By far the biggest area where people use leverage is in buying their house. Most see it as fairly low risk. They view buying land or a house with borrowed money as normal. But buying a house with a mortgage is very much like buying stock on margin.
Of course, since you need a place to live and store your “stuff” (as George Carlin observed), houses are a special situation. You need a house, and you don’t “need” stocks.
That said, my advice is that unless you pay cash—which is how most people bought their houses before the last Great Depression—you should do so with the longest-term fixed-interest-rate mortgage possible. There are tax advantages, and currency debasement is helping to pay off your mortgage. But, at 8%, a mortgage is no longer a gift—even though I expect rates to continue up for the indefinite future. Plus, although most people consider a house an investment (see the four definitions we discussed earlier), it’s really just a long-lived consumer good with some aspects of a speculation. But that’s a different subject.
About the only way I’m involved in leverage today is with the shares of small resource companies. Should the markets go the direction I expect, they offer well over 10-1 returns from here, with no debt involved. On deals with warrants, it’s usually possible to sell the underlying stock after four months, retaining the warrant at no cost for the next two or three years.
Full article here:
Doug Casey on Wall Street’s New 3X Commodity Funds—and When Leverage Makes Sense
internationalman.com/article…
Doug Casey retweeted
In 1999, ABC launched Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? with Regis Philbin.
The show became a national obsession.
Its premise rested on an assumption that needed no explanation: If you won $1 million, you had made it.
Later that year, a contestant reached the final question with one lifeline left.
He used it to call his father.
But he did not need help.
He called to tell his father that he was about to win $1 million.
The call became an instant television moment because America watched an ordinary man cross what felt like the finish line of personal finance.
A million dollars meant freedom.
It meant a house, a secure retirement, and escape velocity from the financial concerns of ordinary life.
In 1999, the “millionaire” label meant something.
However, a generation of currency debasement has hollowed it out since then.
A million dollars is still a lot of money today. It can provide security, flexibility, and a strong foundation. But it no longer represents a clear dividing line between the wealthy and everyone else.
According to official Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, $1 million today has roughly the purchasing power of $497,000 in 1999 dollars.
However, this understates the problem in a big way.
It is important to remember that the CPI is the most politically manipulated statistic in all of government. That is saying something because many government statistics are completely manipulated, but inflation, as measured by the CPI, is perhaps the most manipulated.
The CPI is a basket of prices trying to measure the average price changes for 340 million Americans.
It’s an impossible task because every individual has a different price basket. Consider someone who lives in New York City compared to someone who lives in rural Montana. They have totally different price baskets.
Using the CPI as a measure of price increases for 340 million people is even more preposterous than taking the average temperature across 50 states in the US as a meaningful statistic to determine what clothes you should wear today.
Further, the government gets to cherry-pick what items go in the CPI basket and their weightings. It’s like letting a student grade his own paper.
In short, the CPI is rigged. It is nothing more than misleading government propaganda intended to conceal the government’s atrocious currency debasement.
If measuring currency debasement in CPI is a dishonest measuring stick — and it is — then how do we accurately measure it?
The best option is to measure it in honest money—gold.
Before the adoption of a fiat currency standard, gold had been mankind’s most enduring form of money—for over 5,000 years—because of unique characteristics that made it best suited to store and exchange value.
Gold is durable, divisible, consistent, convenient, scarce, and most importantly, the “hardest” of all physical commodities.
In other words, gold is the one physical commodity that is the “hardest to produce” (relative to existing stockpiles) and, therefore, the most resistant to debasement.
Gold is indestructible, and its stockpiles have built up over thousands of years. That’s a big reason why the growth of new gold supply—typically 1-2% per year—is insignificant.
In other words, nobody can arbitrarily inflate the supply.
That makes gold an excellent store of value and gives the yellow metal its superior monetary properties.
People in every country of the world value gold. Its worth doesn’t depend on any government or any counterparty at all. Gold has always been an inherently international and politically neutral asset. This is why different civilizations around the world have used gold as money for millennia.
When it comes to measuring currency debasement, gold is the mirror of truth.
And when we view the situation through a gold lens, that truth becomes impossible to miss. Gold reveals one of the most important financial trends of our lifetimes.
In 1999, the median American household earned $40,816. At that year’s average gold price of about $279, a full year’s income represented about 146 ounces of gold.
