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My plan (updated):
Have 80% in growth (Bitcoin & AI/robots) and 20% in safety for peace of mind.
Safety could be cash, gold, land, S&P 500, Mag7, things like that. Just to hedge the possibility that something goes wrong with my growth bets.
For Bitcoin:
Spot Bitcoin is always my base.
BTC Treasury company investments have the sole purpose of outperforming Bitcoin.
Every 30% rise (in BTC terms) I take 10% off the table.
I rotate the profits into spot BTC, Tesla, or intermediary vehicles like BITC.
I will carefully observe pairs like TSLA/BTC and TSLA/MSTR to rotate between the Bitcoin and the Tesla ecosystem at opportune times.
For AI/robots:
My main objective here is to ride the Tesla wave.
I will carefully observe pairs like TSLA/BTC and TSLA/MSTR to rotate between the Bitcoin and the Tesla ecosystem at opportune times.
Leverage & trading philosophy:
I will use up to 20% of my growth capital for aggressive bets.
This might be leverage, or more aggressive pair trading.
This is very risky, but has the chance to rocket fuel my portfolio.
Most of the time this will be less than 10% of my capital.
Once it‘s above 20%, I start trimming to keep it below 20%.
Entry and exit philosophy:
My general principle is to use the 30/10 model. Every 30% increase I take 10% off the table.
10% of the current value in fiat or BTC, not the share count. So that way my nominal stack keeps growing and I can do more than just 10 tranches on the way up.
In extreme greed phases I may go down to 40-50% growth. But probably not less.
In extreme fear phases I may go up to 85-90% growth. But probably not more.
I don‘t feel confident to time the market.
The beauty of the 30/10 principle is that you can automate most of your decision making.
Also, you do all moves in multiple tranches. Scale in, scale out. I try to avoid all in and all out moves.
For buying, I do the reverse. Every 30% drop I deploy 10%.
None of this is an exact science. There will be exceptions. In extreme greed phases I may sell more than 10%, and in extreme fear phases I may buy more than 10%.
Psychedelic therapy:
My main goal of growing my capital stack is to fund psychedelic therapy, to help to heal the world.
So at one point, I will start allocating a portion of my capital towards this goal, and then grow this over time.
My goal is to help heal thousands and hopefully hundreds of thousands of people.
Ragnar retweeted
People are buying FSD with a car attached, not the other way around
Tesla has just released its Q3 earnings results.
Highlights:
• EPS (non-GAAP): $0.48 (vs. $0.45 est)
• Revenue: $28.05B (vs. $28.3B est)
• Adjusted EBITDA: $3.90B
• Active FSD Subscriptions: 1.74M, up 67% YoY from 1.04M
• Net income (GAAP): $787M
• Free cash flow: $1.53B
• Capex: $4.73B
• Cash & marketable securities: $45.45B, up 9% YoY
Ragnar retweeted
Great progress by the Tesla team!
Q3 Shareholder Update → ir.tesla.com
Highlights
– FSD Supervised attach rate grew to over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in NA
– Unveiled the next-gen Roadster
– Record deliveries in Canada, Australia, Japan & Taiwan
– Tesla Semi now in volume production. Top variant can go up to 500 miles at a full 82,000 lbs while achieving efficiency of 1.7 kWh/mile – about a third of the energy a comparable diesel truck burns for the same load
– Ended the quarter with the largest backlog for our passenger vehicles in 4 years!
FSD Supervised
– 4 new approvals since Q2 (Croatia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia)
– FSD is now live in nine EU countries & used by over 100,000 customers logging more than 160 million kilometers since initial approval
Robotaxi
– Deployed Cybercab into our Austin fleet
– Hit nearly 2 million cumulative unsupervised miles, 8x growth in the quarter
– Austin service now runs 6 am to midnight, with wait times continuing to come down as we add cars & improve the orchestration algorithms
– Added Grok to Cybercab with Grok Bot & Connectors, letting you interface with your inbox, calendar, files, chats and tasks, all by voice.
Transport, office & living room in one
Robotics
– Started production of @Tesla_Optimus on our high-volume lines in Fremont.
These are the first production-quality bots we've built, proving that the current manufacturing process for Optimus is suitable for a commercial product
SI Compute
– On track for 400 MW of training compute by year end, feeding both vehicle & humanoid autonomy
– Austin Fab construction continues, equipment commissioning planned for 2027
Battery
– Battery supply is still the limiter on how fast we ramp vehicles globally, so we're expanding on every front: pack capacity in Berlin, cathode and lithium refining in Texas, LFP cells in Nevada
– Shipped the first Megapacks built entirely with our own LFP cells
– Increasing 4680 output to support ramp of Cybercab, Semi & Model Y
Energy
– Megafactory Texas is up & running, with Megapack 3 production started
– Highest-ever order rate & backlog for energy storage
Grid constraints & power availability are making Megapack the answer for SI infrastructure demand: it excels at supplying large data center loads, smooths out demand spikes, helps new projects meet grid connection rules & makes the grid itself more stable
All with less local fossil fuel generation
Supporting Infrastructure
– Added 2,100+ net new Supercharger stalls, up 14% year over year
We‘re still in beautiful Fat 60 territory all around.
Don‘t fuck this up.
The Ragnar Fat 60 Method.
I have enough life experience to know I will rarely catch the exact bottom or the exact top.
So I no longer waste energy trying. I focus on the fat 60% in the middle instead.
Didn't catch the $60K bottom on Bitcoin? Who cares. Buying below $90K is the Fat 60.
Didn't catch the $7.02 bottom on ASST? Who cares. Buying below $30 is the Fat 60.
Didn't catch the $337 bottom on TSLA? Who cares. Buying below $600 is the Fat 60.
You get the point.
