Stocks & Stories | Turning every page
Joined January 2025
- Tweets275
- Following357
- Followers1.1K
- Likes749
Pinned Tweet
$OMC reports Oct 22.
Pre acq, OMC was doing $1.5B FCF, IPG $1B. $2.5B combined. Subtract $120MM from divestitures = $2.38B run rate.
2026(e) cost synergies $900MM. Est. cost to get them $250MM. Assume 60% of $650MM savings drops to bottom line (FCF) = $390MM on top of $2,380.
Rockwood Notes retweeted
The master biographer reflects at 91. The Robert Caro interview.
0:00:00 – How Caro gets people to talk
0:05:03 – Does America need a little more Moses today?
0:12:42 – Moses the young idealist
0:17:57 – Watching Moses lose power
0:24:01 – Did Moses realize he was changing?
0:27:53 – Building during the Great Depression
0:32:51 – The threats and promises of Lyndon Johnson
0:36:08 – Could Kennedy have passed Johnson’s laws?
0:41:00 – Getting a book down to one sentence
0:46:21 – All the material that never made it into the books
0:52:59 – Loneliness
$MCG.L +12% today on firm offer. 1H27 expected close.
$MCG.L 46p non-binding cash offer this AM from Autobuses de Leon, which is owned by Asterion and CMC, which is Cosmen family firm that already owns 26% of MCG.L. Stock at 39.5p.
Company was already monetizing assets to pay down debt. Family had been holder for 21 years.
Anyway I’m trying to convince him to sell everything and buy $OMC and then show me in another decade.
Rockwood Notes retweeted
“Cyclicals are like blackjack: stay in the game too long and it’s bound to take back all your profit.”
Peter Lynch
Have been eager to read this one.
Was revisiting my old $RIG thread.
Rates were close on the short end of the curve, but assumptions ended up being too optimistic, especially margins. OTOH, capex was a lot lower.
My first members-only special situation closed today. $PERF paid $2.00 cash. +3% in 9 days from publishing (SPY -1%). I expected it to close in early November, so I’ll take it.
The write-up is now free to read:
rockwoodnotes.com/members-on…
Posted 3 members-only special situations past week. One US-listed, two int’l, three industries.
If they close, $4k in each could cover cost of rockwoodnotes.com membership.
If they don’t close, well…you know.
Will make public after they play out.
Not investment advice
$OMC another quarter of organic top line growth, profits and margins going up, shares outstanding going down. Synergies on track. Boring. Predictable. Resilient. ~6x 2028e FCF.
circlace (5029.T) being bought for ¥2,020 per share cash. Board recommending shareholders sell. Two major shareholders (63% of shares) have agreed. Last close before announcement was ¥950.
Big premium to a not cheap-looking stock.
Reminder, rockwoodresearch.com is a free website with event monitor, insider transactions, 13-f's etc. No paywall.
Putting out some updates to reduce errors / improve summaries.
If you have suggestions (looks, features, bugs etc), lmk. Or maybe we all just use Claude now.
Some things I’ve been looking at recently:
$AAME trades @ ~5x (2025) EPS. 0.25x TBV. Bad corp gov. Thought it might go dark but just filed 2025 10k/a. Own minuscule amount for fun < $1.20/sh.
I did post a few members-only special situations I thought were attractive. One is about finished now.
$OMC reports Oct 22.
Pre acq, OMC was doing $1.5B FCF, IPG $1B. $2.5B combined. Subtract $120MM from divestitures = $2.38B run rate.
2026(e) cost synergies $900MM. Est. cost to get them $250MM. Assume 60% of $650MM savings drops to bottom line (FCF) = $390MM on top of $2,380.
And, of course, my largest holding is $OMC, which I call my narcan that keeps me from buying worse ideas (like everything I just tweeted about).
Looking forward to results tomorrow and stock continuing to go +/- $10 around $80 for eternity.
$OMC reports Oct 22.
Pre acq, OMC was doing $1.5B FCF, IPG $1B. $2.5B combined. Subtract $120MM from divestitures = $2.38B run rate.
2026(e) cost synergies $900MM. Est. cost to get them $250MM. Assume 60% of $650MM savings drops to bottom line (FCF) = $390MM on top of $2,380.