The latest reported median household income stands at $87,460. At a gold price of about $4,200, it buys about 21 ounces.
The paycheck more than doubled in nominal dollar terms. Yet its purchasing power in gold collapsed by about 86%—a staggering decline.
That, in short, is why ABC couldn’t run Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? today.
The show’s title would slap viewers with an uncomfortable reminder: A million dollars no longer means what it once did. Some might begin to wonder why. That question would create problems for the politically connected insiders who benefit most from this rotten system.
In any case, this monetary system governs our financial lives. You need to recognize it, understand it, and take action to protect yourself.
The main lesson is simple: You can’t outrun the money printer by working harder. Your wages will not keep pace with currency debasement. They won’t come close.
The ugly truth is that this dynamic will accelerate and drive down living standards for millions of people.
To keep pace with currency debasement—and outpace it—you need to own the right kinds of assets.
Currency debasement transfers wealth from people who work for dollars to those who own the right assets.
One asset stands out as the fastest horse in the race to outpace the money printer.
We explain what it is—and why we favor it—in my free special report, The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now.
To get your free copy, click below.
internationalman.com/special…
Doug Casey retweeted
The Diamond Collapse—and the Dangerous Myth of “Safe” Assets
The diamond price collapse offers a warning about government bonds and the danger of trusting an asset’s reputation to protect your wealth.
internationalman.com/article…
Doug Casey retweeted
The 10-year Treasury yield is perhaps the most important financial benchmark in the global fiat system, as it drives valuations and market trends worldwide.
It is widely—and erroneously—regarded as the risk-free rate of return.
The 10-year Treasury yield can be thought of as a key barometer of the US dollar-based fiat system—a critical measure akin to its beating heart.
Bond yields move inversely to bond prices. When bond prices fall, bond yields rise.
A rising 10-year Treasury yield signals trouble for the US dollar because it means investors are selling Treasuries, which pushes up the US government’s borrowing costs. That is why the 10-year Treasury yield is a major pain point for the US government.
The 10-year Treasury yield was 3.97% in late February 2026. Now it is around 5.26%, an increase of roughly 129 basis points. 129 bps might not seem like much, but with over $40 trillion in debt and growing, every basis point matters.
At today’s debt levels, every 1 basis point increase in the government’s average borrowing cost adds roughly $4 billion in annual interest expense.
So a 129 bps rise is not trivial—it translates to nearly $516 billion in additional yearly interest costs, materially widening a budget deficit that was already around $1.8 trillion.
We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to keep climbing over the coming weeks and months—until it forces the Fed’s hand.
At that point, the intervention will be sold as “stability,” but the mechanism will be familiar: suppress yields by debasing the currency.
That feedback loop could become one of the defining investment stories of the years ahead.
Doug Casey retweeted
America Looks Richer Than Ever. What Happens When the Fed’s Asset Bubble Bursts?
The Fed’s asset bubble has pushed household wealth beyond income growth, widened the wealth gap, and put decades of paper gains at risk.
internationalman.com/article…
You’ll recall what Mark Twain said many years ago. Something along the lines of “the most dangerous month in the stock market is October. The other dangerous months are November, December, January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August and September.”
And that was before the October crash of 1929, which permanently queered people’s perception of the month.
I tend to look at the stock market from a long-term historical perspective. And by absolutely any parameter, it’s now insanely overpriced and in bubble territory.
But that’s been true for several years, as it powered from one height to the next. So, is there any special reason the bubble should break now as opposed to next month or next year?
One reason it may continue is because the government and the Fed, which prints the money, will do anything they possibly can to prevent a crash.
About 35% of the stock market is concentrated in just the so-called “Magnificent Seven” hyperstocks. They’re betting the farm on AI and data centers. Not only are they deploying all their cash and mortgaging their cash flow, but they’re borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars in addition. That’s on top of OpenAI and Anthropic going public at, presumably, trillion-dollar-plus market caps very soon.
I remain of the opinion that whenever that much money goes into one place that quickly, it absolutely guarantees big problems.
But the biggest problem for the stock market is war. Any of the three ongoing wars on the other side of the world could, and likely will, spin out of control into World War III.
Full article here:
Doug Casey on What Could Shock the Markets Before Election Day
internationalman.com/article…
We’re at the edge of a precipice in many ways.