Let everyone else fight over the bottom 20% and the top 20%.
I rather spend my time in nature than burn my waking hours trying to time the market perfectly.
Be happy with the Fat 60.
Fun fact:
🇺🇸 My cost basis is exactly $17.76 🇺🇸
That‘s a good sign, right? 😆
@ColeMacro @mikealfred
My single largest $ASST position is back at a clean $1M in unrealized gains.
And the bull is only just beginning.
Buckle up.
Ragnar retweeted
if you are a TESLA shareholder, please vote here:
Are you - in principle - favorable of a merger with SpaceX?
(of course depends on conditions, but that's not the question here)
93%Yes
7%No
8,994 votes • Final resultsARK Invest predicts a $13 trillion to $20 trillion market cap for $TSLA in 2031.
So basically a clean 10x.
I take it.
What could @Tesla be worth in 2031? ARK’s long-awaited valuation just dropped.
ark-invest.com/articles/valu…
Here‘s the original news report on the 1987 stock market crash.
The market corrected 17% from a high in August going into October 1987.
And then on „Black Monday“ fell another 22% in a single day.
It also shows that the reasoning behind such crashes is always similar. Fears of inflation, the economy etc.
Yet since the lows in 1987, the market is up 34x until today.
Lesson: don‘t get shaken out.
Here‘s the 7 minute video: youtu.be/0_8YEglCFdU
It‘s time to raise the $STRC dividend to 12.50%.
Strategy has already almost spent $2 billion on buybacks and wants to spend $1 billion more.
We have been below par for more than five months now.
If, after more than five months of $STRC not trading at par, now is not the time to raise the yield, then when?
What other conditions need to be met for the yield to be increased?
It is a variable rate product and Strategy's own $STRC page says the rate is adjusted monthly to encourage trading around its $100 par value.
I have not received an adequate response to any of these questions.
Key Metrics of Bitcoin Treasury Companies – October 19, 2026:
$MSTR vs. $ASST
Strive continues to perform strongly. Turns out there is a second best.
Follow me @RoaringRagnar to not miss any updates.
Key Metrics of Bitcoin Treasury Companies – September 28, 2026:
$MSTR, $MPJPY, $ASST
Strive continues to be the only company with a measurably accretive common share ATM program, high amplification (53.2%) and high BTC Yield (59.9% YTD).
BTC Yield of Strategy continues to bleed, closing Q3 with -11% and YTD -3.7%. I expect them to get STRC back to par in Q4, which should improve their metrics considerably.
The Q3 BTC Yield at Metaplanet includes a 8.8% one-time effect from the partial cancellation of the 10th series options.
Follow me @RoaringRagnar to not miss any updates.
Strive has deployed the remaining funds from the warrant exercises and added 1,223 BTC last week for a total of 4,045 BTC.
Key metrics:
- BTC reserve: 36,818 BTC (+12.3% WoW)
- Amplification: 46.1%
- BTC Yield YTD: 70.4%
$SATS IPO proceeds settle tomorrow, so expect another large purchase this week.
Only 7,183 BTC to go until Strive is the 2nd largest publicly traded Bitcoin treasury company.
Ragnar retweeted
“The only things that will scale to incredible size (K2 and beyond) economically are super intelligence, robots, solar power and mass to space.”
A big reason why SpaceX and Tesla ought to merge. Super intelligence and robots might seem separate now but over time they will combine and become super intelligent robots. Optimus needs the best super intelligence. Tesla + SpaceX will have the best chance at winning at super intelligence and super intelligent robots.
Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value.
The only things that will scale to incredible size (K2 and beyond) economically are super intelligence, robots, solar power and mass to space.
And, of course, if you have the first two, the rest will follow.
But Roadster is super cool, so we’re doing it anyway.
Great post by $ASST CEO.
I like the stock.
I use long-term money-supply trends as an important factor in assessing the cost of capital we should be willing to underwrite to amplify Bitcoin. We’ve covered in depth why Amplification Ratio is the key determinant of Strive’s ability to outperform Bitcoin, and why cost of capital matters less. I hope this historical framework, viewed alongside Bitcoin, helps those seeking a deeper understanding.
Scarcity has consistently outperformed debasement over the past 55-plus years. Gold has compounded faster than M2 in every period shown: 9.0% vs. 6.7% since 1970, 9.5% vs. 6.3% since the GFC, and 18.3% vs. 6.5% since COVID. Bitcoin is digital gold, a superior store of value whose emergence remains in its early stages. It should outperform gold as it matures. Our thesis depends on long-term monetary debasement continuing. Our believe is the trend is unbreakable, and as the debt crisis continues to worsen, the outperformance of scarce assets will perpetually accelerate (not decelerate) relative to the dollar in CAGR terms vs historicals.
If you accept that premise, as we do, the only challenge becomes building and sustaining a high Amplification Ratio without blowing up. It sounds simple, but it is extraordinarily difficult. I don’t believe most investors understand nor properly value the moat Strive has built around high Bitcoin amplification with high liquidity, and I don’t expect most to recognize it until Bitcoin makes sustainable new all-time highs.
The consensus investor remains fixated on the cost of capital and fiat cash flows. That is understandable, but it means picking up pennies in front of the debasement steamroller. When you truly internalize the principles of a Bitcoin standard, the focus becomes crystal clear: be maximally and perpetually short dollars and long Bitcoin.
$ASST $SATA $SATS
Elon: "Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value."
Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value.
The only things that will scale to incredible size (K2 and beyond) economically are super intelligence, robots, solar power and mass to space.
And, of course, if you have the first two, the rest will follow.
But Roadster is super cool, so we’re doing it anyway.
1,400 stocks are down 70%+ from their 52-week highs.
Pretty incredible actually, considering the indexes are almost at all-time highs.
