Freelance journo working on security & geopolitics in MidEast & South Asia. Bylines: Newsweek, Spectator, Nikkei Asia, AJE, Prospect et al. RT ≠ endorsements.

Turkey
Joined December 2012
The Taliban takeover has not been good for Pakistan. Drug-trafficking from Afghanistan has increased under Taliban rule, my new piece shows, with frequent large seizures of opiates and crystal meth, the latter feeding a domestic 'ice' epidemic. atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/so…
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Salman bin Abdulaziz (Saudi MOD), Asim Munir (Pakistani CDF) and İbrahim Kalın (Director of the National Intelligence Organization of Turkey) arrive to meet Abbas Araghchi (Iranian MoFA) and Mohsen Rezaei (SNSC secretary). Via @mhmiranusa
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The @kbsalsaud visit to Tehran is no ordinary diplomatic gesture. His seniority and proximity to the Saudi leadership send a powerful signal. Riyadh is investing serious political capital in dialogue with Iran, seeking to contain escalation and create a credible diplomatic path out of the crisis.
يرأس صاحب السمو الملكي الأمير خالد بن سلمان بن عبدالعزيز آل سعود، وزير الدفاع، وفد المملكة للاجتماعات التي تستضيفها العاصمة الإيرانية طهران اليوم بين دول اتفاقية مكة للدفاع المشترك مع المسؤولين من الجمهورية الإسلامية الإيرانية. وذلك بمشاركة المشير/ عاصم منير، رئيس أركان الجيش الباكستاني، والسيد/ إبراهيم قالن، رئيس الاستخبارات التركية، وسيلتقي ممثلوا دول اتفاقية مكة للدفاع المشترك فخامة رئيس الجمهورية الإسلامية الإيرانية مسعود بزشكيان، ومعالي الأمين العام للمجلس الأعلى للأمن القومي محسن رضائي. وتأتي الزيارة في إطار استمرار جهود دول اتفاقية مكة للدفاع المشترك لخفض التصعيد بين أطراف الأزمة الحالية وتشجيع الحوار والحلول الدبلوماسية، ودعم جهود الوساطة التي تقوم بها دولة قطر وجمهورية باكستان الإسلامية، والتأكيد على الدور المحوري لدول اتفاقية مكة في استتاب أمن المنطقة واستقرارها والعمل مع كافة دول المنطقة في سبيل تحقيق ذلك الهدف.
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Rupert Stone retweeted
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won a historic fourth term, the country's electoral court said, in a shock result that defied polls, precedent and global anti-incumbent sentiment reut.rs/4i6Nc9x
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Rupert Stone retweeted
Visibly distraught Queen Rania of Jordan consoling families of the victims of the church attack in Karak.
الملكة رانيا تواسي ذوي شهداء الوطن في قرية حمود بالكرك #الأردن #هنا_المملكة
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Rupert Stone retweeted
Fertilizer through Hormuz has dropped to zero. No fertilizer cargoes crossing the strait in September or October. Before the war, about 20% of the world’s traded nitrogen fertilizer went through it, Fertilizer Daily reports. The Gulf also supplies about half of the world’s traded sulfur. Hear me out: urea isn’t the problem. China raised its nitrogen exports about 47% and the US about 60%. By the end of August urea was back to its January price, IFPRI data shows. Sulfur is the problem. It has more than doubled, to above $1,000 a tonne, and phosphate is up 25–30%. You need sulfur to make phosphate fertilizer. Mosaic has idled two Louisiana plants, and India’s fertilizer subsidy bill could pass 3 trillion rupees, against 1.71 trillion budgeted. Oil found other ways out of the Gulf. Sulfur hasn’t. source: World Visualized
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Rupert Stone retweeted
How accurate was Carl Sagan’s 1995 prediction about America? “I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time — when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.”
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Rupert Stone retweeted
Lookit man, I don't blame anyone who says "the country is too polarized for a >D+9 GB" because they either didn't watch/remember '08's fundamentals/data. I sure wasn't (I was 9). But the President's approval is Bush-level. Economic sentiment is low. There's a deeply unpopular war in the Middle East. We're seeing a large turnout differential in a lot of states in EV and LV modeling. In 2018, President Trump was only -7. He had a great economy, and a polarizing Supreme Court nomination to excite the base. He ain't got any of that (-44 with Independents currently). You better start believing in 2008 stories, because you're in one.
In the September update to the @Gallup party id series, Democrats enjoy their largest partisan advantage since July 2008.
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“If the current coalition returns to power with the same policies, and Democrats take the White House in 2029, this financial warfare campaign against Israel is inevitable.”