If something nasty happens this month, I’m not going to be surprised. In fact, I’ll be surprised if something really nasty doesn’t happen before the year is out.
The current diesel and energy crisis is not getting better for a lot of reasons. It’s going to get worse. Much worse. There will be cascading effects throughout the economy.
I expect the Ukraine-Russia war to drag on and the Iran war to heat up after the elections, as Trump has promised.
Of course, after the Republicans lose the elections, Trump will be impeached again. That’s only one of a half dozen reasons why I doubt he will complete his term.
But those are just the obvious problems we all can see.
Meanwhile, black swans the size of Pteranodons are circling.
Full article here:
Doug Casey on What Could Shock the Markets Before Election Day
internationalman.com/article…
Doug Casey retweeted
On February 15, 2006, Congressman @RonPaul delivered a little-known but prophetic speech on the floor of the House of Representatives called “The End of Dollar Hegemony.”
He identified the signal investors should watch for:
“The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros. The sooner the better.”
We discussed this subject with Ron Paul at an investment conference years ago. He stood by that assessment.
His point was simple.
Watch the oil producers.
The day they start moving away from dollars and toward gold—or a monetary system that gives them access to gold—the foundation beneath the dollar-based financial system starts to crack.
We may now be approaching that point.
Now we have to ask ourselves, what’s the most important thing about a person?
His IQ? His education? His parents and background?
Of course those things are important, but they’re a relative distraction.
The most important thing in sizing up a person is his morality, his character, his sense of ethics, and what he believes is right and wrong.
If someone self-identifies as a socialist, communist, a Peronist, a progressive, a Democrat, or an effective altruist, I suggest you walk the other way.
The most dangerous kind of criminal is one that finds a philosophy to rationalize and justify everything he does as a positive moral good.
Good people result in good business. Bad people give bad results.
If someone lacks critical thinking skills, a basic moral core, or doesn’t acknowledge property rights—don’t walk, run.
The end result of theft is economic disaster, personal unhappiness, and social discord.
Full article here:
Doug Casey on Effective Altruism: Who Really Benefits From “Doing Good”?
internationalman.com/article…
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Could Israel and the US Nuke Iran?
Faced with the bleak prospects of a successful ground invasion, the US or Israel could resort to the ultimate weapon: nuclear bombs.
Iran understands that possibility and has spent decades preparing its government and military to survive attacks on its leadership and command structure. The threat of a nuclear strike would also give Tehran an overwhelming incentive to acquire its own nuclear deterrent before its enemies could destroy it.
Russia and China would also have strong incentives to prevent the US or Israel from crossing the nuclear threshold against Iran. They could respond by extending security guarantees, deploying forces, or taking other steps designed to deter an attack.
The danger goes far beyond Iran.
If the US or Israel used nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear adversary, they would shatter a taboo that has held since 1945. Other nuclear powers would have to reconsider the assumptions underlying their own deterrence strategies.
Could Russia conclude that nuclear weapons had become legitimate tools of war in Ukraine or Europe? Could China reach the same conclusion over Taiwan? What would it mean for India and Pakistan?
We discussed this risk on a private call with a former US Army Special Forces veteran who has extensive experience with the region.
His concern was that once one side crosses the nuclear threshold, nobody can guarantee where the escalation ends. Nuclear powers facing the possibility of further strikes could confront a “use it or lose it” calculation over parts of their arsenals.
That is the problem with the idea of a “limited” nuclear war.
The people who start one do not get to decide where it ends.
Using nuclear weapons against Iran in the hope that the conflict would remain contained would amount to rolling the dice with civilization itself.
We do not consider that the base-case scenario. Mutually assured destruction still gives the major nuclear powers enormous incentives to avoid crossing that threshold.
But the possibility matters because the consequences would dwarf every other geopolitical risk.
And even a nuclear attack would not guarantee the outcome Washington or Israel wants.
Iran covers roughly 1.6 million square kilometers—about 40 times the size of Switzerland—with mountain ranges that provide natural protection and strategic depth.
A nuclear strike could destroy military installations, command centers, and cities without eliminating every element of the Iranian government or its ability to retaliate.
Any surviving Iranian forces would have powerful incentives to inflict as much damage as possible before losing that capability.
Israel’s nuclear complex at Dimona would represent an obvious potential target. Iran could also target the vulnerable infrastructure that keeps the Gulf monarchies functioning: refineries, ports, pipelines, power plants, and desalination facilities.
