Collaboration Alert w/@BardownVision (UNDEFEATED SO FAR in our Collabs) There are only a select few people I have in-depth NHL capping discussions with, and Bardown is that select few. 𝗗𝗨𝗖𝗞𝗦 𝗠𝗟 +𝟭𝟯𝟬 (𝟭𝘂) Tonight, we are liking Anaheim for a few reasons. First off, yeah, the Ducks’ recent road trip and first game back home were ugly. They’ve lost 6 of their last 7, with a mix of poor defense and a lack of offensive chemistry. Some of that can be chalked up to experimenting with younger line combinations, which should hopefully pay off down the road. That said, blowing a game against the worst team in the league, who were also riding a 10-game losing streak, after seemingly having it in the bag through two periods might’ve been the final straw for Coach Q. I’m expecting him to pull something out of the hat for this one. The Ducks should come out with a much more complete effort, and I think they might finally find the right line combinations by spreading the talent around to match Buffalo’s depth. Anaheim has also had several days to settle back in at home and get comfortable again, so I’m expecting a full 60-minute effort against a Sabres team that has plenty of potential but hasn’t exactly found its chemistry or structure either. Buffalo has lost 4 of its last 6 and leaned heavily on some lights-out, and likely unrepeatable, goaltending in Tuesday’s win in San Jose. Not only is there good value here, but I also think the Ducks will be the more motivated and better-prepared team tonight.
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4,137
NFL Thursday Nighter: (31-24 +13.01 on the NFL season) 𝗣𝗔𝗡𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥𝗦 𝗠𝗟 +𝟭𝟲𝟵 (𝟭𝘂)
7
1
1
35
4,067
Panthers about as schizo as it gets. If they are on the right side of schizo, this is a solid plus money bet
2
270
The home team owns Cavs vs Hawks matchup: The home team has won six straight meetings between Cleveland and Atlanta (8 of the last 10), and the winner has covered the spread in all 10. Tonight the Hawks are the home team, laying -1.5, with both teams on night two of a back-to-back and only Cleveland traveling.
3
10
3,366
Neither team is rested though, so we’ll see
3
380