Benjamin Netanyahu has done much for Israel over a long career and deserves to be remembered as one of its most consequential leaders. I particularly admire his leadership against Iran’s regime and his economic reforms that helped unleash Israel’s technology boom. But his failure to grasp the potentially devastating threat of U.S. financial and economic warfare against Israel—and his faith in a “resistance economy” as the answer—are deeply troubling. I say this as someone who helped design the Iran sanctions playbook over more than two decades and remains passionately committed to defending democracies like Israel, Taiwan. Ukraine and others. I know firsthand the power of these weapons. If the current coalition returns to power with the same policies, and Democrats take the White House in 2029, this financial warfare campaign against Israel is inevitable.
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NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos 📊Labour on 32% with a lead of +8 – the largest Labour lead Ipsos have recorded this parliament 📊Conservatives take second place the first time since June 2025 📊Reform UK down 3 points and Greens down 5
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Iran has resumed direct flights to Afghanistan through its national carrier, Iran Air, restoring services from Tehran and Mashhad. According to Iran’s Ministry of Roads and Urban Development, flight IR818 departed Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport for Kabul at 4:45 a.m. on October 23. Services between Mashhad and Kabul have restored said the statement.
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Rupert Stone retweeted
In the @HarvardIOP Youth poll put out this week: Just 9% of young Americans say the country is headed in the right direction Nearly half (49%) say their personal finances have worsened since the current administration took office. 63% describe their congressional vote as opposition to the president and his policies 77% disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy. Democrats lead Republicans 63% to 26% in the generic ballot. More on the Harvard Youth poll here: iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/l… Gen Z Is Broke and Fed Up With Politics politi.co/4dXO2Tz via @politico
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Rupert Stone retweeted
🇫🇷 France's protests are turning into something MUCH BIGGER than a weekend of unrest. Huge crowds are flooding the streets over soaring living costs and concerns about democracy. In Paris alone, police counted 110,000 demonstrators. And the movement isn't winding down. Protest organizers are already building toward a nationwide GENERAL STRIKE on November 5. What started as street protests is becoming a sustained challenge to the French government. Writer: Oliver
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Politico: Internal polling from both sides show Republicans closing the gap in the Midwest. Democrats are privately warning they might not get 2018-level numbers, a notable shift from their bullish predictions earlier this month. Link to article: politico.com/newsletters/pla…
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Rupert Stone retweeted
Gas prices will remain above $4 a gallon (nat'l average) through the election. That's a significant shift from recent past. Even 2022 was about fifty cents lower November 2026: Likely to be ~$4.30 to $4.40 November 2024: $3.07 November 2022: $3.80 November 2020: $2.11 November 2018: $2.75 November 2016: $2.23 Brent oil prices just spiked to nearly their highest level since the war in Iran began ($116, about $2 off the spring highs). WTI oil price for the US just topped $103, which is about $10 off the spring highs. Bottom line: Oil/gas prices aren't going down until there's a resolution to the war.
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1/ Benjamin Netanyahu got the last set of polls last night. They argue Likud and his block are eroding fast. Then, came his remarks on Israel's economy. These are among the most extraordinary he has made in a long political career. Whatever their intent, they carry real weight for the Israeli economy – before Tuesday's election, and regardless of who forms the next government. In an interview with journalist Roy Katz, aired Friday, the prime minister said American military aid to Israel is coming to an end. "It's over. It's only a question of time," he said. Israelis should get used to no longer receiving tens of billions of dollars in U.S. defense assistance, he added, "because America has changed." That alone is remarkable. There is a growing recognition in Israel that U.S. military aid in its current form will have to change, and might end, as bipartisan support for Israel erodes in Washington. Netanyahu himself has spoken before about wanting to wean Israel off the aid. But there is a distance between that recognition and a sitting prime minister effectively announcing the end of one of the pillars of the U.S.–Israel strategic relationship. The current Memorandum of Understanding – $38 billion over ten years – runs through September 2028. It is embedded in a web of interests that includes the American defense industry, and Israel's diplomats in Washington work hard to sustain it. Israel's friends in Congress, operating in an increasingly difficult political environment, are still fighting to preserve the special relationship. When the prime minister himself says "it's over," that is a hard message for Israel's defense establishment, and for those in Washington still trying to help. And that was only the opening. "There could be sanctions, including banking sanctions," Netanyahu said. Israel, he explained, must prepare an economy capable of bypassing them. This is a different order of magnitude entirely. Some background is needed. In the world of international sanctions, comprehensive banking sanctions against a country are among the most powerful tools available to major powers. They are not import restrictions, consumer boycotts, or even arms embargoes. Broad financial sanctions go after an economy's circulatory system. Israel's banks depend on the global financial system: correspondent banks, clearing, credit lines, the ability to move money across borders. Without access to banks abroad, the Israeli economy stops functioning. And such sanctions don't hit only the banks. They hit everyone who banks with them – companies, exporters, importers, investors, employers. When foreign banks become nervous about a country's financial institutions, they tend to cut ties well beyond what the law strictly requires. In other words, a sweeping financial sanctions regime would push Israel toward the category of Iran or Russia. It would be worse. Iran and Russia sit on vast oil and gas reserves. Even under sanctions, they keep selling – mainly in Asia and parts of the Global South. Israel's economy is not built on commodities. Its strength comes from integration into the global economy: human capital, technology, research, advanced services. According to the Israel Innovation Authority, Israeli high-tech exported roughly $85 billion in goods and services in 2025 – 58 percent of all Israeli exports – and accounted for about half of the economy's growth. It is the engine of the economy, and it depends on foreign markets, foreign capital, and the free movement of money. Netanyahu did not say who might impose banking sanctions. A prime minister raising this possibility, in the same breath as forecasting the end of U.S. aid, should prompt immediate questions. Is he referring to European sanctions? American ones? above all: how did Israel get to the point where this is being discussed at all? There was more - and much worse.