Even the use of nuclear weapons would not guarantee that the US and Israel could eliminate Iran’s ability to threaten the regional order. Iran could survive with enough military capability to inflict catastrophic damage on Israel and destabilize Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf monarchies.
And if those monarchies fall—or conclude that Washington can no longer protect them—the consequences would reach far beyond the battlefield.
The petrodollar system itself could become another casualty.
In that sense, Iran does not need nuclear weapons of its own to possess a form of strategic deterrence. Its ability to threaten the infrastructure underpinning Israel and the Gulf states gives it the potential to produce unconventional consequences with conventional weapons.
That is why we think Iran will retain substantial leverage over Hormuz regardless of how much damage the US and Israel inflict on the country.
And if that happens, the consequences could shake the foundations of the US-led world order.
Doug Casey retweeted
The Permission Grid: A Blueprint for a Permanent Slave Class
Digital identity tied to internet access, carbon tracking proposals, and the removal of cash, privacy tools, and VPNs form the architecture of permission-based participation.
internationalman.com/article…
It’s said that war is nature’s way of teaching Americans geography.
It can now be said that diesel is another way of teaching them geography—plus chemistry. And they’re getting a graduate degree in it right now.
The wars in the Ukraine, Iran, and now Houthiland have doubled the price of fuels in the last six months. And I believe they’re going higher.
I continue to be long mining stocks, oil and gas stocks, uranium stocks, and commodities in general.
Energy stocks are only about 4% of the S&P. In 1980, they were about 30% of the S&P. And mining is about 1% of the S&P. In the past, it’s usually been about 8%.
These areas are historically very, very cheap.
A new trend is in motion, and I expect it will stay in motion for at least a couple more years.
Remember the old market rule: Be right and sit tight.
You don’t have to be wild and crazy at this point. Resource stocks should multiply your money several times just in the next few years.
Full article here:
Doug Casey on the Diesel Crisis—and What It Means for the Economy
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Doug Casey retweeted
Investing in rare earth elements (REEs) is not straightforward.
Some large multinational mining companies produce small amounts of REEs. But their exposure to the industry is insignificant. They’re nowhere close to pure REE plays.
Investing directly in the underlying elements is not practical for the average investor either.
The best way to get exposure to rising REE prices is to invest in shares of REE-related companies. Unfortunately, there isn’t a large menu of quality companies.
Most publicly traded companies producing REEs are listed in mainland China, making them difficult for outside investors to access, often with opaque financials.
Further, the US government could decide to sanction or somehow restrict investment in Chinese stocks—as it did with Russian equities in the wake of the Ukraine war, which are still frozen to this day. That’s a big risk to individual Chinese REE stocks, even if you could find a way to access them.
The REE companies listed outside China are also vulnerable because they must compete with Chinese counterparts that benefit from subsidies and other support from Beijing. China has bankrupted foreign REE companies by driving prices down before, and it could do so again.
In short, REE stocks—Chinese and non-Chinese—carry a high level of risk.
That’s why a broad, diversified approach is best. It allows investors to capture the tremendous upside potential of REEs and strategic metals while minimizing the significant risks of investing in any individual company.
Full article here:
The Rare-Earth Arms Race—and How Investors Can Position
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Doug Casey retweeted
Why the AI mania could punish technology investors while rewarding the owners of the scarce energy and infrastructure beneath it.
internationalman.com/article…
De Tocqueville said: “The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.”
I’d say that day has arrived.
Trump’s $5000 “dividend” is an overture to a guaranteed annual income.
This is genuine Bread and Circuses stuff.
The state already controls most aspects of citizens’ lives through its taxes, regulations, and money creation. Direct payments from the government put another nail in the coffin. The idea of America is being buried before our eyes.
Those who believe that the Republicans will save the day if they win in November are worse than naive. I’d say they’re stupid. I define stupidity as an unwitting tendency to self-destruction.
Like Trump, the Republican Party has no guiding morality or principles. Their only redeeming characteristic is that they’re not as bad as the Democrats.
But maybe they’re even worse because, by pretending to be capitalists, they give capitalism a bad name.
Full article here:
Doug Casey on Trump’s $5,000 Checks and Buying Votes With Printed Money
internationalman.com/article…