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Unbelievable exchange. Just surreal.
Trump’s ambassador to Turkey repeats the conspiracy theory that the US “took out the Shah” and installed Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979. After saying this, he pauses awkwardly before continuing.
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Rupert Stone retweeted
Trump and Todd Blanche are far more sympathetic to Epstein and Maxwell than to the survivors of their abuse. And now Vivek embraces pthe enabler of abuse and attacks the survivor. MAGA: Making Abuse Great Again.
INSANE. Vivek Ramaswamy says Dr. Acton’s childhood sexual abuse makes her “flawed” while being confronted yesterday
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Rupert Stone retweeted
The investigations begin…
Ukraine losing access to Starshield raises serious concerns for our national security—like who controls critical capabilities the U.S. government has spent billions to procure & how decisions to restrict them are made. I'm demanding answers from the Department of Defense & SpaceX
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Rupert Stone retweeted
Q: Amy Acton's stepfather was indicted for rape. Now that you know all that, sir, do you change your mind about the ad? Trump: No. I don't care
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Andy Haldane interview: **The financial situation is precarious - the penny hasn't dropped in No 10** 'The penny has not yet fully dropped, including in Downing Street. You see that in us having the highest borrowing costs in the G7, despite not having the highest debts and deficits 'It’s the old [Ernest] Hemingway thing, isn’t it? How do you go bankrupt? First slowly, then very quickly. 'Keir [Starmer] lost the dressing room. Andy’s biggest risk is that he loses the dealing room. And then that’s an even more painful way to go, as Liz Truss would tell you.' **Britain is at or close to being taxed out** 'The truth is, as a nation, we are at or close to being taxed out,” he says. “And we are at or close to being maxed out in terms of borrowing. 'So for me, the economics of this are very straightforward. We have a public sector, a government sector with a balance sheet whose productivity has failed to rise this century. And we have a private sector which is actually primed, its balance sheet is in good shape. 'If you want good growth in every postcode — dear God, I want that as much as the next man, probably just as much as Andy in fact — the root is by unlocking those animal spirits and that means a smaller state, lower taxes and that means lower government spending and tough choices around that' **The economy could 'crater' without spending cuts** “This is not a hypothetical risk. Look across the Channel, not just to what’s happening in France, but what’s happening in Greece or Italy or Portugal or Spain a decade and a bit ago. Avoid that like the plague 'Because when you are forced involuntarily into making much more draconian cuts to appease financial markets and get them back on side that will, one, crater the economy. And, two, almost certainly crater your popularity 'That for me is the peril that comes from prevarication on this front. The peril that comes from not using up political capital and making hard choices' **A 'mañana' Budget does not speak to the urgency of now** 'The public finances dimension is of course a real concern for me. I feel the time to get on top of that is now because who knows what might turn up tomorrow. And a mañana budget doesn’t speak to the urgency of now 'The mañana choices will not be easier tomorrow. They’re going to be much harder. So backloading them, crossing your fingers and hoping that the weather turns, for me would not be the preferred course, would not be the prudent course, and risks next year being even more of a heavy lift than would otherwise be the case' **Banking taxes are 'penny wise, pound foolish'** 'The point that actually weighs with me most heavily is that this isn’t just about the banks. If you are felt to be a country that is in the business of doing windfall taxes — if you earn profits, the taxman cometh — that is not a hospitable environment for investors. 'It means you mark down the value of UK businesses and mark up the cost of lending money to those businesses. And that is not a good growth strategy over the medium term. Penny wise, pound foolish' **What does ending 40 years of neoliberalism mean?** 'Have you been to Manchester? You know it’s the embodiment of neoliberalism done well. Success is founded on being a magnetic attractor of capital, or people, of business and culture. That’s what the UK should become' **What does public control of utilities mean?** 'From kind of full fat nationalisation, which would cost an arm and a leg, right through to tinkering with the regulatory rules. If you’re in the water industry, the energy industry, parts of the transport industry, investors are saying, ‘Hang on a sec, I’m not putting money in here.' thetimes.com/uk/politics/art…
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